Small Craft Advisory 987, NWS Anchorage, AK

788 
FZAK51 PAFC 251220
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260130-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1016 mb low 35 nm Southeast of Kodiak City follows a front 
across the Gulf and dissipates into a trough along the North Gulf 
and Southeastern Alaska coasts Tue morning. High pressure spreads 
over the Gulf through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-260130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Near the coast...E wind 20 kt diminishing 
to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260130-
Resurrection Bay-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260130-
Prince William Sound-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260130-
Port Valdez-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260130-
Valdez Narrows-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260130-
Valdez Arm-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260130-
Passage Canal-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260130-
Barren Islands East-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt 
becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260130-
Chiniak Bay-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260130-
Marmot Bay-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260130-
Shelikof Strait-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260130-
Kachemak Bay-
320 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

129 
FZAK51 PAFC 260018
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261315-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1028 mb low 75 nm south of Seward will move inland and 
dissipate tonight. High pressure will remain over the Gulf through
Wed morning. A front associated with a 992 mb North Pacific low 
will enter the southern Gulf by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261315-
Resurrection Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261315-
Prince William Sound-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 
ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261315-
Port Valdez-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind less than 10 kt increasing to 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261315-
Valdez Narrows-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261315-
Valdez Arm-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261315-
Passage Canal-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261315-
Barren Islands East-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt
becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except N 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261315-
Chiniak Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261315-
Marmot Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261315-
Shelikof Strait-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing
fog.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-261315-
Kachemak Bay-
318 PM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level flow over Alaska this morning is dominated by a
meridional jet stream with a long wave trough extending from the
Kamchatka Peninsula southward across the Bering Sea and into the
North Pacific Ocean. Further east, a narrow high amplitude ridge
is located along the ALCAN border and extends from the Arctic
Ocean south into southwest Canada. A weakening low pressure
system is located just south of Cold Bay and is bringing strong
winds and snowfall to portions of the Western AKPEN. An elongated
front associated with this low is seen draped across the Gulf of
Alaska and into SW Alaska while slowly moving NE. The front,
supported by strong southeasterly flow, is bringing a band of
heavy precipitation to the Southern and Eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Elsewhere in the state, infrared imagery shows very cold air
pooling in the Copper River Basin, with temperatures observed
below -30 degrees C.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the track of the
surface low currently south of the AKPEN and is now bringing the
low north across Kodiak and up through the Kenai Peninsula
tomorrow. Thus, confidence has increased that the associated
front will bring a band of moderate to heavy precipitation
further north along the Eastern Kenai coastline and the Prince
William Sound tomorrow and Monday. There is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding specific details of this system including
total snowfall accumulations along the coast and how much, if
any, snowfall spills over the mountains as the system pushes out
of the area on Christmas Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the Gulf will continue to lift slowly northward
today then dissipate as it moves onshore in the Prince William
Sound tonight. With low level easterly flow, the bulk of
precipitation will fall along the eastern Kenai Peninsula/Western
Prince William Sound coast. Downslope flow and very dry air will
keep most of the western Kenai Peninsula dry. Although surface
temperatures are above freezing across most of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, dewpoints are all below freezing, so expect
temperatures to cool as precipitation moves in today leading to
snow for most areas.

Back behind the front, a surface low will lift northward across
Kodiak and the western Gulf tonight before dissipating in the
vicinity of the southern Kenai. A trailing upper level short-wave
will continue northward to Southcentral Monday night. It looks
weak, but when combined with increased instability may produce a
few snow showers. Have used a broad-brush approach to the precip
forecast due to weak unfocused forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The persistent southeasterly winds and cloudcover that has
produced widespread above freezing temperatures will begin to
diminish this afternoon as the low currently just south of the AK
pen moves into the Gulf. An upper level trough moving overhead
this evening will allow for a chance of light snow to return to
Bristol Bay after the strong cross barrier flow/downsloping ends,
which should allow for an inch or so of accumulation late tonight-
early Monday as the trough quickly moves through. Behind this
trough a period of quiet weather is then expected to develop late
Monday-Tuesday as weak onshore flow and high pressure moves in
from the Bering. This should allow temperatures to slowly fall
back to near normal by Tuesday with the only forecast concerns
being for the potential for patchy fog/stratus development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The snow and blowing snow along the AK pen should slowly diminish
this morning as the trough and associated low south of the AK pen
move off to the east and weaken. Afterwards, much of the region
will move into a quieter and much less progressive pattern through
Tuesday as the broad trough that has been over the region for
over a week now is replaced by ridging moving in from the west.
Before this occurs, one last gale force low will move through the
Aleutians today, but impacts from it should be comparatively less
than many of the lows that have moved through recently. Ridging
will then move through the Western Aleutians on Monday, allowing
for winds throughout the region to diminish below gale force with
generally dry weather into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended forecast period Christmas evening, there
will be a weakening upper trough lifting northward along the Gulf
Coast and a weakening closed upper low over the central Aleutians.
These features are being met by an upper ridge building over the
eastern part of Alaska, as well as an amplifying ridge over the
western Bering/Aleutians. Rain and snow showers along the Gulf
Coast and northern parts of the southwest Mainland will taper off
slowly by Tuesday, as the trough moves inland and falls apart. By
that time, high latitude blocking in the vicinity of Eastern
Siberia and the Beaufort Sea will begin to exert a stronger
influence on the pattern, and as usual, this lends to lower
confidence and higher variability with the upper level wave
pattern after Thursday. With that said, surface high pressure will
effectively "block" the storm track away from Alaska and the
Bering Sea, so the weather pattern looks rather quiet and benign
with seasonable temperatures and what looks to be dry offshore
flow for most of Southern Alaska through mid-week. Further west,
there is a chance of a stronger system to impact much of the
Aleutians and southern Bering Thursday and into the weekend, along
with a leading front pushing through the southern Mainland and
Gulf over the weekend. However, there is very little model
agreement at this time with regards to this system, and confidence
in this solution remains low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 181.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 165 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP