Small Craft Advisory 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

296 
FZAK51 PAFC 261302
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270145-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 mb low 30 nm south of Middleton Island will move near Seward 
by this afternoon then it will dissipate as it moves inland by this 
evening. A front will enter the western Gulf today and move to the 
northern to eastern Gulf Mon afternoon. Another front will cross the 
Gulf Mon night. 

$$

PKZ119-270145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.  Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270145-
Resurrection Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270145-
Prince William Sound-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270145-
Port Valdez-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270145-
Valdez Narrows-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270145-
Valdez Arm-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270145-
Passage Canal-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270145-
Barren Islands East-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. N of Dangerous Cape, seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft except 14 ft N of Dangerous Cape.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270145-
Chiniak Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270145-
Marmot Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270145-
Shelikof Strait-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270145-
Kachemak Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Nov 26 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
605 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main weather feature over the region today is the strong and
still intensifying low centered in the western Aleutians and
encompassing most of the Bering Sea. This low has a strong
temperature gradient near the surface and is receiving strong
upper level support in the upper-left exit region of the jet
stream.
Downstream of this low there is an upper level ridge along the
Southwest coast of the state. A smaller, but not unimportant upper
level feature, is a shortwave trough that is over the Susitna
Valley which is helping to bring cold temperatures under and east
of it. This trough will also impact the movement of a weak upper
level disturbance moving westward along the north Gulf coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest model question for the past few days is the behavior
of the intense Bering Sea low after it moves into Bristol Bay
Sunday Night in to Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian models began to
shift the low farther south and across the Alaska Peninsula with
another strengthening low in the vicinity of Adak on Monday. The
12Z GFS run is now heading this direction as well as the 18Z NAM.
Therefore, confidence is increasing that there will be little, if
any, coastal flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay as
the track of the low and subsequent weakening of it are not
conducive for flooding.

The north Gulf coast also has a bit of a change that the models
are currently working out. The weak low tracking westward into
Prince William Sound from the east is moving faster and progressing
farther west that expected which is bringing some snow to the
sound today and could impact as far west as Anchorage tomorrow
before getting caught up in the upper level trough near the
Talkeetna Mountains tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist into
Sunday. There may be some wind shear that develops late Sunday
afternoon with the northerly surface winds combined with
increasing Southeast winds at mountaintop level over the Chugach
Mountains.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The small area of low pressure over the northern Gulf has
certainly been outperforming today. Several hours of snow were
seen in Cordova, including some heavy at times, and that moisture
continues to press westward, now to eastern Prince William Sound.
As a result, the winds have been much slower to diminish through
Port Valdez, the Narrows and the Valdez Arm, and also in Whittier
as the low has kept the pressure gradient causing the winds
strong. The low is weakening, however, and the expected
continuation of that weakening should finally result in the winds
slackening off in all the above areas tonight. Meanwhile the
associated snowfall will continue moving west and envelop the rest
of the western Prince William Sound this evening. The associated
cloud cover will continue further, eventually causing the clouds
to increase across Anchorage and the Cook Inlet region late
tonight. That cloud cover should keep the temperatures up over
the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su Valleys, and the
coldest temperatures of the season are no longer expected tonight.

On Sunday, a strong warm front associated with a monster storm
over the Bering will make its way across Kodiak Island during the
morning. Precipitation will also continue across much of Prince
William Sound during the day (especially the west side), as a warm
southeast upslope wind kicks up. The precipitation will start out
as snow everywhere, then transition to rain in Kodiak Sunday
evening, and along much of the Gulf Coast and portions of Prince
William Sound by Sunday night. As the front pushes northward into
the coast late Sunday night, the winds will also kick up along
much of the Gulf Coast, causing a gale force barrier jet east of
Hinchinbrook Island through much of the day Monday before
weakening Monday evening. The gusty winds will also increase
through Passage Canal, Portage Valley, and Turnagain Arm Sunday
night into Monday as well. The ongoing snowfall should remain as
snow (albeit becoming a wet, heavy snow), but along with the gusty
winds could cause blowing snow and some visibility issues in
those same areas.

The strong southeast flow associated with the front Sunday night
and Monday is expected to downslope out anything more than
flurries or an isolated snow shower across Anchorage, the Mat-Su
Valleys, and western Kenai Peninsula. Thus Sunday night and
Monday will be much warmer, mainly cloudy, but also mostly dry in
those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cloudcover will continue rolling into the area this evening as a
front associated with a rapidly deepening Bering low approaches.
This front will bring increasing winds along the Alaska Peninsula,
Western Capes, and Kuskokwim Delta coast by late tonight, which
will then quickly be followed by snow and blowing snow for much of
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The heaviest
accumulations from this front will likely occur over inland and
western Bristol Bay where overrunning will allow for temperatures
to remain cold enough for more significant accumulations. Over the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, most of the snowfall should occur from
Nunivak Island southward, with areas further north and east only
receiving a glancing blow from the front and minimal
accumulations. The front should then dissipate from north to south
beginning Sunday evening, allowing for conditions to improve
throughout the area by late Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Winds will continue ramping up throughout the region this evening
as the intensifying hurricane force low crosses the chain near
Adak. Afternoon ASCAT satellite data confirmed a widespread swath
of 65-75 kt winds over the water to the south of this low, which
will continue spreading eastward tonight into Sunday morning. This
storm still has to potential to bring wind gusts near 100 mph
from Adak eastward all the way to Unalaska, with the strongest
winds developing from west-to-east late tonight into Sunday
morning. The models did trend slightly deeper with this low as it
stalls just south of the Pribilof Islands on Sunday, as a result
high winds are expected to last longer during the evening on
Sunday than initially expected. There is also very strong cold
air advection behind this low, which has already been strong
enough to bring accumulating snow to sea level in the Western
Aleutians, which will then spread into the Central Aleutians on
Sunday morning. Thankfully, this snowfall should be too wet/heavy
for significant blowing snow to develop despite the strong
northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast confidence in the long-term period is fairly low at this
point, due to the run to run variation in the models over the
past few days. The overall change in the pattern from a clear and
dry pattern for the mainland to a warmer and stormier pattern
still stands, but the exact timing and effects of the low pressure
systems seems to change from model to model on a run to run
basis.

Current thinking is that a low will rapidly develop into another
storm-force system in the Bering Sea on Tuesday, bringing high
winds once again to the Aleutians. This low is expected to develop
a secondary low south of the AK Pen, pushing a strong front into
South Central Tuesday night into Wednesday. A lot of warm air is
associated with this front, which will cause some challenges with
forecasting precipitation type, in particular in the Bristol Bay
and Kenai Peninsula regions. High winds with the front may move
through Southcentral -- although current model runs are slightly
weaker than yesterday.

After Wednesday, another front moves into the Western Bering on
Thursday and begins to cross the Bering Sea. Although this
indicates a continued stormy pattern, the timing and strength of
this system is highly variable between model solutions, so
confidence in current specifics of the forecast remains low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 187
         Winter Weather Advisory 155 161
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 170 172-177
         Storm Warning 155 160 165 171 178 180 181 185
         Gale Warning 119 127 130 150 165 179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
945 PM AKST SAT NOV 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S ADAK STATION        51.83N 176.64W
11/25/2017  M89 MPH                             AK   MESONET

            WIND GUSTS MEASURED AT 89MPH BEGINNING AT 818 PM AKST ON
            SATURDAY NOVEMBER 27, 2017. OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS FROM
            THE AIRPORT AWOS AT THE TIME WERE AROUND 74 MPH.

&&

ADIXON