Gale Warning 135, NWS Anchorage, AK

525 
FZAK52 PAFC 081244
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090200-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A
FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN BERING EARLY THU MORNING THEN DIMINISHES EARLY FRI
MORNING. A 978 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 360 NM SOUTH OF ATKA
EARLY FRI MORNING PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ150-090200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090200-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ165-090200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090200-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090200-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 23
FT...EXCEPT 16 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 27
FT...EXCEPT 22 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-090200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-090200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Tue Feb 7 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The weather pattern remains stagnant with the polar and
subtropical jet streams oriented in a split flow pattern with the
ridge over the Chukchi Sea. The closed low, that cut through the
mid levels on Monday, is currently spinning over the eastern
Bering. To the west, a closed North Pacific low is gaining
northward momentum and pushing the next front into Shemya. At the
surface, relatively benign conditions continue across much of the
southern mainland with the exception of dense fog across the northern
Cook Inlet expanding inland during the early morning hours.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in excellent agreement through mid week as the slowly
evolving pattern shifts into motion. Only minor changes were
made overnight using the NAM for Southcentral and the Gulf with a
combination of both the GFS and NAM for the Southwest and Bering.
The biggest challenge in the short range forecast through
Wednesday is defining snow development along the Bering low that
sets into southerly motion later today. This system lacks in a
dynamic set up for producing snow without a front or low at the
surface. On Wednesday, all models are showing better organization
of a surface feature as the system begins to track east with a
deepening surface trough just north of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light surface flow continues through the next TAF package keeping
reduced visibilities due to dense fog from the Inlet. A period of
improvement is expected during the afternoon due to diurnal
mixing, however diminishing conditions are expected to quickly
ensue after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The extent of dense fog across northern Cook Inlet and the
Anchorage Bowl will diminish through Wednesday as the upper ridge
retrogrades westward and temperature inversions weaken. That said,
there will likely still be patchy fog lingering across northern
Cook inlet with some locally dense conditions near west Anchorage
and along Knik arm into Wednesday morning. An upper trough dropping
south and surface low moving into the northern Gulf on
Wednesday/Wednesday night will bring increased chances of light
snow to Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A closed upper level low moving into the Eastern Bering will
increase cloud cover and a chance of flurries/light snow to much
of the region today. With very limited deep layer moisture
available, significant accumulations are not expected as flurries
spread throughout the area by Wednesday. Beginning late Wednesday,
the upper level low will strengthen as it dives to the southeast
towards the AK pen, tapping into increased moisture as it moves
over the Bering Sea. This will bring much more widespread and
heavier snow to the Bering coast of the AK pen from King Salmon
southward, though accumulations should remain under a few inches.
The system will then move into the Gulf by Thursday morning,
bringing clearing skies and colder temperatures back to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
After the remnants of a gale force front weaken over the Western
Bering today, a slightly stronger storm force front will quickly
replace it. This system will bring strong winds and rain to the
Western Aleutians beginning Wednesday morning. The front will
then spread into the Central Aleutians as it weakens to gale force
on Thursday. To the east, shortwave ridging stretching from the
Pribilof Islands into the Eastern Aleutians will prevent most of
the impacts from this front from moving into the area, with
continued benign weather outside of a chance of rain showers.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Snow shower activity will be on the rise on Wednesday ahead of a
cut off upper level low meandering through Southwest Alaska, and
into Southcentral Alaska by Thursday morning. On Wednesday
afternoon, this cut off low will merge with a trough dropping out
of the arctic (actually has some polar origin) and help bring down
some colder air to much of the state. The trough will bring quite
a punch of upper level lift while cold air advection behind the
trough looks quite promising to bring snowfall to portions of
Southcentral Alaska on Thursday. Following this first push of cold
air on Wednesday and Thursday, a reinforcing shot of cold air will
drop out of the arctic once again on Friday to help bring back
some well below normal temperatures to much of the state.

At the same time, a pretty significant pattern change will start
to take place over the Bering Sea and northern Pacific Ocean. A
series of shortwaves will propagate eastward along the upper
level trough situated between Kamchatka and Attu on Wednesday
which will in turn amplify the upper level pattern. This will help
set up a moisture tap well into the subtropics that will start
pushing toward the gulf coast of Alaska late Saturday into Sunday.
The forecast gets very tricky this weekend as the upper level
become quite a mess with multiple shortwaves embedded in the
amplified flow which impacts the location and propagation of
surface features. One can say with high confidence that several
areas of low pressures will move into the Gulf of Alaska this
weekend through early next week, but it's nearly impossible to
even imagine where these features may track.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE..STORMS 178.
        GALES 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PEPE