Gale Warning 171, NWS Fairbanks, AK

802 
FZAK52 PAFG 230035
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231545-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 977 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move to 250 nm west 
of Gambell as a 986 mb low by 3am Sat, and to just south of 
Wrangel Island as a 993 mb low by 3pm Sat. A low in the Gulf of 
Alaska will move to Nunivak Island as a 990 mb low by 3pm Sat, to 
near Savoonga as a 1002 mb low by 3pm Sun, then dissipate.

$$

PKZ200-231545-
Norton Sound-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-231545-
Dall Point to Wales-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
rain. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-231545-
Kotzebue Sound-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 35 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231545-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
335 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing 
spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

601 
FZAK52 PAFG 231301
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-240300-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure remains over mainland Alaska with a 1032 mb high 
over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 984 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr 
will move NW. A 988 mb Low near Sand Point will move to Nunivak 
Island this afternoon, and to St Lawrence Island late this 
evening. This will pinch the gradient over the Eastern Bering Sea,
Bering Strait and Norton Sound. Weak troughing will move over the
area Sun night.

$$

PKZ200-240300-
Norton Sound-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-240300-
Dall Point to Wales-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
rain. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-240300-
Kotzebue Sound-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-240300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 23 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing 
snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...A strong long wave ridge extending from the Eastern
Pacific into Eastern Alaska, and long wave trough over the NW
Pacific and Bering Sea will persist through the weekend. The ridge
will weaken slowly next week as the trough progresses slowly
east. A series of strong short wave troughs will move from the
Gulf of Alaska northwest over the Bering Sea through the weekend.
Strong surface systems will accompany each short wave, and the
weather with each will be mentioned in the surface section below.

This pattern means that well above normal temperatures will
persist through the weekend over Northern Alaska, then drop slowly
next week but still remain above normal. It also means that the
Interior will be generally dry through the weekend.

Temperatures aloft will be above freezing over the Interior and
North Slope through the weekend, causing very strong inversions.
On the West Coast, temperatures will be above freezing closer to
the surface making for a mix of precipitation through the weekend.

Surface...
A 1006 mb low 150 nm north of Barrow will move to 300 nm north of
Demarcation Point as a 1023 mb low by 3am Fri, then dissipate. A
cold front trailing from this low to Umiat will move north of the
coast this evening. In the southeast quadrant of this low
including the eastern North Slope, southwest winds gusting to 40
mph will decrease this evening as the low moves north of the
coast. Blowing snow will decrease as well.

A 992 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move to near Wrangel
Island as a 1003 mb low by 3am Fri, then continue northwest. Gale
force SE winds and mixed rain and snow area occuring along the the
western Capes of West Coast east of this low and will spread
northwest tonight.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the Gulf of
Anadyr as a 973 mb low by 3pm Fri, and to just southwest of
Wrangel Island as a 992 mb low by 3pm Sat. An occluded front
stretching southeast from this low will move to Provideniya to the
southeast Bering by 3pm Fri, and then weaken in place through Sat.

Expect southeast winds gusting 40-65 mph along the West Coast
with this feature Fri and Fri night. Expect 4-6 inches of snow from
the Seward Peninsula southwest through Fri night along with
blizzard conditions at times. There will be less snow over the
Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island where the snow will likely
change to rain Fri. Expect periods of freezing rain as well.
Conditions should improve slightly on Sat as winds decrease a bit.

Strong high pressure over the Copper River Basin and southern
Yukon Territory will build north over the NE Interior and Beaufort
Sea Fri. This is now causing strong southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range passes that will continue into Sat. This is also
causing south winds through Brooks Range passes that will continue
through Sat. This will This will cause a moderately strong Tanana
Valley Jet to develop Fri and continue through the weekend, and
can expect NE winds to 20 kt over the Elliot Highway to develop
Fri as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at h500 and show similar solutions through
3pm Fri. After that time the GFS has significantly deeper short
wave troughs over NE Russia and over the AK Peninsula/Bristol Bay
area than the NAM and ECMF. Additionally the H500 ridge over NE
Alaska is weaker on the GFS than the ECMF/NAM after 3pm Fri. Favor
using the GFS through 3pm Fri, then the ECMF solution from Fri
night into Sun. In the longer term it appears as though the ridge
aloft over Eastern Alaska will weaken slowly next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Coast Flood Advisory zone
213 through Sat, but should gradually improve Sat as SE winds
decrease and water levels drop.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ220-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 17