Gale Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKST Mon Jan 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a high amplitude ridge over
mainland Alaska and a trough over NE Russia and the Sea of
Okhotsk. The ridge will retrograde over the West Coast and Bering
Sea Wed and Thu as a series of short waves make their way through
the ridge. This pattern means that the significantly above normal
temperatures over the West Coast will remain warm through the
weekend...while the North Slope cools to but remains above normal
and Interior Alaska will cool to near normal by late in the week.
It also means that the active weather pattern will persist through
mid-week then become drier and more typical late in the week.

Surface...
A 985 mb low north of Wrangel Island will move northeast and
weaken. A front extending from the low to near Banks Island then
back west to a frontal wave 100 nm west of Wainwright then south
to Kotzebue and to the Yukon Delta. The front will move to
Demarcation Point to Bettles to Anvik by 3am Tue. There will be a
snow just west of the front and a mix of rain and snow along and
just southeast of the front. There will be a chance of freezing
rain tonight in zones 216 219 221 and 226. There will be 4 inches
of snow along the south slopes of the Brooks range tonight as
well with 1-2 inches to the south along the front. Expect only a
chance of precipitation north of the Brooks range due to downslope
conditions.

The front will move to Arctic Village to Bettles to Anvik by 3pm
Tue...to Old Crow to Fort Yukon to McGrath by 3am Wed...and to
Dawson to Northway by 3pm Wed. Expect 2-4 inches of snow along
thisfront as it moves east...with the heaviest amounts north and
west of Fairbanks. Also expect northwest winds 10-20kt along the
front.

A 995 mb low just south of Wrangel Island will move to 300 nm
north of Barrow as a 1002 mb low by 3am Tue...and to 500 nm north
of Barter Island as a 1000 mb low by 3pm Tue. Expect southwest
winds 30-40kt along with scattered snow showers and blowing snow
along and south of this low over NW Alaska tonight...and west
winds 25 to 35 kt and blowing snow along the Arctic Coast Tue.
Due to recent warm temperatures do not expect these winds to
create Blizzard conditions but will drop visibility to below a
mile for a short period.

A third low developing in northeast Russia Tue will move to the
central Chukchi Sea as a 1023 mb low by 3am Wed...and to 100 nm
North of Barter Island as a 1022 mb by 3pm Wed. Expect scattered
snow showers and blowing snow with this feature along with southwest
to west winds 25-35 kt over the Arctic Coast Wed.

A fourth low in the western Bering Tue will move to just west of
Anadyr as a 1008 mb low by 3am Wed...into the Central Chukchi Sea
as a 1011 mb low by 3pm Wed...to near Barrow as a 1014 mb low by
3am Thu and to the southern Beaufort Sea by 3pm Thu. Expect
several inches of snow with this feature from the Bering Strait to
Point Hope Alaska Wed and Wed Nigh and over the North Slope Thu.
Expect winds of 40kt with this features along with blowing snow
and a potential for Blizzard conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 500 mb models initialize well and show similar solutionsthrough
3pm Wed. After that time the long range pattern remains similar
through the weekend but with differences in timing and strength of
short waves. Will use the GFS solution through Thu.

At the surface models initialize well at 18Z...except that all
models initialize 8 mb too weak on surface high over the Copper
River Basin. The stronger surface high is resulting in stronger
gap winds through the the Alaska Range passes than models would
otherwise indicate for the next day. Models show similar
solutions through 3am Wed...then ECMF and NAM are faster than the
GFS moving a surface low from NE Russia eastward across the north
slope on Wed and Thu. Will use the GFS at appears to track under
the supporting short wave. The GFS keeps the surface low center
closer to the Arctic Coast of Alaska...and this brings stronger
winds with it Wed and Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf possible at Gambell and in the Bering Strait Wed with
SW gales.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ211-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 17