Small Craft Advisory 201, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement in the short term solutions with the
longwave trough sliding off to the east and high amplitude ridge
building over western Alaska, Eastern Bering Sea, Bering Strait,
Chukchi Sea, and Southwest Arctic. 12/12Z solutions initialized
will against the surface analysis, the biggest discrepancy was
the low near Point Barrow was about 4 mb deeper on the analysis.
As ridge breaks down Wednesday night models start diverging, and
by Thursday there is little agreement, so will need to pick a
model and go with it for now. For the short term will use a blend
sticking with continuity as best we can, and make only minor
changes based on current conditions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 521 dam low over Fort Yukon is riding
southeast down the face of the building ridge and will be over the
AlCan border Crossing by Monday morning, then merges with a 518
dam low over the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge building over the
Bering Sea has an axis that lies from a 581 dam center over the
central Aleutians and the western coast of the Gulf of Anadyr,
then northwest to the New Siberian Islands. The ridge will rotate
east to lie from a 584 dam high in the central Pacific over Dutch
Harbor to Nunivak Island to Wrangel Island, and northwest. By
WEdnesday morning it will lie from the Central Pacific to King
Salmon to Ruby, to Point Lay and northwest. A long wave trough
will dig in behind the ridge moving to lie from over Atka to St
Lawrence Island, then northwest by Wednesday morning. At 850
hpa...A ball of slightly warmer than -10C associated with the low
over Point Barrow will work south and cool and by Tuesday morning
the -10C isotherm will lie from Denali to Point lay with warmer
temperatures to the west, and the zero isotherm will lie from King
Salmon to Emmonak and just north of St Lawrence Island.

Surface...Low pressure system impacting most of northern Alaska is
over Point Barrow with a 994 mb center and will move southeast to
50 nm south of Deadhorse by Monday morning, then over Eagle by
Monday evening at 1022 mb before it merges with low pressure over
the Yukon Territory. The associated front lies from Atqasuk to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Livengood to Tatalina this afternoon and will
not move much tonight. By Monday morning it will lie from Kavik
to Livengood to Lake Minchumina, and by evening it will lie from
Eagle to Delta Junction to Cantwell as it continue to weaken. A
ridge of high pressure will be building in over the Bering Sea
tonight with a 1035 mb center over Red Dog Mine Monday afternoon
and ridging extending south over the Lower Yukon Delta. By Tuesday
morning the high center will be north of Barter Island at 1040 mb,
with ridging extending southwest to Bristol Bay. The high will
move southeast into the Yukon Territory with the ridging
persisting over the Upper Yukon Flats and extending southwest to
Bristol Bay. A weather front will move to the eastern Bering Sea,
Bering Strait, and Western Chukchi Sea Tuesday night with
a trough of low pressure developing over the Arctic Coast. Low
pressure will persist in the Gulf of Alaska.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low pressure system will continue
to spin clouds and snow over the area. Strong winds persisting in
the Brooks Range into Monday before diminishing. Ridge of high
pressure over the western Arctic will build south over the Chukchi
Sea tonight and move over the remainder of the area by Monday
evening. Some clearing skies and much cooler temperatures by
Tuesday as highs fall into the teens and lows to the single digits
or cooler for most areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...Ridging building south over the
area tonight and Monday will bring lighter winds, clearing skies,
and cooler temperatures. A weather front will move to the coast
Tuesday night spreading a mix of rain and snow north through the
Strait over the outside coastal areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow over most of the interior into
Monday evening before it tapers off as the front moves southeast,
then clearing and cooling as high pressure build over the
interior. Some strong gusty winds mainly over the higher elevation
tonight will taper off early Monday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 8...Model guidance is of little
help as models diverge significantly at this time. After some
cooling over the eastern interior mid week, slight warming is
expected. Weather front on the west coast will drag north late in
the week and another low pressure system will move over the top of
ridging over the Central Aleutians to the West Coast. i

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ202.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ208-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ235.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB NOV 17

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