Gale Warning 487, NWS Anchorage, AK

423 
FZAK62 PAFC 282257
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291245-
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1000 mb low at 55N 172W moves to 58N 173W at 1002 mb Sat night
and dissipates Sun morning. A 983 mb low at 44N 175W moves to 50N
170W at 974 mb Sun afternoon and then moves to 59N 165W at 1001 
mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
257 PM AKDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

657 
FZAK62 PAFC 291127
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300115-
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 mb low at 46N 172W will move to 55N 168W at 990 mb by Sun
night and then to 59N 164W at 1002 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

389 
FZAK62 PAFC 291506 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300015-
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 mb low at 46N 172W will move to 55N 168W at 990 mb by Sun
night and then to 59N 164W at 1002 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-300015-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300015-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300015-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300015-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
706 AM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

187 
FZAK62 PAFC 292301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301245-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb low at 51N 170W moves to 60N 162W at 1002 mb Mon
afternoon and then moves inland and dissipates by Tue afternoon.
A front enters the western Bering Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-301245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas
8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
301 PM AKDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK62 PAFC 301129
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310145-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 mb low at 56N 167W moves to 59N 164W at 997 mb this 
afternoon and then moves inland and dissipates by Tue afternoon. 
A front enters the western Bering Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 6 to 11 ft in
the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 AM AKDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Fri Oct 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A long-wave trough is centered over the Bering Sea, but extends
northeastward across all of Alaska. A short-wave is digging down
the back side of this trough across the northwest Pacific, causing
the upper jet to lift northward toward mainland Alaska. A series
of weak surface lows are embedded within the trough, with a triple
point and trailing cold front tracking eastward across the south-
central Bering and central Aleutians. A couple short-waves
downstream of this are tracking across Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska today bringing some light precip to the region. Most areas
have warmed enough to produce rain. However, the northern reaches
of the Susitna Valley and northeastern Copper River Basin remain
just cold enough to produce snow or mixed precip.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model spread continues to be fairly large with the two lows forming
over the north-central Pacific and moving up to the Bering Sea
this weekend. They do all come together with a single deep low
centered along the central Aleutians Sunday afternoon. Thus,
differences are focused right near the low center with good
agreement over the rest of the forecast area. With increasing
confidence in the depth of the low, we have trended stronger with
the winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions appear favorable for localized fog formation
tonight, with low level moisture left from this morning's rain,
mostly clear skies, and upper level high pressure building
overhead. However, a weak Turnagain wind will persist over the
northern Inlet. Thus, if fog does form it may stay away from the
terminal which is why the TAF is showing the VCFG in it.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak high pressure moving into the area from the south will
provide for a break in the active weather that has moved through
the area over the past few days. This high pressure will bring
diminishing winds and clearing skies from west-east over the
course of this evening, leaving only the potential for patchy
fog/stratus to the Cook Inlet region as the primary forecast
concern in its wake. Saturday should be a fairly quiet and
pleasant day in most areas with partly sunny skies and slightly
above normal temperatures. However, this break in the weather is
not expected to persist much longer. Beginning Saturday evening,
gale force winds and rain is expected to move into Kodiak Island,
which will then spread into the North Gulf Coast on Sunday. This
will also bring strong cross barrier flow and gap winds along
Turnagain Arm, which should provide for enough downsloping over
Southcentral to prevent much of the rain from reaching the ground.
An active pattern with persistent southwest flow aloft will then
bring another weak low into the Western Gulf quickly behind the
first. This low is not only expected to bring another round of
rain throughout the Gulf Coast region, but with weaker cross-
barrier flow rainfall is expected to spread throughout most of
Southcentral to end the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showery conditions have tapered off briefly over the southern
Mainland as a shortwave ridge builds in behind the departing low.
However, precipitation is expected to pick back up early this
evening and persist through Saturday, with persistent widespread
southerly flow over the area and an upper level wave tracking
inland from the eastern Bering tonight. Unsettled weather will
continue through the weekend as a series of lows over the Bering
and North Pacific push north into the region bringing more
precipitation and above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The longwave pattern features an upper level trough stretching
over much of the Bering and western/central Aleutians, with a
frontal boundary at the surface tracking through the eastern
Aleutians/Bering and Alaska Peninsula tonight. A thermal ridge
will build over the eastern Aleutians/Bering this evening
resulting in temperatures warming above normal for late October. A
second system will enter the domain from the north Pacific
Saturday, not only keeping the warming trend alive and bringing
more rain to the area, but also bringing gusty winds to much of
the Aleutians Chain and Southern Bering through Saturday night.

Our focus then shifts to a much stronger north Pacific system,
deepening as it tracks northward into the central/eastern
Aleutians by Sunday afternoon. Model guidance is beginning to lock
in on a solution regarding this system, with a few differences
that effect the timing and strength of the impactful winds and
increased precipitation. Currently, the strongest core of winds
are expected to push into the coastal waters just south of Dutch
Harbor, and over the eastern/central Bering and Pribilof Islands
starting Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The warmer pattern will continue through the weekend as broad
southwest flow remains focused over the southern mainland between
the Bering Sea trough and a stout northeast Pacific ridge. Friday
night into Saturday will also bring a break in precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska as high pressure briefly builds into the
central Gulf behind the departing system. Widespread rain will
then return to the area on Sunday as the next North Pacific low
moves into the eastern Bering accompanied by a front over the
Gulf. This will provide a reinforcing shot of warm air, with the
heaviest rain focused along the north Gulf coast through Monday
morning before that system also departs to the north.

There is lower confidence in how the pattern unfolds going into
the middle of the week as models continue to struggle with the
evolution of high pressure building into the Bering and western
Alaska behind the departing trough. The GFS/GEM both eventually
develop a closed high that drifts well to the north into the
Chukchi Sea. This would allow another trough to undercut the
ridge and move back into southern Alaska, keeping a chance of rain
in the forecast through the middle of the week. Meanwhile,
European guidance depicts a much more coherent blocking ridge
over the western mainland, which would keep most of the area dry
through much of the week in a weak offshore flow regime. Given
the uncertainty, the current forecast attempts to split the
difference in keeping a chance of rain over the southern mainland
into the middle of next week while gradually trending temperatures
down closer to seasonal normal values.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 131 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JOE