Gale Warning 133, NWS Fairbanks, AK

420 
FZAK52 PAFG 132355
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-141530-
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a strong low over eastern Russia 
will push into the Bering Sea tonight and into the west coast of 
Alaska tomorrow night. A 1001 mb low will move over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula on Wednesday and into the Seward Peninsula Wednesday 
night. A strong area of high pressure will move over the western 
Aleutians Wednesday night before diving to the south. 

$$

PKZ200-141530-
Norton Sound-
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-141530-
Dall Point to Wales-
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog, rain. VSBY 1 NM or less.
Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-141530-
Kotzebue Sound-
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-141530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
255 PM AKST Mon Nov 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Nov 17

344 
FZAK52 PAFG 141302
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150315-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a strong low over eastern Russia 
will push into the Bering Sea tonight and into the west coast of 
Alaska tomorrow night. A 1001 mb low will move over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula on Wednesday and into the Seward Peninsula Wednesday 
night. A strong area of high pressure will move over the western 
Aleutians Wednesday night before diving to the south.

$$

PKZ200-150315-
Norton Sound-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow with rain. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-150315-
Dall Point to Wales-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-150315-
Kotzebue Sound-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-150315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Nov 17

331 
FZAK52 PAFG 141307 CCA
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150315-
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a strong low over eastern Russia 
will push into the Bering Sea today and into the west coast of 
Alaska tonight. A 1001 mb low will move over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula on Wednesday and into the Seward Peninsula Wednesday 
night. A strong area of high pressure will move over the western 
Aleutians Wednesday night before diving to the south.

$$

PKZ200-150315-
Norton Sound-
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow with rain. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-150315-
Dall Point to Wales-
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-150315-
Kotzebue Sound-
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-150315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
407 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Nov 17

294 
FZAK52 PAFG 142318
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-151515-
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front associated with a strong low over eastern Russia 
will push over the west coast of Alaska tonight. A 1001 mb low 
will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula on Wednesday and into the 
Seward Peninsula Wednesday night. A strong area of high pressure 
will move over the western Aleutians Wednesday night.


$$

PKZ200-151515-
Norton Sound-
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow with rain. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-151515-
Dall Point to Wales-
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt becoming SW. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-151515-
Kotzebue Sound-
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-151515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
218 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog and freezing fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Nov 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Sun Nov 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement in the short term solutions with the
longwave trough sliding off to the east and high amplitude ridge
building over western Alaska, Eastern Bering Sea, Bering Strait,
Chukchi Sea, and Southwest Arctic. 12/12Z solutions initialized
will against the surface analysis, the biggest discrepancy was
the low near Point Barrow was about 4 mb deeper on the analysis.
As ridge breaks down Wednesday night models start diverging, and
by Thursday there is little agreement, so will need to pick a
model and go with it for now. For the short term will use a blend
sticking with continuity as best we can, and make only minor
changes based on current conditions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 521 dam low over Fort Yukon is riding
southeast down the face of the building ridge and will be over the
AlCan border Crossing by Monday morning, then merges with a 518
dam low over the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge building over the
Bering Sea has an axis that lies from a 581 dam center over the
central Aleutians and the western coast of the Gulf of Anadyr,
then northwest to the New Siberian Islands. The ridge will rotate
east to lie from a 584 dam high in the central Pacific over Dutch
Harbor to Nunivak Island to Wrangel Island, and northwest. By
WEdnesday morning it will lie from the Central Pacific to King
Salmon to Ruby, to Point Lay and northwest. A long wave trough
will dig in behind the ridge moving to lie from over Atka to St
Lawrence Island, then northwest by Wednesday morning. At 850
hpa...A ball of slightly warmer than -10C associated with the low
over Point Barrow will work south and cool and by Tuesday morning
the -10C isotherm will lie from Denali to Point lay with warmer
temperatures to the west, and the zero isotherm will lie from King
Salmon to Emmonak and just north of St Lawrence Island.

Surface...Low pressure system impacting most of northern Alaska is
over Point Barrow with a 994 mb center and will move southeast to
50 nm south of Deadhorse by Monday morning, then over Eagle by
Monday evening at 1022 mb before it merges with low pressure over
the Yukon Territory. The associated front lies from Atqasuk to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Livengood to Tatalina this afternoon and will
not move much tonight. By Monday morning it will lie from Kavik
to Livengood to Lake Minchumina, and by evening it will lie from
Eagle to Delta Junction to Cantwell as it continue to weaken. A
ridge of high pressure will be building in over the Bering Sea
tonight with a 1035 mb center over Red Dog Mine Monday afternoon
and ridging extending south over the Lower Yukon Delta. By Tuesday
morning the high center will be north of Barter Island at 1040 mb,
with ridging extending southwest to Bristol Bay. The high will
move southeast into the Yukon Territory with the ridging
persisting over the Upper Yukon Flats and extending southwest to
Bristol Bay. A weather front will move to the eastern Bering Sea,
Bering Strait, and Western Chukchi Sea Tuesday night with
a trough of low pressure developing over the Arctic Coast. Low
pressure will persist in the Gulf of Alaska.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low pressure system will continue
to spin clouds and snow over the area. Strong winds persisting in
the Brooks Range into Monday before diminishing. Ridge of high
pressure over the western Arctic will build south over the Chukchi
Sea tonight and move over the remainder of the area by Monday
evening. Some clearing skies and much cooler temperatures by
Tuesday as highs fall into the teens and lows to the single digits
or cooler for most areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...Ridging building south over the
area tonight and Monday will bring lighter winds, clearing skies,
and cooler temperatures. A weather front will move to the coast
Tuesday night spreading a mix of rain and snow north through the
Strait over the outside coastal areas.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow over most of the interior into
Monday evening before it tapers off as the front moves southeast,
then clearing and cooling as high pressure build over the
interior. Some strong gusty winds mainly over the higher elevation
tonight will taper off early Monday.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 8...Model guidance is of little
help as models diverge significantly at this time. After some
cooling over the eastern interior mid week, slight warming is
expected. Weather front on the west coast will drag north late in
the week and another low pressure system will move over the top of
ridging over the Central Aleutians to the West Coast. i

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ202.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ208-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ235.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB NOV 17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
956 PM AKST SUN NOV 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     SNOW             4 NNW FAIRBANKS         64.89N 147.68W
11/12/2017  M5.5 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED 5.5 INCHES SINCE 3AM WITH A WATER
            EQUIV OF 0.33. TOTAL SNOW OF 10" ON THE
            GROUND.

&&

HFL