Gale Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

058 
FZAK52 PAFG 152347
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161230-
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST RUSSIA WILL WEAKEN MONDAY. A 
994 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF MCKENZIE BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND 
WEAKEN MONDAY. A 965 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER PRINCE WILLIAM 
SOUND MONDAY.

$$

PKZ200-161230-
NORTON SOUND-
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-161230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-161230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-161230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
247 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC JAN 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Model spread with the 12 model suite remains limited in the short
range and mid range however there are significant timing errors
with model precipitation and model precipitation location which
allowed for very poor model initialization at 12z and verification
at 18z.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a 489 DAM low remains parked over western Alaska
with strongly divergent flow at 500 HPA on the east side of the
upper level low just north of Fairbanks. Satellite and Radar
signatures confirm this with bands of heavy snow developing over
Fairbanks and moving north. At 700 HPA very moist south to
southwest flow aided by the divergent 500 HPA flow has overcome
typical downsloping and drying effect typical of southerly flow.
At 850 mb flow continues out of the east to northeast with upslope
flow found along the eastern Alaska Range where a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for snow and blowing snow through the
passes. The divergence aloft and moist southwest flow have helped
verify the Winter Weather Advisories for the remainder of the
central and eastern interior. Cold winds through the passes in the
eastern Brooks Range have brought wind chill values down to
around 45 below where a Wind Chill Advisory has been updated to a
Winter Weather Advisory for both Wind Chills and for snow and
blowing snow through noon Sunday. Snow will diminish later this
evening for most of the central interior however will need to
monitor winds over the interior highway summits as winds may pick
up again as they shift to the southwest this evening.

Much the same story on the north slope where Wind Chill Advisories
have been updated to Winter Weather Advisories for both wind
chill and snow and blowing snow as the area of divergence aloft
combined with a strong upper level trough sweep an area of light
snow north onto the north slope. Temperatures remain cold enough
combined with winds to create wind chill values around 50 below.
Conditions are expected to improve as winds decrease and
temperatures increase Sunday afternoon.

Over the western interior an upper level low continues to move
north over Kotzebue Sound with cold and cloudy with light snow or
flurries expected to continue through Sunday. Strong north winds
continue through the Bering Strait with wind gusts to 55 mph and
heavy snow squalls ongoing and expected to continue into Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 17