Gale Warning 732, NWS Anchorage, AK

241 
FZAK51 PAFC 151213
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160130-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the Western Gulf moves into the Eastern Gulf by Sun 
afternoon. A 982 mb low over Bristol Bay Sat night will move to 35 nm
east of Kodiak City at 989 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-160130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt by late morning. Seas 8 ft 
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160130-
Resurrection Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160130-
Prince William Sound-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160130-
Port Valdez-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160130-
Valdez Narrows-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160130-
Valdez Arm-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160130-
Passage Canal-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft in
the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160130-
Barren Islands East-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160130-
Chiniak Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160130-
Marmot Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160130-
Shelikof Strait-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in 
the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow with rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160130-
Kachemak Bay-
313 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

191 
FZAK51 PAFC 151951 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160415-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the Western Gulf moves into the Eastern Gulf by Sun 
afternoon. A 982 mb low over Bristol Bay Sat night will move to 35 nm
east of Kodiak City at 989 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-160415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt by late morning. Seas
8 ft  building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160415-
Resurrection Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160415-
Prince William Sound-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft  building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160415-
Port Valdez-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160415-
Valdez Narrows-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160415-
Valdez Arm-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160415-
Passage Canal-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft
in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160415-
Barren Islands East-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft
in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160415-
Chiniak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160415-
Marmot Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160415-
Shelikof Strait-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft
in  the afternoon. Snow and rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow with rain. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160415-
Kachemak Bay-
1051 AM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

222 
FZAK51 PAFC 160020
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161345-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front pushes across the Gulf of Alaska by Sat afternoon. A 992 mb 
low forms 100 nm West of Yakutat Sat morning and moves onshore near 
Yakutat Sat afternoon. A 989 mb low forms 80 nm North of Kodiak City 
Sun morning and moves to 70 nm West of Middleton Island at 996 mb Sun
afternoon. A 994 mb low 80 nm East of Chignik Sun morning moves to 
145 nm South of Kodiak City Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-161345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Near
the coast, SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Higher
gusts to 65 kt this evening. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 18
ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161345-
Resurrection Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt by midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft by midnight. Higher 
winds and seas south of Caines Head. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161345-
Prince William Sound-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Gust to 60 kt near the entrance this 
evening. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161345-
Port Valdez-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers with
snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161345-
Valdez Narrows-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161345-
Valdez Arm-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to E wind 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161345-
Passage Canal-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt this evening. Seas 5 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161345-
Barren Islands East-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161345-
Chiniak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161345-
Marmot Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161345-
Shelikof Strait-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161345-
Kachemak Bay-
320 PM AKST Fri Dec 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

144 
FZAK51 PAFC 161207
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170045-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves across the Gulf through this afternoon. A 993 mb low
40 nm southeast of Seldovia Sun morning moves to 85 nm east of
Middleton Island at 1005 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-170045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Along the coast, SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15
kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170045-
Resurrection Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170045-
Prince William Sound-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt by late morning. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170045-
Port Valdez-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170045-
Valdez Narrows-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt by late morning. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170045-
Valdez Arm-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt in the morning becoming SW 10 kt by late
morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170045-
Passage Canal-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170045-
Barren Islands East-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170045-
Chiniak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170045-
Marmot Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170045-
Shelikof Strait-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170045-
Kachemak Bay-
307 AM AKST Sat Dec 16 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Thu Dec 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A subtle pattern change is underway this morning as the persistent
ridge over the CONUS and western Canada shifts slightly eastward
and an upper level trough lifts into the Gulf from the southwest.
In terms of sensible weather impacts, conditions are much the
same as in recent days. Scattered rain showers are present across
much of the southern mainland in broad onshore flow, though many
locations are mostly dry in between systems. More steady rain is
beginning to spread back into eastern portions of Prince William
Sound as the latest embedded wave tracks through the eastern Gulf.
A sprawling low pressure system is nudging eastward over the
Western Aleutians, with an occluded front located between the
central and eastern parts of the chain and widespread rain/snow
shower activity over the western half of the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement through the end of the week
as the ridge breaks down. This will allow a colder southwest flow
regime to develop as the Bering trough shifts eastward towards
the southwest mainland. Models have also come into somewhat better
agreement with some of the details of the broad low complex as it
shifts slowly eastward through the Bering. The largest
differences arise with a strong low progged to move into the
western Gulf late Friday night. Nearly every solution suggests a
much stronger system than was depicted 24 hrs ago, however there
are still significant discrepancies with respect to low placement
and intensity. Favored the 18/00z GFS solution for the morning
package as it represents a decent middle ground approach at this
time. An additional overnight trend worth watching is that the
precipitation associated with the wave tracking over the eastern
Gulf has been inching westward with each successive model run,
suggesting the potential for some light snow to make it into
Anchorage later this afternoon. Will continue to monitor this
trend today in ensuing runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through early
this afternoon. Light snow showers will spread into the terminal
from the east around 00z, lowering cigs below 5000 ft and possibly
to MVFR at times. Conditions should then improve overnight as the
disturbance responsible for the snow showers weakens and departs
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A fairly strong low over the northern Gulf will move into Prince
William Sound this afternoon. Precipitation will continue to push
west and north today, with rain along the coast and snow for most
inland areas. The numerical models are now in fairly good
agreement that precipitation from this system will likely spread
as far west as Anchorage. The 850 mb temperatures will be cold
enough along the western fringes of this low that the
precipitation type for Anchorage probably will be snow. This
system will then push northeast and break apart tonight as the
flow aloft becomes southwesterly. The next system will move into
the area from the southwest on Friday. The front will reach Kodiak
Island late tonight and the Kenai Peninsula by late morning. Winds
will be quite strong over the Gulf and through Turnagain as the
front approaches. By late afternoon the numerical models begin
struggle, mainly with where/when a possible triple point low will
develop along the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland will be in a col today as the next low
develops across the western Bering. A triple point low develops
along the frontal boundary as it crosses the Alaska Peninsula,
then quickly races toward the southwest coast tonight. The next 30
hours brings a challenging forecast for precipitation types and
amounts. Generally increased winds and precipitation along the
front and added blowing snow along the Western Capes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The storm system currently over the western Aleutians will slowly
lift north and advance eastward through Saturday bringing snow and
rain along the southern Bering with snow across the Central and
northern waters. The main challenge with this system is a triple
point low which is expected to develop late today just south of
the eastern Aleutians. This low tracks north crossing to the
eastern Bering overnight. Gale winds increase rapidly along the
associated frontal boundary with moderate to heavy rain and snow.
Winds taper down Friday night, however precipitation continues
through the weekend as low pressure remains dominant.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Sat through Wed)...
"Uncertainty" is the key word in this timeframe. The weather
models not only continue to conflict with one another, they also
conflict with themselves on nearly each successive run. The result
is overall low forecast confidence in most of this period. The
general theme to the pattern will be a broad trough sliding
further east over the Eastern Bering. This will be possible
because the stout North American ridge that has been locked in
place over the West Coast of the Lower 48 will finally give-way a
little bit. As the trough slides east, its southeast quadrant will
interact with an intense sub-tropical jet. This generally leads
to strong triple-point low development. However, because of the
vast uncertainty on where exactly the trough sets up, and more
importantly, where the low center is within the trough, it is
extremely difficult to bite off on any one solution. Late Friday
night, there is agreement that another wet and windy front will
push into the north Gulf coast. It is early Sat that the GFS is by
far the most bullish in carrying a mid-950 mb low right over
Kodiak Island. This scenario would lead to a similar set- up to
what we have seen several times this week with heavy rain along
the north Gulf coast and strong winds from S/SE to N/NW. The NAM,
EC, and Canadian are a bit less intense and further east with this
feature. The net effect will be another round of rain and wind
for much of the Gulf. However, exactly where this low tracks and
how strong it is will have implications on snow versus rain for
certain areas and how strong the barrier jet might be.

The one area where this is good certainty is with a "bomb" cyclone
over the Western Bering late in the weekend into early next week.
Cold air over Siberia will work in tandem with a strong 300 mb
jet to rapidly deepen a surface low pressure center. Models all
prog it to near 950 mb or slightly lower. This will produce storm
force winds and seas approaching 35 feet.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 172 174
					  176 177 178 179 180 185 351 352 411 412 414

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MSO