Gale Warning 609, NWS Anchorage, AK

874 
FZAK51 PAFC 100037
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101315-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 mb low near Middleton island will move to 160 nm southeast
of Middleton Island at 1001 mb by Fri afternoon then it will then
exit into the southeastern Gulf by Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-101315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101315-
Resurrection Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101315-
Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt...strongest W of Seal Island. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101315-
Port Valdez-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez
towards morning. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101315-
Valdez Narrows-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101315-
Valdez Arm-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101315-
Passage Canal-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt near Whittier toward morning. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing Spray along the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Freezing Spray along the coast.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101315-
Barren Islands East-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101315-
Chiniak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101315-
Marmot Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 6 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101315-
Shelikof Strait-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 8 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101315-
Kachemak Bay-
337 PM AKST Thu Nov 9 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the evening.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

447 
FZAK51 PAFC 101300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110145-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low 30 nm south of Yakutat moves southeast of the Gulf Sat
afternoon. High pressure moves into the western Gulf through Sun 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-110145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110145-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110145-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110145-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110145-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110145-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110145-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110145-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110145-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110145-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110145-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-110145-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Nov 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt during the morning. Seas 5 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Broad west to southwest flow aloft with weak embedded waves
extends from the western Bering Sea to across Southcentral Alaska.
The waves over the mainland are predominately cloud makers with
only a smattering of showers over the western mainland. The more
significant of the waves in the wave train, located over the
Central Bering Sea this morning, has a developing surface low and
frontal boundary associated with it. It is moving rapidly east and
will be the main weather maker over the next 24-36 hours as it
heads east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Overall, models are in good agreement with the main features,
upper trough and associated weather front, which moves across the
mainland. Models however differ on QPF amounts. Will probably lean
toward the higher resolution models in this regard as well as for
outflow winds across the Gulf coast Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue through tonight.
MVFR to IFR ceiling and visibilities in snow are expected Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Zonal flow aloft will continue through tonight. On Thursday a
trough will push into the area from the west. This system is
moving fairly fast. There does appear to be enough dynamics with
this system to produce some snow for much of Southcentral. This
includes the Anchorage area and the Matanuska valley, with the
flow aloft from the southwest. Accumulations should be fairly
light due to the speed of the system. After this trough passes
through late Thursday, a fairly strong offshore event will begin.
A surface low will form just south of the Kenai Peninsula
Thursday afternoon that will move to the east-southeast through
Friday. Cold advection will help to drive the winds, with the
usual areas (including Seward, Whittier, Valdez) becoming fairly
gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong upper-level trough stretched from the Chukchi Sea,
through Saint Paul Island, towards the central Aleutians this
afternoon. Water vapor imagery was showing surface low development
has commenced near Saint Paul Island. This low will rapidly
deepen to near 993 mb as it moves ashore in the Golovin area late
this evening, with a strong front extending south from this low.
With very good surface convergence along it seen in the model
data, look for widespread precipitation to develop along this
front as it sweeps eastward through Thursday.

As for precipitation type, that becomes a little tricky once you
get near or just south of the Kuskokwim Delta. Soundings along
the coast in this region show a warm wedge from the surface
through about 2000 feet. However, moderately intense precipitation
rates will allow for some snowflakes to survive the trip through
the melting layer during the first few hours. After that, the
lower levels of the atmosphere will cool enough for a transition
to all snow to occur before the precipitation ends. Most
locations will see 1 to 4 inches of snowfall, with higher amounts
likely once you get closer to the Alaskan Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A developing surface low near Saint Paul Island will lift north
towards Golovin by late this evening, with an attendant surface
cold front sweeping eastward. Gale force winds will precede this
front across the eastern Bering and adjacent coastal waters of
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. Rain will transition
to snow following frontal passage from west to east, with winds
subsiding behind the front, as a ridge of high pressure builds in
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models remain in very good agreement through much of the long term
forecast, with some minor discrepancies out west during the early
part of next week. Models continue to agree and provide higher
confidence in a long-wave ridge over much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian chain, and a long-wave trough over Southcentral Alaska
and the Gulf Friday night through Monday morning. Several short
wave troughs traverse the top of the ridge, and drop northwest to
southeast across the state during the forecast period. The
strongest of these waves drop through the southern Mainland on
Sunday, providing some strong gusty outflow winds along the
northern Gulf and Alaska Peninsula through Monday. Some light snow
showers are expected to develop as this system tracks through
Southcentral, however the limiting factor on snowfall amounts will
be dependent on how much moisture is available. As of now, there
is limited amounts of moisture available during this time frame,
so we are expecting a quick shot of light snow showers Sunday into
Monday.

The models continue to struggle with regards to the placement and
track of a north Pacific low and its associated front impacting
the western half of the Bering and Aleutians Sunday into the
middle of next week. The slightly faster GFS track was preferred
overall, which the 12Z ECMWF trended toward and WPC guidance
leaned toward today. There remains lower confidence on the timing
and strength of the system overall, but there is higher confidence
in wet and gusty conditions making their way through the western
and central Bering/Aleutians Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 121 127 130-132 136-138 150 165 170 178-181 351 352
411 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...P Doll
LONG TERM...Pepe