Brisk Wind Advisory 217, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run continuity looks pretty good. Good
initialization of the 15/00Z run against the 15/06Z surface
analysis. Guidance is similar through around 48 hours with this
set of solutions before there is any divergence. Will lean on the
NAM for precipitation again today, and back off just a bit from
what the previous database had in it.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over most of mainland Alaska has an
axis that lies from the Eastern Gulf of Alaska over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley, then west over Norton Sound this morning. There
is another axis that extends north over the AlCan Border. A weak
trough lies between that axis and will be squeezed out as the
ridge axis merge later this evening over the Eastern Interior and
Brooks Range as they rotate east into Canada and north of the
Arctic Coast. A 495 dam low 200 nm north of Adak will move
northeast over the Pribilofs this evening at 501 dam as a 498 dam
low develops over the Central Aleutians and moves to Nunivak
Island. The low will then move northeast into the Western Interior
Saturday afternoon, and the Upper Yukon Flats by Sunday morning.
A 532 dam high remains north of the New Siberian Island with
ridging extending southeast over the Eastern Arctic Coast. A ridge
will move over the Western Bering Sea Saturday morning, and move
over the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait by late Sunday
evening. At 850 hpa...The forecast area is below zero, while areas
north of the Brooks Range and most of the West Coast are -10C or
colder. Temperatures over the interior will continue to cool to
less than -10 by Sunday evening. Temperatures will start warming
on the West Coast Monday as a weather system moves to the Eastern
Bering Sea.

Surface...Pattern change going on as weak high pressure that was
over the Western Interior is being pushed out of the area by a
low pressure system that will move to Nunivak Island later today,
and then inland. Broad area of cyclonic flow will be over the
state by Saturday morning with several minor lows floating around.
High pressure remains over the Arctic as it extends southeast from
a 1037 mb high near 80N 160E to south of Banks Island and will
persist into next week. As the low moves to Nunivak Island a strong
pressure gradient will develop across the Alaska Range this
morning with gap winds developing and persisting into Saturday
morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Back to normal on the Arctic with
stratus, flurries, northeast to east winds 15 to 30 mph, some
local blowing snow, and cooling temperatures. High pressure over
the Arctic will persist, but the ridge axis eventually slides just
offshore Saturday night and winds will diminish to 10 to 20 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Low moving to Nunivak Island
will spread some snow to the Lower Yukon Delta this morning
spreading it north and east through the day. Slight chance of some
Freezing Rain, but only trace amounts if any. Snowfall amounts
will be heaviest in the Nulato hills, but only a few inches will
fall. Winds along the coast will primarily be northeast at 10 to
20 mph with light winds inland. Temperatures slightly warmer today
south of the Seward Peninsula, but still at or below freezing for
afternoon highs.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some light snow and flurries this
morning will gradually taper off as the decaying front moves to
the south slopes of the Brooks Range by this evening. Another
chance of snow Saturday afternoon and evening as decaying front
associated with the low moving to Nunivak Island moves inland. Gap
flow winds developing this morning with gusts to around 45 mph in
the Alaska Range through about midnight before diminishing.
Tanana Valley Jet kicking in as 1003 mb high sets up around Dawson
YT this morning and leeside trough develops, so gusts to around
40 this afternoon and through the evening around Delta Junction.
Temperatures will continue to cool over the next couple days.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low pressure system
will move to Siberia next week sending a weather front into the
area Tuesday and Wednesday that could produce 2 to 6 inches of
snow across the forecast area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB DEC 17