Brisk Wind Advisory 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
251 PM AKST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Model spread with the 12 model suite remains limited in the short
range and mid range however there are significant timing errors
with model precipitation and model precipitation location which
allowed for very poor model initialization at 12z and verification
at 18z.

Aloft at 500 HPA, a 489 DAM low remains parked over western Alaska
with strongly divergent flow at 500 HPA on the east side of the
upper level low just north of Fairbanks. Satellite and Radar
signatures confirm this with bands of heavy snow developing over
Fairbanks and moving north. At 700 HPA very moist south to
southwest flow aided by the divergent 500 HPA flow has overcome
typical downsloping and drying effect typical of southerly flow.
At 850 mb flow continues out of the east to northeast with upslope
flow found along the eastern Alaska Range where a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for snow and blowing snow through the
passes. The divergence aloft and moist southwest flow have helped
verify the Winter Weather Advisories for the remainder of the
central and eastern interior. Cold winds through the passes in the
eastern Brooks Range have brought wind chill values down to
around 45 below where a Wind Chill Advisory has been updated to a
Winter Weather Advisory for both Wind Chills and for snow and
blowing snow through noon Sunday. Snow will diminish later this
evening for most of the central interior however will need to
monitor winds over the interior highway summits as winds may pick
up again as they shift to the southwest this evening.

Much the same story on the north slope where Wind Chill Advisories
have been updated to Winter Weather Advisories for both wind
chill and snow and blowing snow as the area of divergence aloft
combined with a strong upper level trough sweep an area of light
snow north onto the north slope. Temperatures remain cold enough
combined with winds to create wind chill values around 50 below.
Conditions are expected to improve as winds decrease and
temperatures increase Sunday afternoon.

Over the western interior an upper level low continues to move
north over Kotzebue Sound with cold and cloudy with light snow or
flurries expected to continue through Sunday. Strong north winds
continue through the Bering Strait with wind gusts to 55 mph and
heavy snow squalls ongoing and expected to continue into Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 17