Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 25, 2017, 3:11 PM AKST (00:11 UTC)

Expired

Jan 26, 2017, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

569 
FZAK52 PAFC 260011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261300-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 967
MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF KING COVE MOVES TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN AT 973
MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF MEKORYUK AT 984
MB FRI AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-261300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-261300-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-261300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-261300-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-261300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-261300-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-261300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-261300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-261300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-261300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-261300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-261300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-261300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-261300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 25, 5:49 AM AKST, 9 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Wed Jan 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main weather features impacting the area this morning include
a large surface low south of the eastern Aleutians with an
associated frontal system pushing north over the eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A previous front weakening to a
trough along the northern Gulf coast lifts inland, while another
trough in the central Gulf tracks north to replace it.
Precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf
coast is falling as a mix of rain and snow with scattered snow
showers further inland. Snow showers also prevail along the
Kuskokwim Delta and greater Bristol Bay area where another trough
is lifting through.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models initially start in good agreement with regards to the
position of the surface low, frontal system and assortment of
troughs. By this evening however model solutions start diverging
with more significant differences in low positions apparent
Thursday and Thursday night. The GFS was preferred for both
domains as a good compromise solution though blended with some of
the higher resolution models to add detail.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through Thu morning although a
weak wave lifting north over the area this morning may bring some
light snow showers with brief periods of MVFR. Southeasterly winds
will increase rapidly through Turnagain Arm this afternoon and
evening making low level wind shear a concern for some PANC
approaches/departures. With a strong northerly down Cook Inlet
gradient the stronger southeasterly surface winds are expected to
bend away from PANC through midday Thu but do have the potential
to reach the terminal Thu afternoon or evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main focus of the forecast today is the progression of an
impressive frontal system northward, which will bring both steady
precipitation to the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince
William Sound and widespread gusty winds by late tonight. Currently
the greatest uncertainty lies in the intensity of both the wind
gusts through Turnagain Arm and intensity of local precipitation.
All models present a different solution on the progression and
intensity of the triple point low, which results in a wide range
of wind gust intensities through Turnagain arm and also through
higher elevations. There is also some uncertainty in how much warm
air is available with this system. However, there should be enough
warm air to transition to a rain snow mix by tonight, especially
at lower elevations. Precipitation will generally be limited
across the Anchorage Bowl due to downsloping. However,
temperatures are expected to warm as downslope winds intensify
throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the Southwest will see a brief break in the snow today as
the upper level shortwave lifts northward into the western
interior. A weakening front associated with a low centered south
of the Aleutians will then spread snow back into Bristol Bay by
late this evening. This front will be much weaker than initially
expected, and should only provide a few inches of new snowfall
mainly to the Western Bristol Bay. Gusty easterly winds will also
accompany this front, which will likely bring areas of blowing
snow to the western Bristol Bay beginning this evening. The upper
level trough associated with this system will then approach the
Southwest Coast on Thursday, allowing for snow continue mainly in
Northern Bristol Bay. This upper trough will then remain just west
of the area into Friday, bringing cloudy skies with at least a
chance of snow to the region for the rest of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Most of the focus in the region will be centered around a
weakening low just south of Dutch Harbor that will spread into the
Eastern Bering as it weakens through Friday. The front associated
with this low will bring gale force winds and snow to the AK pen
today before spreading into into the Southeast Bering and
weakening this evening. Starting tomorrow, a deformation band will
then setup behind this low over the Northern Bering, bringing
widespread snow showers, gusty northerly winds and areas of
blowing snow that will spread into the Pribilof's by Thursday
afternoon, creating minor blowing snow conditions. This band will
then spread into the Eastern Aleutians/AK pen late Thursday,
bringing snow showers and gusty northerly winds to those areas
into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Thursday night through the weekend the dominant upper low over the
Bering stays in a highly active cycle, pinwheeling strong waves
around it's periphery. There is high uncertainty in this pattern
as models diverge in solution Thursday night as the first
significant wave rounds the base of the broad trough over the
eastern gulf and then begins to lift north. At the same time,
energy from the Arctic and Subtropics feed into the backside of
this system. Overall, the southern mainland and surrounding waters
continue with an active precipitation pattern. The biggest
uncertainty in the extended forecast is how the temperatures
modify between the colder air being pulled in from the Arctic
while warm air intrudes from the Subtropics.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 101 125.
MARINE...Storm 119 125.
         Gale 120 129 130 131 139 170 172 173 179.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
926 AM AKST WED JAN 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     SNOW             VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
01/25/2017  M8.7 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL. NO MIXING YET. WET CONSISTENCY. 31
            DEGREES. SNOW ONGOING.

&&

JPW

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2017Every small craft advisory in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.