Gale Warning 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

139 
FZAK51 PAFG 291227
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-300215-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 mb low 230 NM N of Barrow will move east over the Beaufort 
Sea and will be a 1002 mb low 400 NM E of Banks Island Sat 
evening.

$$

PKZ225-300215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-300215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-300215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-300215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-300215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
427 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 17

225 
FZAK51 PAFG 292240
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-301415-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 mb low 250 NM NE of Barrow will continue to move northeast 
over the Beaufort Sea tonight and will be a 1000 mb low 400 NM N 
of Demarcation Point Saturday evening.

$$

PKZ225-301415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-301415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-301415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-301415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-301415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
240 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

CCC Sep 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High surf on the western arctic slope, along with gusty winds and
snow north of the Brooks Range will be the main weather concern
over northern Alaska through the weekend.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a 512 dm low 250 nm northwest of Barrow with a
strong shortwave extending southeast and south of the low from
near Nuiqsut to Anaktuvuk Pass will continue to move south and
east as the shortwave sweeps east over the eastern north slope
and central interior Friday and eastern interior Friday night.
850 mb temperatures will drop behind the shortwave with Prudhoe
Bay dropping from around 5 below this evening to around 11 below
Friday morning. 850 mb temperatures will also drop over the
western and central interior behind the front with the 850 mb
temperature dropping from around zero this evening at Fairbanks to
4 below Friday morning and to around 8 below Saturday morning. An
upper level ridge builds in Friday over the eastern Bering Sea
and over the west coast and western interior Saturday. As the
ridge builds in over the interior 850 mb temperatures will rise
over Fairbanks from around 8 below Saturday morning to 4 below
Sunday morning and 4 above Monday morning.

On the surface, A 989 mb low 250 nm northwest of Barrow will move
east to be 200 nm north of Barrow as a 990 mb low Friday morning
and 300 nm north of Prudhoe Bay as a 992 mb low Friday evening.
The low moves northeast to be 400 nm north of Demarcation point
Saturday morning. Strong west to northwest winds will continue
this evening and Friday over the northwest coast where high surf
advisories and strong wind headlines have been issued. At this
point model guidance continue to track the low northeast which
will produce southwest winds over the eastern north slope which
will limit the potential for high surf along the eastern north
slope. Model guidance continues to show considerable spread on the
track of this low and a shift closer to the eastern north slope
coast would bring stronger winds and westerly along shore winds
which would produce higher water levels along the eastern north
slope coast. Continue to monitor the track of the low.

High Surf Advisories have been issued for the western Arctic from
Barrow west for this evening through Friday afternoon/evening.
Northwest winds continue to increase this evening to 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 45 mph by the evening with and seas building to
8 feet by tonight. Models continue to indicate a storm surge of
around 1 to 2 feet along the coast to the west of Barrow with wave
run up over normal high tide levels.

relatively warm water along the coast will limit snow fall
accumulations along the immediate coast line where 1 to 2 inches
of snow is expected. Further inland and especially over the
northeast Brooks Range where west to northwest winds will increase
upslope effects increase snow fall totals where 3 to 5 inches of
snow are expected through Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
accompany the snow however the relatively warm temperatures will
limit blowing snow in most areas.

In the interior a stalled occluded front stretching from near
Eagle to Fairbanks to Denali Park continues to produce light rain
over a large area of the central interior. As the strong shortwave
rotating around the upper level low north of Barrow pushes into
the western interior this evening and the central interior late
tonight and Friday mornings, snow levels will drop. Snow levels
over Fairbanks will drop from around 3,500 feet this evening to
valley level north and west of Fairbanks and around 1,000 feet
tomorrow morning over Fairbanks. Rain may mix with snow at valley
level in Fairbanks tonight and will likely turn to snow over the
hills around Fairbanks tonight before ending late tomorrow
morning. A second shortwave rotating around the the upper level
low north Prudhoe Bay will bring a another chance of snow over the
interior including Fairbanks area Friday night and Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CCC SEP 17