Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1252 PM AKST Mon Jan 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good agreement and run to run continuity in the short
term. Midrange and extended periods have a reasonable handle on
the ridging, but are lacking in agreement on the shortwaves
moving around it. Models initialized well against the 30/18Z
surface analysis.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...487 dam low over Siberia will move north
into the Russian arctic Tuesday evening. A 506 dam low over St
Lawrence Island will move north along the dateline into the arctic
and dissipate. Several shortwaves will move north over the west
coast tonight. The long wave trough will move east over the
Western Interior by Tuesday morning, then splits with the northern
half moving east across our forecast area, and the southern half
moving southeast across Cook Inlet with a 541 dam low developing
over the northern Gulf of Alaska. The northern half will lie from
Point Lay to Anvik tonight, from Wainwright to Ruby by Tuesday
afternoon, and will move over the Yukon Territory by Wednesday
morning. Ridging over the eastern interior with 534 dam heights
reaching north to the Beaufort Sea will move east tonight over the
yukon Territory 170W as it weakens. A ridge over the north
Pacific will build north over the central Bering Sea tonight and
move east with the axis lying from the northern Kamchatka
Peninsula to Nikolski by Tuesday afternoon. The ridge will
continue to build north with 540 dam height pushing over the
Chukchi Sea by Wednesday morning and the axis moving to lie from
just west of Wrangel Island south over St Lawrence Island to Cold
Bay. A 564 dam closed high will cutoff from the ridge and move
north over the lower Yukon Delta late Wednesday, and will cover
most of mainland Alaska by Thursday afternoon as the center moves
over Norton Sound at 572 dam. The ridge will persist into the
weekend as it weakens to 566 dam. At 850 hpa...A slight warming
trend into Wednesday will have temperatures rising 3 to 6 degrees
celsius, then a cooling trend into Thursday will have them fall 3
to 6 degrees celsius. As the closed high sets up over the west
coast a surge of warm air will move north late in the week pushing
temperatures west of Fairbanks up to around zero celsius.

Surface...Ridging over the eastern half of the mainland will
persist as 1041 mb high has developed over the Southeast mainland
and Yukon Territory, and a 1032 mb high has developed over the
upper Yukon Flats. A 984 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move
north over the Chukotsk Peninsula tonight with a second low center
developing over the Chukchi Sea this evening and moving to
Wrangel Island Tuesday morning at 995 mb as it absorbs the first
low. Leeside troughing developing over the arctic coast today,
then moves offshore Wednesday as the low near Wrangel Island moves
north into the arctic. A decaying front associated with the lows
out west will move inland this evening and slowly move east as it
weakens. By Tuesday morning the front will lie from Point Hope to
Kaltag to Kodiak Island, moving to lie from Point Lay to Bettles
to Kantishna late Tuesday, and Deadhorse to Central to Denali
Wednesday morning as it continues to fall apart. As the ridge
builds and the front moves east a relatively strong pressure
gradient will develop over the eastern arctic coast Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A little bit of everything going
on. Low ceilings, strong gusty winds, blowing snow, snow, just
another day in the arctic. Most of the poor conditions will be
west of Point Barrow tonight, with improved conditions Tuesday. On
Wednesday a weather front will move across the arctic and clip the
eastern arctic coast bringing potential blizzard conditions to
Kuparuk and areas east. Will issue a Blizzard Watch for the area
for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Hazards on the northwest
coast will remain in place through tonight as they can expect 2
to 4 inches of snow along with gusty winds and blowing snow. Also
strong winds and blowing snow will continue in the Brooks Range
through Tuesday. Winds gusting to 40 mph south of Point Lay with
10 to 20 mph winds for the remainder of the area. Temperatures a
few degrees warmer through Tuesday, then a sharp downward trend
for the remainder of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of wintery weather going
on as the temperatures have risen a bit and a layer of warm air
has moved into the lower Yukon Delta. A chance of some light
freezing rain in the lower Yukon Delta this evening, then
everything will turn back to snow by late evening. Continue the
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories overnight,
but most areas will start seeing some clearing from the southwest
by noon Tuesday. Heaviest snowfall is expected in the Bendeleben
Mountains on the Seward Peninsula, along the south slopes of the
western Brooks Range, and in the Nulato Hills. Storm total
snowfall amounts across the area will range from less than an inch
to near a foot of new snow by the time things wind up tomorrow.
Winds in the Bering Strait are gusting to around 55 mph this
afternoon and will taper down through the evening. Expect winds
near Point Hope to kick up a few notches this evening as the low
moves north through the Chukchi Sea. Temperatures will start
cooling as the precipitation moves out and clouds clear.

Central and Eastern Interior...Other than a chance of snow on
Wednesday as the decaying weather front move east through the
area, conditions will generally be nice with just some clouds
moving across the area. Temperatures slightly warmer the next
couple days, then cooling for the end of the week. Gusty winds
near the Alaska Range passes through Tuesday morning with gusts to
60 mph. Also some gusty winds over interior summits north of the
Yukon River to 40 mph with some blowing snow. The remainder of
the area will have variable, mainly northeast to southeast, winds
to 10 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Watch for AKZ204.

Wind Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ209-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225.

&&

SDB JAN 17