Brisk Wind Advisory 163, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 AM AKDT Sun May 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread both between model families and from run to run remains
very reasonable in the short and mid range. Model spread increases
to expected levels in the long range.

Aloft, at 500 HPA a weak ridge with axis from near Kotzebue to
Yakutat will continue to drift slowly north and east today and
tonight. Mostly sunny skies are expected in the central and
eastern interior with warm air aloft stabilizing the atmosphere. A
weak upper level low near Wrangle Island will drag a weak
shortwave north and east along the northwest coast of Alaska
today. The upper level ridge over the eastern interior retreats
south and east into the Yukon and northern British Columbia early
next week. An upper level low 250 nm southwest of Kodiak Island
will continue to swing weak shortwaves north and west into the
interior next week.

On the surface a 1036 mb high pressure system over the high
Canadian Arctic will continue to produce east to northeast winds
over the north slope. Open leads in the ice pack will continue to
provide moisture and aid in the production of low ceilings, fog
and flurries over much of the north slope today and into Monday.

A thermal trough over the Tanana Valley will strengthen again
today and will help produce gusty winds in and near the north
slopes of the Alaska Range, especially near passes where sustained
gap winds of near 30 mph are expected. Winds will likely gust
over 40 mph. Very low RH values are expected this afternoon and
evening with much of the southern interior dropping below 20
percent and driest areas dropping to around 10 percent.
Temperature and wind criteria are not expected to be met over the
most of the southern interior, however areas along and near the
eastern Alaska Range without Red Flag temperature criteria will
experience Red Flag Conditions with both wind and RH values
meeting criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and windy and very dry conditions were experienced yesterday
and are expected again today especially in the middle and upper
Tanana Valley and along the north slopes of the Alaska Range. A
Red Flag Warning continues for along the Richardson Highway
between Donnelly Dome and Jarvis Creek for RH values dropping to
around 10 percent this afternoon and evening. Sustained south
winds of around 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph are expected
again this afternoon and evening as the thermal trough over the
Tanana Valley strengthens. Dry and breezy conditions are also
expected over much of the southern interior however temperature
and wind criteria are not expected to be met. Min RH values are
however expected to drop below 15 percent in many locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ridging aloft combined with high freezing levels continue to
promote snowmelt in the Yukon Uplands and higher terrain in the
Fortymile Country as well as the Alaska Range. Increased run off
as snowpack continues to melt out will increase levels on small
streams and small stem rivers. The breakup front continues to
proceed slowly down rivers as as result of low river levels and
will likely through Circle today or Monday. The ice for the most
part is rotten and is tending to mush out along breakup front
along the Yukon however an ice jam has formed 23 miles up river
from Eagle causing river levels to rise 8 feet as of Saturday
afternoon. Continue to keep close tabs on breakup front and ice
flows.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

CCC MAY 17