Small Craft Advisory 962, NWS Anchorage, AK

191 
FZAK51 PAFC 151951 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160415-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the Western Gulf moves into the Eastern Gulf by Sun 
afternoon. A 982 mb low over Bristol Bay Sat night will move to 35 nm
east of Kodiak City at 989 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-160415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt by late morning. Seas
8 ft  building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160415-
Resurrection Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160415-
Prince William Sound-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft  building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160415-
Port Valdez-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160415-
Valdez Narrows-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160415-
Valdez Arm-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160415-
Passage Canal-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft
in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160415-
Barren Islands East-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft
in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160415-
Chiniak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160415-
Marmot Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160415-
Shelikof Strait-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft
in  the afternoon. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow with rain. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160415-
Kachemak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

222 
FZAK51 PAFC 160020
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161345-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front pushes across the Gulf of Alaska by Sat afternoon. A 992 mb 
low forms 100 nm West of Yakutat Sat morning and moves onshore near 
Yakutat Sat afternoon. A 989 mb low forms 80 nm North of Kodiak City 
Sun morning and moves to 70 nm West of Middleton Island at 996 mb Sun
afternoon. A 994 mb low 80 nm East of Chignik Sun morning moves to 
145 nm South of Kodiak City Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-161345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Near
the coast, SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Higher
gusts to 65 kt this evening. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161345-
Resurrection Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt by midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft by midnight. Higher 
winds and seas south of Caines Head. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161345-
Prince William Sound-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Gust to 60 kt near the entrance this 
evening. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161345-
Port Valdez-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers with
snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161345-
Valdez Narrows-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161345-
Valdez Arm-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to E wind 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161345-
Passage Canal-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt this evening. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161345-
Barren Islands East-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161345-
Chiniak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161345-
Marmot Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161345-
Shelikof Strait-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161345-
Kachemak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

144 
FZAK51 PAFC 161207
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170045-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves across the Gulf through this afternoon. A 993 mb low
40 nm southeast of Seldovia Sun morning moves to 85 nm east of
Middleton Island at 1005 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-170045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Along the coast, SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15
kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170045-
Resurrection Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170045-
Prince William Sound-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt by late morning. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170045-
Port Valdez-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170045-
Valdez Narrows-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt by late morning. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170045-
Valdez Arm-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt in the morning becoming SW 10 kt by late
morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170045-
Passage Canal-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170045-
Barren Islands East-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170045-
Chiniak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170045-
Marmot Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170045-
Shelikof Strait-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170045-
Kachemak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
602 PM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The broad upper trough which has been in place over the Bering Sea
and north-central Pacific for the past week is finally beginning
to break down and shift eastward. The main basal trough axis is
now shifting into the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon with a leading
edge shortwave trough moving north along the Gulf Coast. Satellite
imagery depicts a well defined anticyclonic deformation band
moving across Southcentral with a well defined area of moderate
precipitation over the North Gulf of Alaska spreading north into
Prince William Sound (as seen on the Middleton island radar).
There is an associated tight 987 mb surface low currently south of
the Copper River Delta. Over the Bering Sea, there is a broad low
972 mb low complex with one low center over the western Aleutians
and another lifting north just west of the Pribilof Islands.
South of the Aleutian Chain is where the main North Pacific jet
stream is, and there is another secondary basal low which will
eventually become a stronger low moving into Bristol Bay tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in excellent agreement with the large scale
synoptic pattern, as usual, and are now coming into better
agreement with the smaller scale details as well. The biggest area
of model convergence has been toward the development of a single
stronger low in the vicinity of Bristol Bay and east of the
Pribilof Islands. Moreover, the models have trended toward one
another with a secondary low forming over the Gulf of Alaska, but
with this low being much weaker than what some models were hinting
at the last two days (a few GFS model runs were forming a powerful
957 hpa low near Kodiak Friday night). The GFS has now backed away
from that particular solution, but it is still the strongest model
solution, by far. The differences are subtle but important, with
the GFS and NAM forming a closed low over the North Gulf Coast
which would enhance both the precipitation as well as the barrier
jet. The ECMWF and Canadian models would favor a faster frontal
progression as well as stronger winds down Turnagain Arm...along
with less precipitation building inland on Saturday (likely in the
form of snow). For this forecast, a blend to the GFS and ECMWF was
favored which stuck to consistency but also taking into account
some of the details of the weaker/faster solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light snow will spread into the terminal from the east
around 00-03z, lowering cigs below 5000 ft and possibly to MVFR
at times in CIGS and VIS. Conditions should then improve
overnight as the disturbance responsible for the snow showers
weakens and departs the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Snowfall intensity will pick up slightly across Anchorage and much
of the Mat-Su late this afternoon into evening as an upper level
short-wave trough moves up Cook Inlet, helping to pull some of
the deeper moisture from Prince William Sound westward. Weak low
level deformation will enhance snow amounts from about Wasilla
southeastward to Eagle River and on to east Anchorage and the
Hillside. In any case, expect light accumulation, with up to a
few inches. Snow will taper off overnight as the upper trough
continues to cross Southcentral. Meanwhile, notably heavier
precipitation will be over Western Prince William Sound where a
low is headed inland. Low level instability and upslope flow
behind this will keep showers going into the overnight hours.

Focus will then shift to a Gale force frontal boundary moving in
from the west on Friday. Expect high end Gales and moderate
precipitation as the front crosses the western Gulf and Kodiak
Island Friday morning. Precipitation may begin as snow, but will
quickly change to rain as warmer air arrives with the front. There
are some key differences in model guidance as to whether a triple
point low develops along the front Friday afternoon/evening. This
leads to a lower confidence forecast as the front approaches the
north Gulf coast and Kenai Peninsula late Friday. These differences
will affect speed of the front, extent of downsloping west of the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains, and precipitation type across the
Kenai Peninsula. For now, have gone with an intermediate solution
which depicts a weak low center, and focuses on the strong
easterly flow with the front. With a more southerly component to
the flow aloft, have maintained a chance of precip in the usual
downslope areas. Forecast confidence continues to drop Friday
night and Saturday due to uncertainties in triple point low as
well as the difficulty in timing upper level waves moving in
behind this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday evening)

The much-talked about storm is progressing towards the area, as
one strong low forms across the Bristol bay region. An attendant
front will sweep northeastward through the next 24 hours, with
widespread precipitation developing along it. Initially snow will
be the predominant precipitation type, some of which may be of
moderate intensity at times, which could reduce visibilities to
1/2 mile or less at times.

Snowfall accumulations will occur within the first 6 hours of it
beginning, right ahead of the front. With a tightening pressure
gradient, winds will gust in the 30 to 45 mph range across much of
the area, which may cause some blowing snow issues for a brief
period of time. eventually as the front continues its northward
journey, warmer air in the lowest few thousand feet of the
atmosphere will allow precipitation to change over to rain
following the frontal passage, while becoming more scattered on
coverage. Further south and west down the peninsula, the warmer
air will surge in quicker, with any snowfall accumulations minimal
before things quickly switch over to rain.

As this low moves north, a western Bering low will head
towards the peninsula for Saturday into Sunday, with disturbances
aloft rotating around it, continuing our precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Sunday evening)

The forecast remains on track, with a 970 mb low spinning just
east of Shemya, with an attendant cold front currently near Adak.
As the front continues its eastward trek tonight, another
developing low will ride northward up the front from the North
Pacific. This low will deepen to 971 mb as it crosses western
portions of the AKpen tonight, before strengthening further as it
heads towards Nunivak Island Friday evening.

Widespread precipitation is likely ahead of the front, some of
which may be moderate to heavy at times for the central Aleutians
through the peninsula. For the near shore and open waters, gale
force winds will develop near both the advancing front and around
the periphery of the double-barrel low pressure systems.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Sun through Thu)...
The long term will continue to see rather active weather, though
cooler (more seasonable) temperatures should move back in.
A fairly broad trough will slide through the area Sun into Mon.
There are several pieces of energy within this trough that could
produce precipitation. Let's start where there is the most
certainty...the Gulf Coast. A potent surface front and persistent
onshore flow will continue to keep things very wet from Seward
over to Yakutat. Gusty winds will also accompany the front.
Precipitation should be mostly rain right along the coast, but
inland just a short ways, there will be enough cold air
(especially over the higher terrain like Thompson Pass) to see the
rain turn to snow. Where there is less certainty is across Cook
Inlet. There is likely shot for some snow Sat night into Sun
morning. There is an outside chance that this snow could linger
into Sun a bit longer resulting in a few inches of accumulation.

Meanwhile on Sun into Mon over the Bering, a deep "bomb" cyclone
will develop. This will bring storm-force winds and rain/snow to
much of the Central and Western Aleutians. In response to this
system, a sharp short-wave ridge will build over the Eastern
Bering. This short-wave ridge will push quickly over the mainland
on Mon. It will have a little cold air to work with over Western
AK, so expect some gusty northwest winds to push through the
typical spots (Barren Islands, Shelikof Strait). The front
associated with the 950 mb "bomb" cyclone will slam into Western
AK late Mon into Tue. Precipitation will start as snow, but should
transition to rain across the southern portion of the area. Stay
tuned to this system as some of the initial snow could be quite
heavy.

Model uncertainty starts to b, mainly north and west of a Levelock
to Port Alsworth line. uild as this front slides towards South
Central AK. Some models depict it bringing a healthy shot of snow
to the Cook Inlet, while others show it washing out before it
makes it that far east. Then uncertainty really begins to increase
towards the end of the week. All models hint at a resurgence of
the North American Ridge (think weather pattern for first half of
Dec), which would once again allow a deep fetch of moisture and
warm air to move over the state from the N Pacific. Exactly where
the ridge sets up will be critical for nailing down sensible
weather at the surface.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 161.
MARINE...Storm warning 119. Gales 120 125 130 131 132 136 137 150
155 160 165 172-174 176-180 185 351 352 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MO