Small Craft Advisory 753, NWS Anchorage, AK

505 
FZAK51 PAFC 062303
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071200-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A trough of low pressure along the northern Gulf coast will weaken
through Sat morning. A front will move into the southwestern Gulf
Sat morning and will move to the eastern Gulf Sun morning. The
associated 988 mb Aleutian low enters the western Gulf Sat night 
65 nm south of Homer and then moves to 30 nm southwest of Cordova 
Sun afternoon at 990 mb.

$$

PKZ119-071200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071200-
Resurrection Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071200-
Prince William Sound-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071200-
Port Valdez-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071200-
Valdez Narrows-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071200-
Valdez Arm-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071200-
Passage Canal-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071200-
Barren Islands East-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft building to 24 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071200-
Chiniak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
after midnight.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071200-
Marmot Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071200-
Shelikof Strait-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071200-
Kachemak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT Thu Oct 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A storm force low near the Kuskokwim Delta coast and its leading
front are the dominate features. Weak cold advection and the
proximity of the occluded wrap on the southern periphery of the
low produced storm force winds across the central and eastern
Bering Sea. Saint Paul airport reported gusts to 65 kt (75 mph).
The trailing front extends southeast across the western mainland
to a rapidly eastward moving low south of the Kenai Pen. Rain
associated with these features was evident across much of
Southcentral. Conditions were a little more showery out west.
Gales were evident across the Gulf waters. Gap flows across
Southcentral were in the process of reversing as the low moved
east across the northern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in great agreement with the current storm and its
associated frontal trough. However, models diverge on the next
developing low heading toward the AK Pen Friday and Saturday.
Model tracks are similar, however timing is an issue. This is
reasonable considering the strength of the upper jet. The ECMWF is
the fastest with the GFS the slowest. The NAM seemed like a good
middle ground and was used in part for the afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty southeast winds will be ending tonight. Conditions should
be generally VFR, although on the low side through tonight. There
is a possibility that light winds and any clearing overnight could
further drop the ceiling and or visibilities but this does not
look overly likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low circulation is well depicted on the Middleton Island
radar. More rain is across southcentral tonight with the heftiest
accumulations expected from Whittier to Cordova. The shortwave
trough will push from the Gulf of Alaska northeastward and inland
overnight. A secondary low will cross from Southwest Alaska
tonight and across Cook Inlet Friday morning. Troughing coupled
with a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf Coast will
result in gusty offshore flow and gap winds. The precipitation
shield from the next frontal system will push into Kodiak Island
Saturday evening with moist advection heading northeastward as
the weekend unfolds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong Bering low has moved into Southwest Alaska this
afternoon. The center of the low is near Bethel, and will continue
to move inland and weaken overnight as the center struggles first
to cross the Kuskokwim Mountains in the next few hours, and then
the Alaska Range later on tonight. Despite the weakening, winds
and storm surge are ongoing across much of the coast from Goodnews
Bay northward through Kipnuk. This includes Kuskokwim Bay, where
flooding has been reported already with the storm. The winds and
surge will gradually abate overnight.

The next low tracking from the north Pacific northward along the
Alaska Peninsula will begin spreading rain through Bristol Bay
Saturday afternoon and spread north along the Alaska Range through
the overnight hours. Cooler air on the northwestern edge of the
low may be just cold enough Sunday morning for a light snow or
rain/snow mix over inland areas of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
interior Bristol Bay, but warm ground temperatures and the fast
movement of the low should preclude accumulations from getting
much above an inch. However, the model spread with this storm is
still large, so there is a chance more could be seen. Stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Conditions across the eastern Bering are gradually improving this
afternoon as the strong low moves further inland into mainland
Alaska. The strong winds will continue to gale force overnight
through the eastern Bering, and continue to diminish during the
day Friday. The next north Pacific low will begin to impact the
central Aleutians late Friday afternoon and quickly move through
the eastern Aleutians by Saturday afternoon, intensifying as it
does so. Thus, another round of gales through Bristol Bay and the
waters on both sides of the Alaska Peninsula is expected during
the day Saturday. Elsewhere, a weak low will traverse the northern
Bering Friday through Saturday morning, but nothing impactful is
expected from it.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid and long term forecast starts off with the low near the
Alaska Peninsula Saturday evening continuing its track towards the
northern Gulf of Alaska. It looks to bring rain and winds to much
of southern Alaska through Sunday. Out west, a front will track
across the Bering Sunday and Monday, eventually bringing more rain
to southwest Alaska.

On Tuesday, the models really start to struggle with a low
heading towards the western Bering. Between the different
deterministic solutions and ensembles there is a wide range of
outputs for both placement and intensity of this low.
Additionally they are struggling with how strong to build in the
ridge ahead of this system. Because of the inconsistent guidance,
the ensembles were preferred for much of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Coastal Flood Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 130-138 150-172 179-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1111 PM AKDT THU OCT 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ST. PAUL                57.21N 170.22W
10/05/2017  M75 MPH                             AK   ASOS

&&

RANDERSO