Gale Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

670 
FZAK52 PAFG 041346
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-050015-
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND TRACK NEAR BARROW AS A 1011 MB LOW BY THURSDAY 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-050015-
NORTON SOUND-
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-050015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-050015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-050015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
446 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JAN 17

426 
FZAK52 PAFG 042226
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051500-
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE E WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING TO POINT HOPE TONIGHT. A 1050 MB RIDGE
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL EXTEND N TO A 1043 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF
ANADYR TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE E OVER THE WEST COAST THU
MORNING...THEN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE A 1055 MB CENTER OVER
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THROUGH FRI.
 
$$

PKZ200-051500-
NORTON SOUND-
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-051500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-051500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-051500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
126 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

SDB JAN 17

154 
FZAK52 PAFG 051316
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-060030-
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ200-060030-
NORTON SOUND-
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-060030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-060030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-060030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
416 AM AKST THU JAN 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JAN 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a ridge over mainland Alaska
and a trough over NE Russia and the Sea of Okhotsk will retrograde
Wed and Thu with the ridge moving west over the eastern Bering Sea
and West Coast of Alaska by Thu. The ridge will then become higher
amplitude and morph into an omega block over the West Coast of
Alaska by the weekend.

Several strong short waves and their associated surface systems will
move east through the ridge over the next several days bringing
rapidly changing weather to northern Alaska through Thu and
keeping temperatures well above normal. Weather will become much
drier and quieter by Fri with valley surface temperatures falling
to below normal in the Interior while the coasts and hills remain
above normal under this ridge. These dry conditions will persist
into next week under the blocking ridge.

Surface...
A 989 mb low 600 nm north of Barter Island will move northeast.
A polar front stretching from the low to Banks Island to Barter
Island to Bethel will move to Old Crow to Chandalar Lake to
McGrath by 3am Wed...and to Dawson to Tok by 3pm Wed then
continuing SE. Expect 2-3 inches of snow with this front.

High pressure over the West Coast will build over the Interior
west of the front tonight and Wed causing rapid clearing.

An Arctic Cold front stretching from the low to Barrow to
Provideniya will move to Barter Island to Point Lay by 3am Wed and
then move north of the Arctic Coast as an arctic warm front Wed.
Expect minor blowing snow and sw winds g25 kt with the cold front.
winds will decrease and will see a chance of snow with the warm
front.

A 1008 mb low in the far western Bering Sea will move to just west
of Anadyr as a 1006 mb low by 3am wed...to just southeast of
Wrangel Island as a 1007 mb low by 3pm Wed...to 100 nm north of
Barrow as a 1010 mb low by 3am Thu...and to Banks Island as a 1014
mb low by 3pm Thu. A cold front stretching south from the low will
move to Point Hope to Gambell by 3pm Wed...to Deadhorse to Bettles to
the Yukon Delta by 3am Thu...and then move to Banks Island to
Northway to Glennallen by 3pm Thu. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with
the front along with significant winds and blowing snow. Will see
south winds 40-50 kt with the front in zones 213 and 207 Wed pm
and will issue bliz watch for this. Across the remainder of the
west coast and the interior will see west 30-40 mph winds and
significant blowing snow with the front leading to winter weather
advisory for zones 208 209 210 211 212 216 and 217 for Wed pm. At
this time looks like will see similar conditions in the Eastern
Interior Thu but will issue SPS at this time since it is two days
out and less certain.

Will issue Bliz watch for all of North Slope for Wed night in zone
201 and Thu for the remainder. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
with significant blowing snow and west winds 40-50 mph. At Barter
island could see gusts to 70 mph Thu making this and extreme
blizzard.

A 1055 mb high building over the West Coast of Alaska Thu will
build over Interior Alaska Thu night and Fri. This will add to
the strong winds in the Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic
Coast Thu that will decrease overnight. Will see clearing under
this high. Pressures this high means that altimeter settings will
be over 31.00 inches over the West Coast Thu and over the Interior
and North Slope Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutions through
3pm Thu. Good agreement between models on the long wave pattern
continues through the weekend on with slight differences on short
waves in the western Bering and NE Russia from Thu night on but
little affect on Northern AK. Precipitation patterns similar
through Fri and we will use GFS for amounts.

At the surface models initialize well at the surface except for
all models being 6-8 mb too weak over the Copper River Basin.
For this reason gap flow through the Alaska Range passes will be
much stronger than models indicate through tonight. Models similar
through 3am Thu...then start to see differences in speed and
strength of low moving east across the Arctic Coast Thu. Favor the
faster movement shown by the ECMF and NAM on this low Thu. What
this means is that there will be a larger isolobaric jump in the
Eastern Arctic Coast with the potential for very strong barrier
jet winds at Kaktovik on Thu. Will bump up winds on the Eastern
Arctic Thu as a result.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf possible at Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with
SW gales.

Elevated water levels along the southern Chukchi Sea Wed night
and Thu but will not be as high as with the storm of last weekend
and no flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 17