Gale Warning 161, NWS Fairbanks, AK

200 
FZAK52 PAFG 152110
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-161515-
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 965 mb low will move to Nunivak Island this afternoon then move
SE into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Sun morning as a broad 
area of low pressure develops over mainland Alaska. A weak ridge 
will move to the SE Bering Sea by Sun Morning, and over the SW 
mainland Sun night. A weather front associated with a 945 mb low 
in the Western Bering Sea will move to the Eastern Bering Sea Mon
and over the West Coast Mon night.

$$

PKZ200-161515-
Norton Sound-
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Snow.
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-161515-
Dall Point to Wales-
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-161515-
Kotzebue Sound-
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-161515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
1210 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

553 
FZAK52 PAFG 161246
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-170300-
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure persists over mainland Alaska. A 973
mb low over Nunivak Island will move to Kodiak City by Sun 
morning, while a 997 mb low develops over Kotzebue Sound. A ridge
of high pressure over the Central Aleutians and Central Bering 
Sea will move E to lie from Unalaska to St Lawrence Island by Sun 
afternoon, and over the SW mainland and Bristol Bay by Mon 
morning. A 977 mb low will move to the Western Bering Sea Sun 
morning with a weather front moving to the Central Bering Sea and 
Central Aleutians by Sun night. The low will move E in the 
Northern Bering Sea and the front will move to the West Coast by 
Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ200-170300-
Norton Sound-
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-170300-
Dall Point to Wales-
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and freezing rain. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-170300-
Kotzebue Sound-
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-170300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
346 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

SDB Dec 17

380 
FZAK52 PAFG 162215
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-171515-
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 973 mb low over Nunivak Island will move to Kodiak City by Sun 
morning, while a 997 mb low develops over Kotzebue Sound. 
A 945 mb low will move to the Western Bering Sea Sun morning with
a weather front moving to the Central Bering Sea and Central 
Aleutians by Sun night. The low will move E in the Northern Bering
Sea and the front will move to the West Coast by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ200-171515-
Norton Sound-
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-171515-
Dall Point to Wales-
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing rain. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-171515-
Kotzebue Sound-
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 5 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-171515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
115 PM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. VSBY
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. VSBY 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Dec 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The persistent southerly flow pattern that has been over the
forecast over a week looks to finally break down this weekend. The
models are in good agreement through the weekend in terms of the
major synoptic scale features.

Aloft, at 500 mb, the southerly flow pattern continues over
northern Alaska, although the flow aloft weakened overnight. A
501 dam low that is currently moving to the east along the
Aleutian Chain will move into the Yukon Delta area by Saturday
morning. As the low move east the southerly flow aloft over the
Interior/Alaksa Range will intensify, particularly Friday evening
into early Saturday. By Sunday morning the low will move into the
Gulf of Alaska turning the flow aloft over northern Alaska more
westerly. The pattern aloft early next week looks to be more
progressive; however, the models sill differ in the exact details.

Central and Eastern Interior: A front associated with a low that
is currently in the northern Gulf of Alaska will move north and
west through the eastern Interior today into Friday. Models are
in good agreement of a cooling trend aloft. This means that any
precipitation will fall as snow. This system will bring 1 to 3
inches of snow as it moves through. For Fairbanks the best window
for snow will be from 9 PM this evening through 9 AM Friday
morning. As the upper level low moves into the Yukon Delta the
flow aloft over the Interior will strengthen. This, when combined
with the leeside trough strengthening north of the Alaska Range
will lead to strong southerly winds to develop in the Passes of
the Alaska Range late Friday morning. Current guidance suggests
that the winds will peak Friday evening before subsiding early
Saturday morning. Current thinking is that the wind speeds will
remain just below advisory criteria; however, it will be close and
future shifts will have to continue to monitor the situation.
Over the past week the models havn't had the best run-to-run
consistency in terms of the timing of the strong wind events in
the Alaska Range and I suspect that this event may have similar
issues. A front will move from south to north over the Interior
Saturday into Sunday bringing another round of snow; however, the
models currently differ timing and QPF with this system. The
models are also front moving eastward across the central Interior
Tuesday evening and into the Eastern Interior Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range. The pressure gradient across the
north slope will decrease this evening as a low just north of the
Bering Strait weakens and moves west. This will cause a decreasing
trend in the winds along the coast this evening. I cancelled the
Blizzard warnings that were out along the Arctic Coast due to
winds decreasing and visibilities improving. I opted a put out a
Winter Weather Advisory for zone 201 through midnight since some
blowing snow is expected reducing the visibility to a half mile
at times. Some falling snow is expected this evening although the
timing of this will correspond with a decrease in winds. Some
light snow is possible through Saturday evening along the coast.

West Coast and Western Interior: Widespread areas of fog expected
across much of the west coast and western Interior. This is
mainly due to cooler temperatures combined with ample moisture at
the surfaces as a result of melting associated with recent warm
conditons. A weather front associated with a low in the Bering Sea
will cause the winds to increase south of the Bering Strait
tomorrow. This front will also bring 1 to 2 inches of snow. Snow
with this front will move into the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon
Valley tomorrow afternoon and will spread north over the west
coast and western Interior (as far north as the Bering Strait)
through early Saturday morning. Snowfall is expected from a front
that will move through the western Interior Saturday afternoon
into Sunday, although the models differ on the exact details at
this moment. A weather front associated with a low in eastern
Russia will move through the Bering Sea on Monday and will reach
the west coast Monday evening. This front look to push eastward
across the forecast area through Wednesday morning. The models
seem to have the same general idea with this front but differer on
the timing, wind speeds and QPF amounts. This front will bring
strong southeasterly winds as it moves through the Bering Sea and

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A weather front that will
move through the Bering Sea on Monday and will reach the west
coast Monday evening will may bring some high surf to any coastal
areas that are ice free (mainly the south side of St Lawrence
Island). At this point neither the direction nor the duration of
the wind looks to be favorable for coastal flooding in areas that
are ice free.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

DEC 17