Brisk Wind Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

322 
FZAK52 PAFG 122225
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131500-
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WARM FRONT SOUTH AND WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY MORNING 
BEFORE DISSIPATING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SPREADS
NORTH.

$$

PKZ200-131500-
NORTON SOUND-
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY EARLY MORNING.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-131500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. BLOWING
SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE...N WINDS 40 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-131500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
125 PM AKST SUN FEB 12 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.  
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

FEB 17

944 
FZAK52 PAFG 131257
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140300-
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1024 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA WITH WEAK RIDGING 
BUILDING E ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND PERSISTING THROUGH THU.
A 962 MB LOW 200 NM SW OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL 
BAY TONIGHT AT 966 MB. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP 
OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND VICINITY TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 
MIDWEEK.

$$

PKZ200-140300-
NORTON SOUND-
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-140300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.WED...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-140300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
357 AM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

SDB FEB 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Sat Feb 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Cold temperatures in the Interior and stratus and fog along the
West Coast and North Slope will highlight the short-term forecast.
The 12Z/06 models remain in good agreement through the rest of
the weekend and into the upcoming week. 12Z/06 models continue to
advertise a major pattern shift to take place over the next 24 to
36 hours, as an upper level builds over eastern Alaska pushing the
upper level trough west and south.

Aloft...An upper level shortwave and its reflection at the surface
will move inland over far southeastern Interior tonight and then
eject northeast towards the Northwest Territories Sunday. The main
upper low, associated with the upper level trough over mainland
Alaska, currently centered over Barrow will slide south along the
West Coast through late Sunday, reaching Bristol Bay and the
central Aleutians by Monday morning. Meanwhile, an upper level
ridge will build over eastern Alaska from the Gulf of Alaska
late Sunday into Monday and persist into mid week. An upper level
trough will then reassert itself over mainland Alaska as the old
upper level low moves north over Southwest Alaska and merges with
an upper level trough digging southward Wednesday and Thursday.
H850 temperatures ranging 20C to 30C below will begin to moderate
some Sunday, warming significantly to between 10C below to 0C as
the ridge builds over eastern Alaska. H850 temperatures will then
cool as an upper level trough reasserts itself late this upcoming
week.

Surface...A 988 mb low over Barrow will will weaken in place
tonight. A front extending south from a 978 mb low over the North
Pole will move east across the Chukchi Sea Sunday night and
dissipate early Monday as it approaches the northwest Arctic
Coast. A 976 mb low near Icy Cape will move onshore and over the
far southeastern Interior early this evening then continue to move
northeast over the Yukon Territory and Northwest Territories
through Sunday. A broad low in the Northern Pacific will move
north towards Kodiak through early Monday and will aide in
tightening up the pressure gradient across Interior Alaska Monday.
As the aforementioned low moves slowly north into the southwest,
the area of strongest pressure gradient will shift north and over
the Brooks Range. A leeside trough will develop north of the
Alaska Range Monday and will persist into mid week. Surface high
pressure over Eastern Siberia will persist through the forecast
period.

North Slope...Upper level low over the northwest Arctic Coast will
continue to bring some snow showers, flurries, and areas fog and
stratus to the Arctic Coast west of Deadhorse. Visibility restrictions
due to blowing snow has not been much of a problem as winds have
remained below 15 mph. May see another round of flurries or snow
showers Monday along the western Arctic Coast Monday as a front
approaches. Colder temperatures combined with breezy conditions
in eastern Brooks Range passes have resulted in wind chill values
colder than 40 below. Issued a wind chill advisory through early
Sunday morning with the expectation that winds will gradually
dissipate overnight, allowing wind chill values to warm.

Western Interior and West Coast...Stratus and areas of fog with
some flurries or snow showers will continue as the upper low moves
south tonight. Temperatures over the Western Interior valleys will
be dependent on cloud cover. Those valleys that remain clear will
see another night of temperatures in the 30 to 40 below or colder,
while cloud covered valleys will remain warmer with temperatures
bottoming out between 20 to 30 below. The next chance of snow will
come Monday as an trough/front rotates northwest over the
southwest.

Eastern and Central Interior...Patchy stratus and fog have
reported in some valley locations. Expect some fog to redevelop
overnight. The key uncertainty in the forecast will be the
temperatures. Interior valley locations that see clear skies will
see temperatures plummet to 30 to 40 below again tonight, with
slightly warmer temperatures 20 to 30 below in valley locations
that are cloud covered. The low near Icy Cape will bring another
round of light snow to the far southeastern Interior and will
bring another inch or so of snow tonight. As the upper level ridge
builds overhead with higher heights and warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday, will bring the potential for freezing
rain to parts of the eastern Interior (including Fairbanks). At
this time, it looks like a chinook pattern will develop from
Tuesday onwards, shadowing out the majority of the precipitation
over the southern Interior where the atmosphere profile indicates
the best potential for freezing rain. Several rounds of snow
expected for the northern Interior as multiple fronts/shortwaves
move north over the Alaska Range through mid week. Will have to
watch and assess the potential for freezing rain in future model
runs. Gap winds will develop through Alaska Range passes Sunday,
which will persist periodically through mid week. Initially, cold
temperatures combined with increasing gap winds will result in
cold wind chill values, but this should be short lived and remain
near or above advisory criteria of 40 below.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206.
&&

LTH FEB 17