Gale Warning 488, NWS Anchorage, AK

241 
FZAK62 PAFC 301129
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310145-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 mb low at 56N 167W moves to 59N 164W at 997 mb this 
afternoon and then moves inland and dissipates by Tue afternoon. 
A front enters the western Bering Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 6 to 11 ft in
the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

368 
FZAK62 PAFC 302229
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-311330-
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1005 mb low at 60N 162W moves inland this afternoon. The 
associated front pushes across the Northern Gulf of Alaska through 
Wed afternoon. A 986 mb Kamchatka low forms Tue afternoon then moves
across the Russian Far East Wed afternoon. Its associated front 
slides across the Western Aleutians for Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-311330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-311330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 6 to 
11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 6 to 11 ft in
the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-311330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8
to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-311330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
229 PM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

129 
FZAK62 PAFC 311141
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010130-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front moves across the western Aleutians today to the central 
Aleutians where it dissipates Wed. A ridge of high pressure builds in
the Bering Sea through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-010130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 6 to 11 ft in
the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

515 
FZAK62 PAFC 312321
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011245-
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front South of the Alaska Peninsula moves into the North Pacific
by Wed morning. A front over the Western Aleutians dissipates over
the Northwest Bering for Thu morning. High pressure spreads across
the Bering through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKDT Tue Oct 31 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

965 
FZAK62 PAFC 011146
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020145-
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the Western Aleutians dissipates over the Northwest 
Bering Thu morning. High pressure spreads across the Bering 
through Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 AM AKDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
800 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A longwave trough extends down from northeast Russia through the
Central Aleutians and into the North Pacific. Two embedded waves
are moving through the trough with the first on the eastern side
moving across the Alaska Peninsula towards Southcentral Alaska.
The second wave is supporting a low in the base of the trough
south of the Central Aleutians. This low is trending north towards
the southern Bering. Both of these waves are bringing more warm
air to the southern mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through the short term. However,
they do struggle on Monday night as the low troughs out over the
southern mainland and how much rain will linger over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Surface flow will switch to northerly as a front
approaches the area from the south this morning. During this time
Turnagain Arm winds will also increase and move over the airport
out of a southeast direction bringing wind shear to the airport.
With northerly winds expected to continue through the TAF period,
wind shear should also continue through the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front and associated shortwave trough is quickly moving
toward the Gulf Coast with rain overspreading Kodiak Island. Radar
echoes are already showing up on the Kenai radar and this activity
should quickly move into Southcentral this morning. Rain is
expected for inland locales, but snow levels will drop as low as
2000 feet along the Chugach mountains. One area where low
elevation snow is likely is across the northern Susitna Valley
near the Alaska Range where 2-4 inches of snow is possible. This
system will quickly move east before a stronger warm front moves
into the region. This system will bring in more warm air and
should change any snow over the northern Susitna Valley back to
rain. The bulk of the precipitation will move east Monday morning,
but light rain will continue to be a threat through Monday night
as the upper low passes over.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A wet and unsettled pattern is on tap for the southwest Mainland
as impulses of energy embedded in southwest flow move onshore. A
deep fetch of moisture spans from the Y-K Delta and south of the
AKPEN. A new low will close in on southwest Alaska bringing more
diffluent southwest flow and more dynamics to the region. Monday the
jet core will track directly over Bristol Bay and careen into
southwest Alaska with strong winds mixing down to the surface.
More warm air advection will accompany the next low and the
predominate p-type will be rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 973 mb low south of Adak will continue to track north-northeast
bringing strong winds to the Aleutians. The surface low will move
east of the Pribilof Islands early Monday. The pressure gradient
with this storm is fairly concentric, anticipate gusty winds in
the warm sector and the back side of the low. This will bring
stratiform precipitation to the area, as well as gale and storm
force winds. The ensembles ping into some interesting anomalies
with the wind field relative to climatological norms. But with the
low slowly filling as it migrates north-northeastward, expect to
stay below the NPW threshold. In a nutshell, this storm will bring
wet and windy conditions to much of the Aleutian chain and Bering
Sea as it progresses northward the next two days.

Further west, Post Tropical Cyclone Saola rears its head west of
the Aleutians late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

The quick succession of waves of precipitation continues into
Tuesday morning as the low that moves into Southwest Alaska on
Monday continues to impact the area. There is wide model
disagreement on where the low goes, but the most consistent
solution takes the upper low south across the Alaska Peninsula
into the North Pacific. Regardless, its presence near southern
Alaska should mean scattered showers for much of Southcentral
early in the day, then clearing out as strong ridging associated
with an anomalously strong upper level high moves over Southwest
Alaska by Wednesday morning. This will begin a prolonged period of
dry weather for nearly all of Southern Alaska.

The upper level high and associated warm air will keep winter on
hiatus through at least Thursday. The caveat with all the warm
air around is that it will effectively cap any low level moisture
in place which will make for widespread fog concerns, particularly
Thursday morning when temperatures aloft are at their warmest.
Beyond that, the upper level ridging looks to flatten out,
allowing a somewhat more seasonable air mass to return to
Southcentral, especially towards the Copper River Basin.
Meanwhile, the ridge and very warm air associated with it will
persist through Saturday and beyond over Southwest Alaska and the
eastern Bering. Thus, a continuation of warm daytime highs with
morning fog concerns is expected.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 150 160 165 170 171 173 174 177
				 178 180 181 185 411 413 414.
		 Storms...155 172 175 176 179 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...JW