Gale Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

573 
FZAK51 PAFG 032353
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-041500-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 989 MB LOW 600 NM OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CHUKCHI SEA AS
A 1007 MB LOW BY 3PM WED...TO 100 NM OF BARROW AS A 1010 MB LOW
BY 3AM THU AND TO NEAR BANKS ISLAND AS A 1014 MB LOW BY 3PM THU. 

$$

PKZ225-041500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-041500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KTS. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-041500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-041500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-041500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
253 PM AKST TUE JAN 3 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.FRI...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

LTH/JB JAN 17

754 
FZAK51 PAFG 041345
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-050015-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1012 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND TRACK NEAR BARROW AS A 1011 MB LOW BY THURSDAY 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ225-050015-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-050015-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT. FREEZING FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-050015-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-050015-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-050015-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
445 AM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

JAN 17

847 
FZAK51 PAFG 042214
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-051315-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO 100 NM N OF
BARROW TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST NEAR POINT HOPE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA THU WITH THE FRONT
DRAGGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. A 1043 MB HIGH WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND WESTERN ARCTIC. A VERY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
AND MOVE W TO E BEHIND THE LOW.

$$

PKZ225-051315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1
NM OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-051315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-051315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-051315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-051315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
114 PM AKST WED JAN 4 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...W WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

SDB JAN 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a high amplitude ridge over
mainland Alaska and a trough over NE Russia and the Sea of
Okhotsk. The ridge will retrograde over the West Coast and Bering
Sea Wed and Thu as a series of short waves make their way through
the ridge. This pattern means that the significantly above normal
temperatures over the West Coast will remain warm through the
weekend...while the North Slope cools to but remains above normal
and Interior Alaska will cool to near normal by late in the week.
It also means that the active weather pattern will persist through
mid-week then become drier and more typical late in the week.

Surface...
A 985 mb low north of Wrangel Island will move northeast and
weaken. A front extending from the low to near Banks Island then
back west to a frontal wave 100 nm west of Wainwright then south
to Kotzebue and to the Yukon Delta. The front will move to
Demarcation Point to Bettles to Anvik by 3am Tue. There will be a
snow just west of the front and a mix of rain and snow along and
just southeast of the front. There will be a chance of freezing
rain tonight in zones 216 219 221 and 226. There will be 4 inches
of snow along the south slopes of the Brooks range tonight as
well with 1-2 inches to the south along the front. Expect only a
chance of precipitation north of the Brooks range due to downslope
conditions.

The front will move to Arctic Village to Bettles to Anvik by 3pm
Tue...to Old Crow to Fort Yukon to McGrath by 3am Wed...and to
Dawson to Northway by 3pm Wed. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
thisfront as it moves east...with the heaviest amounts north and
west of Fairbanks. Also expect northwest winds 10-20kt along the
front.

A 995 mb low just south of Wrangel Island will move to 300 nm
north of Barrow as a 1002 mb low by 3am Tue...and to 500 nm north
of Barter Island as a 1000 mb low by 3pm Tue. Expect southwest
winds 30-40kt along with scattered snow showers and blowing snow
along and south of this low over NW Alaska tonight...and west
winds 25 to 35 kt and blowing snow along the Arctic Coast Tue.
Due to recent warm temperatures do not expect these winds to
create Blizzard conditions but will drop visibility to below a
mile for a short period.

A third low developing in northeast Russia Tue will move to the
central Chukchi Sea as a 1023 mb low by 3am Wed...and to 100 nm
North of Barter Island as a 1022 mb by 3pm Wed. Expect scattered
snow showers and blowing snow with this feature along with southwest
to west winds 25-35 kt over the Arctic Coast Wed.

A fourth low in the western Bering Tue will move to just west of
Anadyr as a 1008 mb low by 3am Wed...into the Central Chukchi Sea
as a 1011 mb low by 3pm Wed...to near Barrow as a 1014 mb low by
3am Thu and to the southern Beaufort Sea by 3pm Thu. Expect
several inches of snow with this feature from the Bering Strait to
Point Hope Alaska Wed and Wed Nigh and over the North Slope Thu.
Expect winds of 40kt with this features along with blowing snow
and a potential for Blizzard conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutionsthrough
3pm Wed. After that time the long range pattern remains similar
through the weekend but with differences in timing and strength of
short waves. Will use the GFS solution through Thu.

At the surface models initialize well at 18Z...except that all
models initialize 8 mb too weak on surface high over the Copper
River Basin. The stronger surface high is resulting in stronger
gap winds through the the Alaska Range passes than models would
otherwise indicate for the next day. Models show similar
solutions through 3am Wed...then ECMF and NAM are faster than the
GFS moving a surface low from NE Russia eastward across the north
slope on Wed and Thu. Will use the GFS at appears to track under
the supporting short wave. The GFS keeps the surface low center
closer to the Arctic Coast of Alaska...and this brings stronger
winds with it Wed and Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf possible at Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with
SW gales.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ211-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 17