Brisk Wind Advisory 52, NWS Fairbanks, AK

071 
FZAK52 PAFG 012227
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021500-
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1044 MB HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1053 MB 
AND RIDGING WILL BUILD W OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA, BERING STRAIT, AND 
EASTERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-021500-
NORTON SOUND-
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-021500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. FREEZING FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-021500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-021500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
127 PM AKST WED FEB 1 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

SDB FEB 17

447 
FZAK52 PAFG 021134
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030015-
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1046 MB HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 1053 MB 
AND RIDGING WILL BUILD W OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA, BERING STRAIT, AND 
EASTERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ200-030015-
NORTON SOUND-
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-030015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-030015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-030015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
234 AM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC FEB 17

253 
FZAK52 PAFG 022254
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND-WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031500-
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1054 MB HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL REMAIN OVER THE CHUKCHI
SEA, BERING STRAIT, AND EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SAT. 

$$

PKZ200-031500-
NORTON SOUND-
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-031500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-031500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
154 PM AKST THU FEB 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

LTH/RM FEB 17

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 AM AKST Wed Feb 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread continues to be minimal both between model families and
from run to run in the short range and is very reasonable in the
mid range and extended range on the placement and strength of
large scale features but the models display some spread on the
small scale features in the this time frame as would be expected.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a sharp ridge in the eastern Bering Sea pushes
north and east along with 700 hpa, 850 hpa as well as a surface
reflection of the ridge into western Alaska as the ridge at all
levels closes off into a very strong blocking high pressure
system. The stacked high pressure system effectively shuts off
nearly all precipitation over northern Alaska Thursday and
continuing though the weekend and into early next week. Warm
temperatures aloft will strengthen already strong inversions over
the interior as clearing skies and calm winds strongly radiate
out heat in valley locations however hill locations will be likely
be much warmer through the weekend and into early next week. The
only exception to this patten will be the far eastern north slope
where strong winds will produce blizzard or near blizzard
conditions this afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning.
850 mb temperatures over the interior will rise from around 10
below today to near zero Friday afternoon. The warm and dry
conditions are expected to continue into Monday as a sharp short
wave moving south out of the high arctic moves south and west
pushing the stacked high pressure system south and west over
Bristol Bay. 850 temperatures over Fairbanks will fall back to
around 10 below Monday and will dive into the 20s below by the
middle of next week as a cold airmass moves south and west out of
the high Canadian arctic.

On the surface pockets of low stratus and flurries are moving
east across the north slope behind a weak cold front currently
stretching from near Bartar Island to Umiat. Black stratus is
visible on satellite imagery over the west coast and western
interior with several locations reporting fog which has
occasionally been dense fog. Down valley winds continue at Eagle
with gusts to around 30 mph. The gradient continues to increase
along the eastern north slope with blizzard or near blizzard
conditions expected to develop there later this morning and will
continue through Thursday morning. Expect inversions over the
interior to remain strong with warming aloft in the hills and
mostly clear and calm conditions in the valley locations contributing
to strong radiational cooling.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC FEB 17