Brisk Wind Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 AM AKST Wed Feb 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread continues to be minimal both between model families and
from run to run in the short range and is very reasonable in the
mid range and extended range on the placement and strength of
large scale features but the models display some spread on the
small scale features in the this time frame as would be expected.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a sharp ridge in the eastern Bering Sea pushes
north and east along with 700 hpa, 850 hpa as well as a surface
reflection of the ridge into western Alaska as the ridge at all
levels closes off into a very strong blocking high pressure
system. The stacked high pressure system effectively shuts off
nearly all precipitation over northern Alaska Thursday and
continuing though the weekend and into early next week. Warm
temperatures aloft will strengthen already strong inversions over
the interior as clearing skies and calm winds strongly radiate
out heat in valley locations however hill locations will be likely
be much warmer through the weekend and into early next week. The
only exception to this patten will be the far eastern north slope
where strong winds will produce blizzard or near blizzard
conditions this afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning.
850 mb temperatures over the interior will rise from around 10
below today to near zero Friday afternoon. The warm and dry
conditions are expected to continue into Monday as a sharp short
wave moving south out of the high arctic moves south and west
pushing the stacked high pressure system south and west over
Bristol Bay. 850 temperatures over Fairbanks will fall back to
around 10 below Monday and will dive into the 20s below by the
middle of next week as a cold airmass moves south and west out of
the high Canadian arctic.

On the surface pockets of low stratus and flurries are moving
east across the north slope behind a weak cold front currently
stretching from near Bartar Island to Umiat. Black stratus is
visible on satellite imagery over the west coast and western
interior with several locations reporting fog which has
occasionally been dense fog. Down valley winds continue at Eagle
with gusts to around 30 mph. The gradient continues to increase
along the eastern north slope with blizzard or near blizzard
conditions expected to develop there later this morning and will
continue through Thursday morning. Expect inversions over the
interior to remain strong with warming aloft in the hills and
mostly clear and calm conditions in the valley locations contributing
to strong radiational cooling.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC FEB 17