Gale Warning 756, NWS Anchorage, AK

074 
FZAK52 PAFC 251235
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-260145-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1013 mb low 215 nm North of Atka remains nearly stationary and 
dissipates for Wed morning. The associated front wraps over the 
Northwestern Bering through Wed morning. A front moves over the 
Western Aleutians for Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-260145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-260145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-260145-
Bristol Bay-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-260145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-260145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-260145-
Unalaska Bay-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-260145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-260145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-260145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ175-260145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-260145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-260145-
Adak to Kiska-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-260145-
Kiska to Attu-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 14 ft. Pacific side, 
seas 15 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-260145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-260145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-260145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt.Seas 5 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-260145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
335 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level flow over Alaska this morning is dominated by a
meridional jet stream with a long wave trough extending from the
Kamchatka Peninsula southward across the Bering Sea and into the
North Pacific Ocean. Further east, a narrow high amplitude ridge
is located along the ALCAN border and extends from the Arctic
Ocean south into southwest Canada. A weakening low pressure
system is located just south of Cold Bay and is bringing strong
winds and snowfall to portions of the Western AKPEN. An elongated
front associated with this low is seen draped across the Gulf of
Alaska and into SW Alaska while slowly moving NE. The front,
supported by strong southeasterly flow, is bringing a band of
heavy precipitation to the Southern and Eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Elsewhere in the state, infrared imagery shows very cold air
pooling in the Copper River Basin, with temperatures observed
below -30 degrees C.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into better agreement regarding the track of the
surface low currently south of the AKPEN and is now bringing the
low north across Kodiak and up through the Kenai Peninsula
tomorrow. Thus, confidence has increased that the associated
front will bring a band of moderate to heavy precipitation
further north along the Eastern Kenai coastline and the Prince
William Sound tomorrow and Monday. There is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding specific details of this system including
total snowfall accumulations along the coast and how much, if
any, snowfall spills over the mountains as the system pushes out
of the area on Christmas Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front over the Gulf will continue to lift slowly northward
today then dissipate as it moves onshore in the Prince William
Sound tonight. With low level easterly flow, the bulk of
precipitation will fall along the eastern Kenai Peninsula/Western
Prince William Sound coast. Downslope flow and very dry air will
keep most of the western Kenai Peninsula dry. Although surface
temperatures are above freezing across most of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, dewpoints are all below freezing, so expect
temperatures to cool as precipitation moves in today leading to
snow for most areas.

Back behind the front, a surface low will lift northward across
Kodiak and the western Gulf tonight before dissipating in the
vicinity of the southern Kenai. A trailing upper level short-wave
will continue northward to Southcentral Monday night. It looks
weak, but when combined with increased instability may produce a
few snow showers. Have used a broad-brush approach to the precip
forecast due to weak unfocused forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The persistent southeasterly winds and cloudcover that has
produced widespread above freezing temperatures will begin to
diminish this afternoon as the low currently just south of the AK
pen moves into the Gulf. An upper level trough moving overhead
this evening will allow for a chance of light snow to return to
Bristol Bay after the strong cross barrier flow/downsloping ends,
which should allow for an inch or so of accumulation late tonight-
early Monday as the trough quickly moves through. Behind this
trough a period of quiet weather is then expected to develop late
Monday-Tuesday as weak onshore flow and high pressure moves in
from the Bering. This should allow temperatures to slowly fall
back to near normal by Tuesday with the only forecast concerns
being for the potential for patchy fog/stratus development.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The snow and blowing snow along the AK pen should slowly diminish
this morning as the trough and associated low south of the AK pen
move off to the east and weaken. Afterwards, much of the region
will move into a quieter and much less progressive pattern through
Tuesday as the broad trough that has been over the region for
over a week now is replaced by ridging moving in from the west.
Before this occurs, one last gale force low will move through the
Aleutians today, but impacts from it should be comparatively less
than many of the lows that have moved through recently. Ridging
will then move through the Western Aleutians on Monday, allowing
for winds throughout the region to diminish below gale force with
generally dry weather into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended forecast period Christmas evening, there
will be a weakening upper trough lifting northward along the Gulf
Coast and a weakening closed upper low over the central Aleutians.
These features are being met by an upper ridge building over the
eastern part of Alaska, as well as an amplifying ridge over the
western Bering/Aleutians. Rain and snow showers along the Gulf
Coast and northern parts of the southwest Mainland will taper off
slowly by Tuesday, as the trough moves inland and falls apart. By
that time, high latitude blocking in the vicinity of Eastern
Siberia and the Beaufort Sea will begin to exert a stronger
influence on the pattern, and as usual, this lends to lower
confidence and higher variability with the upper level wave
pattern after Thursday. With that said, surface high pressure will
effectively "block" the storm track away from Alaska and the
Bering Sea, so the weather pattern looks rather quiet and benign
with seasonable temperatures and what looks to be dry offshore
flow for most of Southern Alaska through mid-week. Further west,
there is a chance of a stronger system to impact much of the
Aleutians and southern Bering Thursday and into the weekend, along
with a leading front pushing through the southern Mainland and
Gulf over the weekend. However, there is very little model
agreement at this time with regards to this system, and confidence
in this solution remains low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 181.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 165 176 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP