Small Craft Advisory 817, NWS Anchorage, AK

473 
FZAK52 PAFC 291132
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300030-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 mb low 390 nm south of Adak will move to 85 nm north of 
Dutch Harbor at 990 mb by Sun night and then to 40 nm south of
Kipnuk at 1002 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-300030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt, Seas 17 ft building to 25 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 30 kt increasing to
40 kt after midnight, Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt except S 40 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 29 ft except 23 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300030-
Bristol Bay-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 20 kt increasing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt
becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300030-
Unalaska Bay-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 29 ft after
midnight.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding to 20 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300030-
Adak to Kiska-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300030-
Kiska to Attu-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. From
Shemya W, SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-300030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure now dominates the Gulf with the ridging extending
over Southcentral Alaska. Out west a trough extends down from the
Bering Strait through the western Being. A weak low is riding up
the eastern side of the trough with its front extending across the
Kuskokwim Delta and eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement through the mid term with the
exception of the GEM's handling of the low moving into the Bering
on Sunday. The biggest difference between it and the other models
is that it has the low tracking faster from when the low
approaches the Aleutians through when it makes it over southwest
Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Patchy fog
should form along Knik Arm but does not look to move over the
airport.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A "dirty" upper level ridge is building over Southcentral this
morning as high and mid level clouds stream in from the southwest.
Rather quiet weather will persist through tonight with the
exception of some localized upslope enhanced rain/snow along the
Alaska Range and toward the Parks Highway north of Talkeetna.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough moving in southwest flow aloft
will quickly lift toward the Gulf Coast Saturday night and Sunday
morning, bringing rain to Kodiak Island before the rain
overspreads most of Southcentral (with the exception being the
interior of the Copper Basin) with a brief shot (3-6 hours) of
light rain. There will be a low level cross-barrier flow
component, but this will only act in decreasing total rainfall
amounts for inland locales, but will not be enough to completely
dry out locations west of the Chugach/Talkeetna Mountains. Snow
levels along the Chugach Mountains and Talkeetna Mountains may
drop as low as 2000 feet, but no significant snow accumulations
are anticipated.

The first system clears through Sunday evening before another warm
front right on the heels of the first moves in Sunday night and
Monday morning with more rain. This system will have more moisture
associated with it so precipitation mounts are expected to be
slightly higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A progressive pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The
radar at Bethel is still active this morning. The shortwave
responsible for this activity will continue to push inland today
with the activity creeping to the north as time elapses. With the
ridge axis to the east and a low to the west, widespread southwest
flow is anticipated over the area. The latest PWATs from satellite
imagery depict a deep fetch of moisture that spans from Bethel
into the North Pacific. A series of lows from the Bering and
North Pacific will push northward into the region bringing more
precipitation and warm air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The synoptic pattern features a frontal boundary bisecting the
the Central Aleutians. On the 1000-850 mb thickness, there is a
thermal ridge associated with the occluded front moving into the
southwest and spans from the eastern Bering to the central
Aleutians. A second system will enter the domain from the North
Pacific Saturday, bringing more rain to the area and gusty winds
to much of the Aleutian Chain and Southern Bering this weekend. A
tight concentric pressure gradient will develop Sunday night
resulting in gales in multiple zones and rough seas. The strong
winds will materialize both north and south of the Aleutian chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The warmer pattern will continue through the weekend as broad
southwest flow remains focused over the southern mainland between
the Bering Sea trough and a stout northeast Pacific ridge. Friday
night into Saturday will also bring a break in precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska as high pressure briefly builds into the
central Gulf behind the departing system. Widespread rain will
then return to the area on Sunday as the next North Pacific low
moves into the eastern Bering accompanied by a front over the
Gulf. This will provide a reinforcing shot of warm air, with the
heaviest rain focused along the north Gulf coast through Monday
morning before that system also departs to the north.

There is lower confidence in how the pattern unfolds going into
the middle of the week as models continue to struggle with the
evolution of high pressure building into the Bering and western
Alaska behind the departing trough. The GFS/GEM both eventually
develop a closed high that drifts well to the north into the
Chukchi Sea. This would allow another trough to undercut the
ridge and move back into southern Alaska, keeping a chance of rain
in the forecast through the middle of the week. Meanwhile,
European guidance depicts a much more coherent blocking ridge
over the western mainland, which would keep most of the area dry
through much of the week in a weak offshore flow regime. Given
the uncertainty, the current forecast attempts to split the
difference in keeping a chance of rain over the southern mainland
into the middle of next week while gradually trending temperatures
down closer to seasonal normal values.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...130 131 155 170 172 173 175 176 177 178 179
				 411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...JOE