Wind Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

374 
WWAK73 PAFG 152316
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2017

AKZ226-160030-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170216T0900Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
216 PM AKST Wed Feb 15 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 PM AKST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Pattern aloft: The 14/12Z 500 dm pattern shows amplified pattern
over the region with strong ridging centered over the western
CONUS, with extends NNW all the way to the eastern Beaufort Sea. A
486 dm low was centered around 130 miles south of King Cove south
of the Aleutians. A 484 dm low was centered near the Pole with
troughing extending south into the Chukchi Sea. Further south and
west, high pressure ridging remained in eastern Siberia with a 497
dm low centered over the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Surface: The 14/18Z analysis shows 964 mb low just north of
Kodiak Island located near the Stevenson Entrance. An occluded
front stretched around this low southwest through the AK Peninsula
then curves northeast through McGrath, Fairbanks and Eagle. Light
to moderate snow was accompanying this feature along with
freezing rain being seen over the greater Fairbanks area this
morning. Broad east to west oriented surface ridging remained
over Siberia. A 990 mb area of low pressure was over the high
arctic near 85 N 161 E with troughing extending south through the
Beaufort Sea.

Models: The 14 12/18Z models remain in fair to good agreement
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Upper low south of King Cove will drift north to the AK Peninsula
to near New Stuyahok by Thursday evening. Two short waves will
move north and west around the eastern periphery of this low
through Thursday. This low will then merge with an upper low that
will cut itself off from troughing in Chukchi Sea and slide down
the west coast Thursday night into Friday. This will deepen and
expand to from larger troughing over western AK by early Saturday.
The ridge axis downstream will gradually shift eastward toward
the central CONUS, allowing falling heights and cooler more
seasonal temperatures to filter in for the remainder of the week.
At the surface, low pressure near Kodiak Island will move north to
the southern coast and gradually weaken through Thursday. Two
weather fronts spinning around this low will bring two separate
rounds of accumulating snow to much of the state through Thursday,
with the second frontal system expected to linger over central AK
though the remainder of the week.

North Slope: The first occluded front will continue to move north
northwest to stretch from about Demarcation Point to Russian
Mission by 12Z Wednesday. Around 3 to 7 inches of snow is
expected from Nuiqsut to Umiat and points east. Will have to watch
for barrier jet winds increasing around Kaktovik as pressure
gradient increases in response to lingering surface ridging
extending from Siberia, that runs through the arctic plain
combined with developing low pressure along the NW Canadian arctic
coast early Wednesday. Some winter weather headlines may have to
be issued here due to reduced visibilities in snow and blowing
snow and trends will be watched this evening. The second front
moves up around 24 hours later Wednesday night to bring another
round of snowfall with another 2 to 4 inches of accumulation,
again mainly from Nuiqsut to Umiat and points east. This second
front will linger around the western half of the state which will
bring some lingering flurries to the western Brooks Range and NW
arctic coast into Friday. Other than stronger winds near Kaktovik
late tonight into tomorrow, light winds are expected elsewhere.

West Coast and West Interior: First of two weather fronts will
move through the western Interior late this afternoon, and to the
west coast by this evening. The first round of accumulating snow
is ongoing now and will taper off during the day on Wednesday as
this feature weakens. In addition, a strong pressure gradient
remains over the west coast due to the strong low in the Gulf and
persistent high pressure over eastern Siberia. This gradient, and
resultant strong north to northeast winds, looks to remain strong
through Wednesday with a slight weakening trend expected
Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories are
posted for zones 212, 214, and 215 due to snow amounts this
afternoon and tonight of 3 to 7 inches and visibilities down to
one half mile or less in blowing snow. Lighter winds are expected
for zone 216 where a WWA was posted through tonight for snow
amounts of 3 to 6 inches. Very strong winds and severely reduced
visibilities remain in zone 207, specifically north of Cape
Krusenstern, and along the Bering Strait Coast with winds gusting
over 50 mph and visibilities dropping to one quarter mile at
times. Winter Weather Advisories and a Winter Storm Warning remain
for zones 207 and 213, respectively, for ongoing blowing snow.
Could envision these headlines being extended beyond tonight, but
will defer to later shifts to make that evaluation. The second
weather front will quickly move in behind the first one tomorrow
afternoon and tomorrow evening, which will bring several more
inches of snow mainly to the western Interior from tomorrow
afternoon into Thursday. One last concern is that as upper trough
and heights fall over NW Alaska tomorrow night, colder air
combined with ongoing strong winds will create wind chill concerns
for zones 207 to 210 as well as 217 Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Interior: The first of two weather fronts has moved into the
central Interior late this afternoon, with accumulating snow
ongoing in zones 218 to 220. WWA's are issued for these zones
through tonight due to snow amounts of 4 to 7 inches and blowing
snow over higher terrain, with winds expected to diminish this
evening. Elsewhere gap winds are ongoing through the Alaska Range
passes this afternoon, in response to a passing short wave trough
aloft and building lee side surface trough north of the AK Range.
Wind Advisory remains for zone 223 until midnight for winds
gusting to around 50 mph, with a Winter Storm Warning remaining
until midnight for zone 226 due to the combination of strong winds
gusting to 65 mph creating reduced visibility in blowing fresh
snow. Second frontal system will move north into the Interior late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with several more inches
of accumulation possible by the end of Thursday, heaviest again in
zones 218 to 220. Ongoing WWA's for zones 218 to 220 will likely
need to be extended tonight to account for this second wave. This
front will then stall out and weaken in a N to S orientation over
the central Interior by Friday, with some lingering light snow
showers or flurries remaining. Temperatures will be trending
cooler over the Interior with falling heights and increased
troughing building over the region.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

NS FEB 17