Storm Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

770 
FZAK52 PAFC 090024
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091345-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO AT 54N 168W REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 984 MB LOW MOVES
TO 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA FRI AFTERNOON AT 977 MB.

$$

PKZ150-091345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091345-
BRISTOL BAY-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-091345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091345-
UNALASKA BAY-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091345-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-091345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
324 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Tue Feb 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level ridge over most of southern Alaska
extending across the Alaska Peninsula into the central Aleutians.
There is a closed cut-off low centered just to northwest of
Nunivak island. This is a fairly dry low and only minimal
precipitation is associated with it at this time. The rather
strong Polar Jet is pushing into northern Alaska and beginning to
drop southward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Thursday afternoon). The Nam
begins to diverge from the other models Thursday morning with the
low moving from Bristol Bay into the Gulf. The Nam opens it up and
has it further north than the other solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...LIFR conditions are expected to increase again this
evening. Conditions should improve later tonight as a mid-level
deck of clouds (bases around 3500-4000 feet) moves in. This deck
of clouds will help to break up the surface based inversion a bit.
Confidence in the exact timing of this is low, as well as with how
quickly conditions will improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Another night of fog around the northern Inlet, followed by
increasing chances for snow late tomorrow. Fog is still hanging
out around Turnagain/Knik Arm, though it has eroded a bit more
than yesterday. There should be some fog pulsating around the area
tonight, however, conditions are not as conducive as the previous
two nights. While an upper ridge will be overhead, heights will be
falling, suggesting cooling in the low/mid levels. Hence, the
inversion in the low-levels should be weakening. The other aspect
going against fog is the mid-level cloud deck building over the
Kenai Peninsula. As the deck advects/builds northward cross-
barrier flow increases over the Alaska/Aleutian range which will
try and dry the low-levels out at the same time. The question for
late tonight/tomorrow will be how long does the mid-level deck
hang out.

Wednesday evening a weak disturbance in the flow will bring a
low-level trough into the Cook Inlet region. Weak isentropic lift
in the southerly flow ahead of the trough should bring some
flurries to the Kenai through the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley. Things quickly dry out on Thursday in cold advection.
Overall expect below normal temperatures and generally light
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low over the northeastern Bering is bringing onshore flow to
southwest Alaska with low stratus and light snow. The low will
track southeast through the eastern Bering and then across the
Alaska Peninsula Wednesday night. As the low passes, flow across
southwest Alaska will shift to a dry offshore flow that will bring
colder air to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The main feature to impact the Bering and Aleutians is a front
that is approaching the Western Aleutians from the North Pacific.
It will make it to the islands tonight and then begin to stall in
the southern Bering stretching across the Central Aleutians as
the parent low weakens. This system will bring stronger winds as
it initially pushes through that will weaken into Thursday. It
will also have a strong push of warm air that will keep most of
the precipitation from this system falling as rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A cold longwave trough over interior Alaska will begin to drop
down over Southern Alaska Friday morning, bringing colder
temperatures to much of the region through Sunday. As this colder
airmass settles in over the area Friday, a surface low over the
Gulf of Alaska begins to strengthen and move over Prince William
Sound. There is good agreement in the models and higher confidence
in precipitation developing along the Northern Gulf coast areas
and over parts of the Copper River Basin Friday and into Saturday.
However, models are still struggling with the positioning of the
upper level low and various surface features, which has lead to
lower confidence in snow potential over the Anchorage, Mat-Su
Valleys, and Western Kenai areas. One can say with high confidence
that several areas of low pressure will move into the Gulf of
Alaska this weekend through the middle of next week, but it's
nearly impossible to even imagine where these features may track
given the poor agreement amongst the models.

Out west, a pattern change will also be underway over the Bering
Sea and northern Pacific, as the receding high pressure over the
areas gets pushes westward by the above mentioned cold longwave
trough tracking through the mainland. This will make way for the
upper level trough to set up over the Bering Sea and Northern
Pacific by early next week, with multiple systems at the surface
mainly staying along or south of the Aleutian chain through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 177 178 Heavy Freezing Spray 180 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PEPE