Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a ridge over mainland Alaska
and a trough over NE Russia and the Sea of Okhotsk will retrograde
Wed and Thu with the ridge moving west over the eastern Bering Sea
and West Coast of Alaska by Thu. The ridge will then become higher
amplitude and morph into an omega block over the West Coast of
Alaska by the weekend.

Several strong short waves and their associated surface systems will
move east through the ridge over the next several days bringing
rapidly changing weather to northern Alaska through Thu and
keeping temperatures well above normal. Weather will become much
drier and quieter by Fri with valley surface temperatures falling
to below normal in the Interior while the coasts and hills remain
above normal under this ridge. These dry conditions will persist
into next week under the blocking ridge.

Surface...
A 989 mb low 600 nm north of Barter Island will move northeast.
A polar front stretching from the low to Banks Island to Barter
Island to Bethel will move to Old Crow to Chandalar Lake to
McGrath by 3am Wed...and to Dawson to Tok by 3pm Wed then
continuing SE. Expect 2-3 inches of snow with this front.

High pressure over the West Coast will build over the Interior
west of the front tonight and Wed causing rapid clearing.

An Arctic Cold front stretching from the low to Barrow to
Provideniya will move to Barter Island to Point Lay by 3am Wed and
then move north of the Arctic Coast as an arctic warm front Wed.
Expect minor blowing snow and sw winds g25 kt with the cold front.
winds will decrease and will see a chance of snow with the warm
front.

A 1008 mb low in the far western Bering Sea will move to just west
of Anadyr as a 1006 mb low by 3am wed...to just southeast of
Wrangel Island as a 1007 mb low by 3pm Wed...to 100 nm north of
Barrow as a 1010 mb low by 3am Thu...and to Banks Island as a 1014
mb low by 3pm Thu. A cold front stretching south from the low will
move to Point Hope to Gambell by 3pm Wed...to Deadhorse to Bettles to
the Yukon Delta by 3am Thu...and then move to Banks Island to
Northway to Glennallen by 3pm Thu. Expect 2-4 inches of snow with
the front along with significant winds and blowing snow. Will see
south winds 40-50 kt with the front in zones 213 and 207 Wed pm
and will issue bliz watch for this. Across the remainder of the
west coast and the interior will see west 30-40 mph winds and
significant blowing snow with the front leading to winter weather
advisory for zones 208 209 210 211 212 216 and 217 for Wed pm. At
this time looks like will see similar conditions in the Eastern
Interior Thu but will issue SPS at this time since it is two days
out and less certain.

Will issue Bliz watch for all of North Slope for Wed night in zone
201 and Thu for the remainder. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
with significant blowing snow and west winds 40-50 mph. At Barter
island could see gusts to 70 mph Thu making this and extreme
blizzard.

A 1055 mb high building over the West Coast of Alaska Thu will
build over Interior Alaska Thu night and Fri. This will add to
the strong winds in the Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic
Coast Thu that will decrease overnight. Will see clearing under
this high. Pressures this high means that altimeter settings will
be over 31.00 inches over the West Coast Thu and over the Interior
and North Slope Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutions through
3pm Thu. Good agreement between models on the long wave pattern
continues through the weekend on with slight differences on short
waves in the western Bering and NE Russia from Thu night on but
little affect on Northern AK. Precipitation patterns similar
through Fri and we will use GFS for amounts.

At the surface models initialize well at the surface except for
all models being 6-8 mb too weak over the Copper River Basin.
For this reason gap flow through the Alaska Range passes will be
much stronger than models indicate through tonight. Models similar
through 3am Thu...then start to see differences in speed and
strength of low moving east across the Arctic Coast Thu. Favor the
faster movement shown by the ECMF and NAM on this low Thu. What
this means is that there will be a larger isolobaric jump in the
Eastern Arctic Coast with the potential for very strong barrier
jet winds at Kaktovik on Thu. Will bump up winds on the Eastern
Arctic Thu as a result.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf possible at Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with
SW gales.

Elevated water levels along the southern Chukchi Sea Wed night
and Thu but will not be as high as with the storm of last weekend
and no flooding expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

AKZ218>226-041500-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including...Arctic Village...Wiseman...Coldfoot...
Chandalar DOT Camp...Iniakuk Lake...Allakaket...Hughes...
Bettles...Caribou Mountain...Gobblers Knob...Fort Yukon...
Venetie...Central...Circle...Stevens Village...Beaver...
Chalkyitsik...Birch Creek...Circle Hot Springs...Eagle Summit...
Twelvemile Summit...Nenana...Anderson...Tanana...Minto...
Manley Hot Springs...Rampart...Lake Minchumina...Livengood...
Fairbanks...Fort Wainwright...Eielson AFB...Ester...North Pole...
Moose Creek...Two Rivers...Fox...Chatanika...Chena Hot Springs...
Sourdough Camp...Salcha...Delta Junction...Fort Greely...
Harding/Birch Lake...Dry Creek...Dot Lake...Healy Lake...Tok...
Tanacross...Eagle...Tetlin...Northway...Alcan...Chicken...
Boundary...Healy...Denali National Park...Carlo Creek...
Kantishna...Mentasta Lake...Black Rapids...Donnelly Dome...
Trims DOT Camp...Eagle Trail...Mineral Lake
318 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

...Blowing Snow and Gusty Winds in the Eastern Interior Thursday...

West winds gusting 30 to 40 mph along with snow and blowing snow
are expected in the Eastern Interior Thursday. Low visibility in
blowing snow and heavy drifting snow are expected.

A strong cold front is expected to move east across Alaska from
Wednesday night through Thursday. The front will move east to the
Central Interior after midnight Wednesday night and then continue
moving east across the Eastern Interior on Thursday. Several
inches of snow are expected with the front along with the strong
gusty winds. The strongest winds are expected along the Brooks
Range and the Alaska Range. Winds will drop off Thursday night.

The strongest winds in Fairbanks are expected Thursday morning.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

AKZ218>226-041500-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including...Arctic Village...Wiseman...Coldfoot...
Chandalar DOT Camp...Iniakuk Lake...Allakaket...Hughes...
Bettles...Caribou Mountain...Gobblers Knob...Fort Yukon...
Venetie...Central...Circle...Stevens Village...Beaver...
Chalkyitsik...Birch Creek...Circle Hot Springs...Eagle Summit...
Twelvemile Summit...Nenana...Anderson...Tanana...Minto...
Manley Hot Springs...Rampart...Lake Minchumina...Livengood...
Fairbanks...Fort Wainwright...Eielson AFB...Ester...North Pole...
Moose Creek...Two Rivers...Fox...Chatanika...Chena Hot Springs...
Sourdough Camp...Salcha...Delta Junction...Fort Greely...
Harding/Birch Lake...Dry Creek...Dot Lake...Healy Lake...Tok...
Tanacross...Eagle...Tetlin...Northway...Alcan...Chicken...
Boundary...Healy...Denali National Park...Carlo Creek...
Kantishna...Mentasta Lake...Black Rapids...Donnelly Dome...
Trims DOT Camp...Eagle Trail...Mineral Lake
330 PM AKST Tue Jan 3 2017

...Blowing Snow and Gusty Winds in the Eastern Interior Thursday...

West winds gusting 30 to 40 mph along with snow and blowing snow
are expected in the Eastern Interior Thursday. Low visibility in
blowing snow and heavy drifting snow are expected.

A strong cold front is expected to move east across Alaska from
Wednesday night through Thursday. The front will move east to the
Central Interior after midnight Wednesday night and then continue
moving east across the Eastern Interior on Thursday. Several
inches of snow are expected with the front along with the strong
gusty winds. The strongest winds are expected along the Brooks
Range and the Alaska Range. Winds will drop off Thursday night.

The strongest winds in Fairbanks are expected Thursday morning
when gusts to 30 mph are expected.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 PM AKST TUE JAN 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    KOTLIK                  63.03N 163.55W
12/29/2016                                      AK   PUBLIC

            BERING SEA STORM HIT KOTLIK ON DEC 29TH 2016 BETWEEN
            9PM-10PM. STRONG S-SW WINDS 50-65 MPH DEVELOPED OVER THE
            BERING SEA AND MOVED INTO THE YUKON RIVER DELTA CAUSING
            COASTAL FLOODING WITH YET ANOTHER STORM MOVING TO THE
            REGION THE FOLLOWING DAY. THE STORM SURGE CASUED MINOR
            FLOODING IN KOTLIK THE FOLLOWING DAY.

0900 PM     COASTAL FLOOD    KOTLIK                  63.03N 163.55W
12/30/2016                                      AK   PUBLIC

            ON DEC 30 AND 31ST 2016 KOTLIK ALASKA EXPERIENCE HIGH S
            AND SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH FROM THE BERING SEA
            STORM 12/29/16 TO 12/31/16. WHICH LATER CAUSED COASTAL
            FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING SOUTH OF KOTLIK ON DECEMBER
            30TH AND 3ST BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM BOTH DAYS.

&&

EPLUMB