Storm Warning 120, NWS Anchorage, AK

603 
FZAK52 PAFC 292301
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301145-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 mb low 200 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor moves to 65 nm 
north of Cape Newenham at 1002 mb Mon afternoon and then moves 
inland and dissipates by Tue afternoon. A front enters the western
Bering Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-301145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt, Seas 20 ft building to 28 ft after 
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 
kt after midnight, Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301145-
Bristol Bay-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt
becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 45 kt from Unalaska E. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301145-
Unalaska Bay-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301145-
Adak to Kiska-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301145-
Kiska to Attu-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 27 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-301145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. Seas 
12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A longwave trough extends down from northeast Russia through the
Central Aleutians and into the North Pacific. Two embedded waves
are moving through the trough with the first on the eastern side
moving across the Alaska Peninsula towards Southcentral Alaska.
The second wave is supporting a low in the base of the trough
south of the Central Aleutians. This low is trending north towards
the southern Bering. Both of these waves are bringing more warm
air to the southern mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through the short term. However,
they do struggle on Monday night as the low troughs out over the
southern mainland and how much rain will linger over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Surface flow will switch to northerly as a front
approaches the area from the south this morning. During this time
Turnagain Arm winds will also increase and move over the airport
out of a southeast direction bringing wind shear to the airport.
With northerly winds expected to continue through the TAF period,
wind shear should also continue through the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front and associated shortwave trough is quickly moving
toward the Gulf Coast with rain overspreading Kodiak Island. Radar
echoes are already showing up on the Kenai radar and this activity
should quickly move into Southcentral this morning. Rain is
expected for inland locales, but snow levels will drop as low as
2000 feet along the Chugach mountains. One area where low
elevation snow is likely is across the northern Susitna Valley
near the Alaska Range where 2-4 inches of snow is possible. This
system will quickly move east before a stronger warm front moves
into the region. This system will bring in more warm air and
should change any snow over the northern Susitna Valley back to
rain. The bulk of the precipitation will move east Monday morning,
but light rain will continue to be a threat through Monday night
as the upper low passes over.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A wet and unsettled pattern is on tap for the southwest Mainland
as impulses of energy embedded in southwest flow move onshore. A
deep fetch of moisture spans from the Y-K Delta and south of the
AKPEN. A new low will close in on southwest Alaska bringing more
difluent southwest flow and more dynamics to the region. Monday
the jet core will track directly over Bristol Bay and careen into
southwest Alaska with strong winds mixing down to the surface.
More warm air advection will accompany the next low and the
predominate p-type will be rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 973 mb low south of Adak will continue to track north-northeast
bringing strong winds to the Aleutians. The surface low will move
east of the Pribilof Islands early Monday. The pressure gradient
with this storm is fairly concentric, anticipate gusty winds in
the warm sector and the back side of the low. This will bring
stratiform precipitation to the area, as well as gale and storm
force winds. The ensembles ping into some interesting anomalies
with the wind field relative to climatological norms. But with the
low slowly filling as it migrates north-northeastward, expect to
stay below the NPW threshold. In a nutshell, this storm will bring
wet and windy conditions to much of the Aleutian chain and Bering
Sea as it progresses northward the next two days.

Further west, Post Tropical Cyclone Saola rears its head west of
the Aleutians late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

The quick succession of waves of precipitation continues into
Tuesday morning as the low that moves into Southwest Alaska on
Monday continues to impact the area. There is wide model
disagreement on where the low goes, but the most consistent
solution takes the upper low south across the Alaska Peninsula
into the North Pacific. Regardless, its presence near southern
Alaska should mean scattered showers for much of Southcentral
early in the day, then clearing out as strong ridging associated
with an anomalously strong upper level high moves over Southwest
Alaska by Wednesday morning. This will begin a prolonged period of
dry weather for nearly all of Southern Alaska.

The upper level high and associated warm air will keep winter on
hiatus through at least Thursday. The caveat with all the warm
air around is that it will effectively cap any low level moisture
in place which will make for widespread fog concerns, particularly
Thursday morning when temperatures aloft are at their warmest.
Beyond that, the upper level ridging looks to flatten out,
allowing a somewhat more seasonable air mass to return to
Southcentral, especially towards the Copper River Basin.
Meanwhile, the ridge and very warm air associated with it will
persist through Saturday and beyond over Southwest Alaska and the
eastern Bering. Thus, a continuation of warm daytime highs with
morning fog concerns is expected.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 150 160 165 170 171 173 174 177
				 178 180 181 185 411 413 414.
		 Storms...155 172 175 176 179 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...JW