Brisk Wind Advisory 77, NWS Fairbanks, AK

651 
FZAK51 PAFG 160018
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-161500-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA WITH WEAK RIDGING 
BUILDING E ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
FRI.

$$

PKZ225-161500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-161500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-161500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-161500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-161500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
318 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

FEB 17

777 
FZAK51 PAFG 161255
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-170300-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA WITH WEAK RIDGING 
BUILDING E ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SAT.

$$

PKZ225-170300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-170300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-170300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-170300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-170300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
355 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

LTH/DJH FEB 17

704 
FZAK51 PAFG 162330
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-171215-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1022 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING BUILDING E 
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ225-171215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-171215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-171215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-171215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-171215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
230 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

FEB 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 AM AKST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good run to run continuity and they are handling the
major features well. They have failed on some of the details the
last couple runs, and with the complexity of all the moving parts,
expect they will not do well with some of the details again today.
They did initialize well against the 15/06Z surface analysis on
the major features, but as noted above, not so well on the
details. Midrange is in reasonable agreement, but they still
diverge quite a bit in the extended periods. Will lean a bit more
on the NAM and SREF than we did yesterday for the near term
forecast. Will be chasing the temperatures again today as we see
cooling trend that the models are a little rough in handling so
will need to do some manual forcing.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...488 dam low is moving over Bristol Bay this
morning and will move over King Salmon by Thursday morning, then
drifts north over the Nushagak Delta before being absorbed into a
500 dam low over Norton Sound Friday morning. Ridging lies from
Norton Sound to Dawson this morning and will move northeast to be
over the eastern Brooks Range and eastern arctic coast by Thursday
morning. The next shortwave will move to the gulf coast by this
afternoon and into the interior overnight, then to the Yukon River
Thursday morning with a 502 dam low that developed over McGrath
moving to lie over Allakaket Thursday morning. The low then
dissipates Thursday evening as the shortwave splits with a portion
merging with the trough over the west coast and the remainder
moving northeast over the Beaufort Sea. Ridging will build back
in behind the shortwave over the Alaska Range Thursday afternoon
and then cover the eastern half of the state on Friday as the
trough continues to develop over the west coast. The ridging will
slide north on Friday over the arctic coast as yest another
shortwave swings north around the 500 dam low over the Bering
strait. At 850 hpa...Some lingering temperatures around zero from
Fairbanks east this morning, but nothing like yesterday.
Temperatures will continue to cool as southwest to west flow
takes over and the -20 isotherm will move east to lie from Barrow
to Ruby to McGrath to Bethel by Saturday afternoon.

Surface...Cyclonic flow continue over the area around a 964 mb
low that is now in Bristol Bay. Troughing persists from the low
northeast across the state with areas of snow along the boundary.
A leeside trough remains in place, though a bit weaker than
yesterday, but expecting it to deepen again today and gap flow
winds will strengthen through the Alaska Range in the afternoon
with the strongest winds in the eastern Alaska Range. Another wave
will move north today and enhance the moisture flowing into the
trough this afternoon. Some northeast winds in the middle Koyukuk
Valley but will be diminishing today. 1024 mb ridge over Siberia
continues to push ridging over the Chukchi Sea and east over the
arctic coast and plains. Precipitation across the state will
taper off tonight east of tanana, inverted trough develops west of
Tanana with snow developing over most of the middle Yukon Valley,
upper Kobuk, western Brooks Range, and western arctic Friday
morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much going on west of point
Barrow, some stratus ceilings, and some gusty winds south of Point
Lay, otherwise pretty quiet. East of Point Barrow snow will
continue through Thursday with the heaviest accumulations of 3 to
5 inches east of the Dalton Highway in the Brooks Range. Expect 2
to 3 inches along the Dalton Highway Corridor. Locally blowing
snow will reduce visibility to one half mile. Winds generally 5 to
15 mph. Temperatures in the west will cool a bit, while
temperatures east of Point Barrow will be warming slowly. Locally
Wind chill to 45 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Ongoing Winter Storm Warning for
the Bering Strait will continue into Thursday morning. Winds
gusting to 65 mph at Brevig Mission with poor visibility at times
overnight and that will continue. Winds have picked up a bit on St
Lawrence Island with gusts to around 50 mph. Blowing snow will
reduce visibility at times to less than one half mile. The lower
Yukon Delta is still pretty windy so will continue the Winter
Weather Advisory there for gusts to 40 and near blizzard
conditions improving in the late afternoon. Snow developing along
the trough that lie across the state will increase this afternoon
and be heavy at times this evening with 4 to 6 inches possible in
the middle Yukon Valley so Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
for zones 215 and 216 until midnight. Temperatures cooling as
southwest to west flow brings some cooler air into the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...Well after yesterday mornings quick
little shot of freezing rain, the atmosphere has sufficiently
cooled to the point we do not expect a repeat with the next wave
that will be moving through the area today. Only looking for a few
flurries in the Fairbanks area, with light accumulations to the
north in the hills. There is a chance the snow may mix with rain
in the Fortymile Country this afternoon. The heaviest snow will be
in the middle Koyukuk Valley with 4 to 6 inches expected from
this afternoon through tonight so Winter Weather Advisory in
effect for zone 219. Snowfall along the Brooks Range will be in
the 1 to 3 inch range. Looking for the gap winds to redevelop in
the eastern Alaska Range, but not as strong as yesterday so Wind
Advisory for gusts to 55 mph in zone 226. The western Alaska Range
will be windy near passes as well, but expecting gusts to around
45 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225.

&&

SDB FEB 17