Small Craft Advisory 853, NWS Anchorage, AK

318 
FZAK51 PAFC 091253
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-100200-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low will form 30 nm Southeast of Seward Thu afternoon and
move to 125 nm South of Yakutat at 999 mb Fri afternoon then move to
175 nm South of Yakutat at 1002 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-100200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-100200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-100200-
Resurrection Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
building to 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-100200-
Prince William Sound-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-100200-
Port Valdez-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-100200-
Valdez Narrows-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-100200-
Valdez Arm-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-100200-
Passage Canal-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-100200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-100200-
Barren Islands East-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-100200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-100200-
Chiniak Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-100200-
Marmot Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-100200-
Shelikof Strait-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-100200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-100200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-100200-
Kachemak Bay-
353 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

874 
FZAK51 PAFC 100037
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101315-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 mb low near Middleton island will move to 160 nm southeast
of Middleton Island at 1001 mb by Fri afternoon then it will then
exit into the southeastern Gulf by Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-101315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101315-
Resurrection Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101315-
Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt...strongest W of Seal Island. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101315-
Port Valdez-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez
towards morning. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101315-
Valdez Narrows-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101315-
Valdez Arm-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101315-
Passage Canal-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier toward morning. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing Spray along the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Freezing Spray along the coast.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101315-
Barren Islands East-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101315-
Chiniak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101315-
Marmot Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101315-
Shelikof Strait-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 8 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101315-
Kachemak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the evening.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

447 
FZAK51 PAFC 101300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110145-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low 30 nm south of Yakutat moves southeast of the Gulf Sat
afternoon. High pressure moves into the western Gulf through Sun 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-110145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110145-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110145-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110145-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110145-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110145-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110145-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110145-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110145-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110145-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110145-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-110145-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt during the morning. Seas 5 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

820 
FZAK51 PAFC 102327
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-111215-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low 190 nm southeast of Middleton Island moves into the
southeastern Gulf by Sat evening. High pressure moves into the 
western Gulf through Sun.

$$

PKZ119-111215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-111215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-111215-
Resurrection Bay-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-111215-
Prince William Sound-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-111215-
Port Valdez-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Valdez. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-111215-
Valdez Narrows-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-111215-
Valdez Arm-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-111215-
Passage Canal-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-111215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-111215-
Barren Islands East-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-111215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-111215-
Chiniak Bay-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-111215-
Marmot Bay-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-111215-
Shelikof Strait-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-111215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-111215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-111215-
Kachemak Bay-
227 PM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Current analysis shows an upper level ridge axis over the ALCAN
border continuing to move off to the east while a broad upper
trough is located over the northwestern part of the state. A weak
shortwave trough is moving east across southcentral but is rapidly
weakening as the upper level support pulls northeast and runs into
the ridge to the east. Satellite imagery shows a thin and nearly
stationary trough with associated cloud cover extending south into
the southern Gulf which is quickly shearing apart. With the
exception of a few high clouds, skies are mostly clear across
the eastern domain leading to cold temperatures this morning. In
fact, temperatures in the Copper River Basin have dropped into
the negative teens.

Out west, zonal flow is dominant across the Bering though a few
weak embedded shortwaves are leading to an area of rain and snow
showers moving east across the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall, models are in good agreement through the much of the
short term. The biggest differences revolve around the system
pushing through southern portions of the state on Thursday,
especially as the frontal boundary makes its way across the Alaska
Range and into southcentral. The GFS shows the precipitation band
falling apart quite a bit before reaching populated areas across
southcentral by Thursday afternoon while the NAM and EC show the
front maintaining more of its structure leading to slightly higher
snowfall amounts over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue through
the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The short term in Southcentral will see a progressive pattern
with a weak trough moving quickly to the east with zonal flow
over the area today. A sharp trough will move in behind it
tomorrow, and then another ridge will be moving into the area
Friday.

The biggest forecast question will be if any snow will be
associated with Thursday's upper level trough. While the trough
should have enough lift associated with it, the moisture will be
somewhat limited. It is also moving eastward at a pretty good pace
which also is a limiting factor. However, newest model runs are
continuing to increase POPs and QPF values somewhat and most of
the elements are there for a quick shot of snow tomorrow afternoon
in the Anchorage and Mat-Su areas as well as the Kenai Peninsula.
Even so, amounts are not expected to be very high with the
limited moisture and speed of the trough.

After this trough a low will develop along the northeastern Gulf
coast, ushering in gusty northerly winds along the Gulf coast on
Friday and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level disturbance propagates eastward across the
Southwest mainland through this afternoon bringing light snow to
the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. As the weak front associated
with this system nears the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges this
afternoon, precipitation may mix with or change over to rain as
temperatures moderate to near or just above freezing.

The next system to impact the region moves in this evening from
the Bering bringing rain and snow into Thursday. A front
organizes across the central Bering as a strong short wave moves
from the base of an Arctic low this afternoon. The front moves
across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening and continues on an
eastward track. Locations along the southwest will be warm enough
initially to support rain as a warm wedge of air slides overhead;
however, a colder air mass advects along the front changing
precipitation over to snow. There is still some uncertainty on
snow amounts as this is a rapidly developing system over the
Bering where observations are sparse.  If the front should move
across slower than expected higher amounts would be possible
across west facing slopes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Gusty westerly flow prevails across the Bering today as a nearly
zonal pattern is squeezed between low pressure over the Arctic and
a ridge just south of the Aleutians. The low swings a strong short
wave, currently across the western Bering, toward the Southwest
mainland. Gusty gale winds and rain are expected to develop along
the front which will stretch from north to south over the entire
Bering as it passes on an eastward track. Cold air advection
across the northern waters will change precipitation over to snow
along and north of Saint Matthew Island this afternoon. The front
moves across to the Alaska Peninsula tonight and then into the
western Gulf Thursday morning. A few showers will be possible
along short waves moving around the ridge which builds across the
Bering in the wake of the front. A warmer subtropical air mass
associated with the ridge modifies temperatures above normal into
the beginning of the weekend keeping light precipitation as rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The numerical models are in very good agreement for the long term
portion of the forecast, therefore the confidence today is higher
than normal. The basic pattern is anchored by a long wave ridge
that is negatively tilted from about 170 degrees west longitude
near the Aleutians to west of 180 in the northern Bering Sea. A
downstream long wave trough will reside over eastern Alaska into
the Yukon territory. Several short wave troughs top the ridge and
drop northwest to southeast across the state during the forecast
period. The strongest of these drops through on Sunday. The WPC
guidance uses a nearly equal blend of the GFS and ECMWF. The
forecast incorporates a considerable portion of the deterministic
solutions along with the ensemble means, especially in the early
periods.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 130 131 165 170 175 177 179 180 181 185 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...BL