Gale Warning 170, NWS Fairbanks, AK

477 
FZAK51 PAFG 230038
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-231545-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front from Barter Island to Wainwright will persist 
through Sun. A 977 mb low in the central Bering Sea will move to 
250 nm west of Gambell as a 986 mb low by 3am Sat, and to just 
south of Wrangel Island as a 993 mb low by 3pm Sat. A low in the 
Gulf of Alaska will move to Nunivak Island as a 990 mb low by 3pm 
Sat, to near Savoonga as a 1002 mb low by 3pm Sun, then dissipate.


$$

PKZ225-231545-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas calm. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas calm.  

$$

PKZ230-231545-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-231545-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-231545-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-231545-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
338 PM AKST Fri Dec 22 2017

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKST Thu Dec 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...A strong long wave ridge extending from the Eastern
Pacific into Eastern Alaska, and long wave trough over the NW
Pacific and Bering Sea will persist through the weekend. The ridge
will weaken slowly next week as the trough progresses slowly
east. A series of strong short wave troughs will move from the
Gulf of Alaska northwest over the Bering Sea through the weekend.
Strong surface systems will accompany each short wave, and the
weather with each will be mentioned in the surface section below.

This pattern means that well above normal temperatures will
persist through the weekend over Northern Alaska, then drop slowly
next week but still remain above normal. It also means that the
Interior will be generally dry through the weekend.

Temperatures aloft will be above freezing over the Interior and
North Slope through the weekend, causing very strong inversions.
On the West Coast, temperatures will be above freezing closer to
the surface making for a mix of precipitation through the weekend.

Surface...
A 1006 mb low 150 nm north of Barrow will move to 300 nm north of
Demarcation Point as a 1023 mb low by 3am Fri, then dissipate. A
cold front trailing from this low to Umiat will move north of the
coast this evening. In the southeast quadrant of this low
including the eastern North Slope, southwest winds gusting to 40
mph will decrease this evening as the low moves north of the
coast. Blowing snow will decrease as well.

A 992 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move to near Wrangel
Island as a 1003 mb low by 3am Fri, then continue northwest. Gale
force SE winds and mixed rain and snow area occuring along the the
western Capes of West Coast east of this low and will spread
northwest tonight.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the Gulf of
Anadyr as a 973 mb low by 3pm Fri, and to just southwest of
Wrangel Island as a 992 mb low by 3pm Sat. An occluded front
stretching southeast from this low will move to Provideniya to the
southeast Bering by 3pm Fri, and then weaken in place through Sat.

Expect southeast winds gusting 40-65 mph along the West Coast
with this feature Fri and Fri night. Expect 4-6 inches of snow from
the Seward Peninsula southwest through Fri night along with
blizzard conditions at times. There will be less snow over the
Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island where the snow will likely
change to rain Fri. Expect periods of freezing rain as well.
Conditions should improve slightly on Sat as winds decrease a bit.

Strong high pressure over the Copper River Basin and southern
Yukon Territory will build north over the NE Interior and Beaufort
Sea Fri. This is now causing strong southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range passes that will continue into Sat. This is also
causing south winds through Brooks Range passes that will continue
through Sat. This will This will cause a moderately strong Tanana
Valley Jet to develop Fri and continue through the weekend, and
can expect NE winds to 20 kt over the Elliot Highway to develop
Fri as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at h500 and show similar solutions through
3pm Fri. After that time the GFS has significantly deeper short
wave troughs over NE Russia and over the AK Peninsula/Bristol Bay
area than the NAM and ECMF. Additionally the H500 ridge over NE
Alaska is weaker on the GFS than the ECMF/NAM after 3pm Fri. Favor
using the GFS through 3pm Fri, then the ECMF solution from Fri
night into Sun. In the longer term it appears as though the ridge
aloft over Eastern Alaska will weaken slowly next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Coast Flood Advisory zone
213 through Sat, but should gradually improve Sat as SE winds
decrease and water levels drop.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ220-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 17