Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2017

Gale Warning 470, NWS Anchorage, AK

October 6, 2017

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 6, 2017, 3:28 PM AKDT. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 6, 2017, 3:28 PM AKDT (23:28 UTC)
Expired
Oct 9, 2017, 3:39 AM AKDT
In force
60 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

856 
FZAK62 PAFC 062328
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071315-
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1015 mb low at 49N 175W will strengthen to 987 mb at 55N 163W 
Sat afternoon. The low moves inland near 59N 157W Sat night at 985
mb then moves into the western Gulf by Sun morning. A strong front 
associated with a Kamchatka low moves into the western Bering Sun 
afternoon then moves to the central Bering Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 PM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
396 
FZAK62 PAFC 071156
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080030-
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1006 mb low at 54N 168W will move to 58N 158W at 986 mb this
evening then move into the northern Gulf by Sun morning. A front 
associated with a Kamchatka low will move into the western Bering
by Sun morning moving into the eastern Bering by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-080030-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 16 to 22
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 8 to 16 ft
in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080030-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$
534 
FZAK62 PAFC 072310
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081315-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 mb low at 56N 163W moves to 61N 147W at 991 mb Sun afternoon
then moves inland. The associated front pushes across the Alaska
Peninsula into the Gulf tonight. A strong front moves across the
western and central Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 16 ft building to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in
the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 PM AKDT Sat Oct 7 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$
133 
FZAK62 PAFC 081155
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090045-
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 mb low near 57N 165E will strengthen to 975 mb as it moves 
to 61N 174E late tonight and then begin to weaken to 983 mb as it 
moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Mon morning. The associated front 
will move across the northern Bering Sea today and Mon. 

$$

PKZ411-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building
to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$
281 
FZAK62 PAFC 082319
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091400-
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
High pressure builds across the southern Bering through Tue 
morning. A 974 mb Northern Kamchatka low moves to 68N 167W at 1002
mb by Tue afternoon. A 1000 mb North Pacific low slips to 52N 
169E at 984 mb Tue afternoon. The associated front pushes over the
Western Aleutians by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 20 ft subsiding to 11 to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt
after midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 18 ft subsiding to 11 to 15 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 PM AKDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$
048 
FZAK62 PAFC 091139
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100100-
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A frontal boundary across the northern Bering Sea will move near
Saint Lawrence Island by Tue morning. A 988 mb low will move to
52N 172E Tue afternoon and strengthen to 968 mb as it moves to 56N
173E late Tue night. The associated front will move from the
western Bering Sea to eastern Bering Sea Tue afternoon and evening.

$$

PKZ411-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
339 AM AKDT Mon Oct 9 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 6, 4:56 AM AKDT, 10 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 4:56 AM AKDT, 10 hours 32 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Fri Oct 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The weakening surface low over the southwest interior continues
to pull in gusty west to northwest flow over the southwest
Mainland and Alaska Peninsula, with weak cold air advection along
the southwest coast. Precipitation associated with this feature
continues to taper off over the southwest Mainland, and spread
into the Cook Inlet and Western Gulf regions as depicted by recent
radar imagery and observations.

The large scale features consist of a broad upper level trough
extending through much of the Mainland and into the Gulf, flat
ridging over much of the Bering and Aleutians, and an eastward
moving trough over the Kamchatka Peninsula. At the base of this
far western trough, the right entrance region of a 140 kt upper-
level jet is helping to spin up the next surface low over the
north Pacific. This system will be the primary weather-maker for
the eastern half of the Aleutians/Bering and southern Mainland
over the next few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in very good agreement through Saturday afternoon.
This is when models begin to struggle with the timing and track of
the north Pacific low impacting the eastern half of the
Aleutians/Bering, and southern Mainland over the weekend. Model
tracks are fairly similar, with the model solutions split between
tracking the low center either north or south of the Alaska
Peninsula. However, timing remains the bigger issue, which is
reasonable considering the strength of the upper jet. The Canadian
and NAM solution which supports a track south of the Alaska
Peninsula and middle ground timing of the system, was the
preferred solution for this feature. Whereas the ECMWF remained
the faster outlier, and the GFS remained the slowest solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions are expected to remain VFR this morning, although on
the low side. Conditions will gradually improve through out the
day as the showery conditions taper off over the Anchorage bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The initial surface low is now tracking onshore across the
northeastern Gulf Coast in the vicinity of Yakutat early this
morning. A trailing trough and accompanying parent upper level low
will track from Southwest Alaska into the northern Gulf later this
morning, bringing the potential for isolated thunderstorms to the
waters today. Offshore northwesterly gap winds will strengthen
this afternoon through Saturday morning as surface troughing
persists in the northern Gulf and ridging builds briefly inland.
The next frontal system will approach the southwestern Gulf
Saturday afternoon and then track north through the western Gulf
Saturday night, and then into the northern Gulf and south central
Alaska Sunday morning. While there remains model uncertainty
regard the track of this low, it looks to have the potential to
bring strong winds, particularity the west to northwesterlies
following it.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
One low will exit the area today leaving gusty northwest winds in
its wake while the next system moves up from the North Pacific.
The tail end of our massive Bering storm is starting to clear SW
AK. Winds have become almost entirely north to west across the
area. The duration of the westerly winds with this system has led
to fully arisen seas making it much of the way to the coastline.
So while the worst has passed, we still expect some fairly rough
surf conditions this morning, especially through Bristol Bay.
Winds and showers should diminish through the day. The exception
to that is across the YK Delta where some energy from the Bering
Strait caught up in the NW flow will continue to keep things wet.
Most places will start out the day dry on Saturday with slightly
cooler temperatures, especially where skies break a bit more. But
the next system will push another round of rain and wind into the
Alaska Peninsula by early Sat afternoon. The system will continue
to track northeast quickly bringing rain and gusty east to
southeast winds to all of Bristol Bay by late Sat evening. This
system will be much more compact than the current one. So as it
slides east early Sunday, there is a good chance it will pull down
some colder air. This could allow snow levels to drop to the
surface in part of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. So we can't rule
out a dusting of snow for those areas as we head towards mid-
October.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
A much quieter day is on tap for today compared to the past
couple of days. Weak ridging will slide in and allow the gale
force winds (and higher seas) over the Eastern Bering to diminish
this afternoon. Then attention shifts to one low from the North
Pacific late tonight-Sat, and another moving into the Western
Bering on Sun. The first low will swing winds around out of the
east-northeast for parts of the Eastern Aleutians early Sat. Then
it start to strengthen some by later Sat with some gales expected
on its south and west flanks. Models are starting to show signs
that this system could be a bit stronger, so we will be monitoring
for the potential for storm-force winds. After this, another
fairly large and strong (though not quite as strong as this
week's) will move into the Western Bering. This will bring another
large swath of gale-force winds and higher seas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid and long term forecast starts off with the low near the
Alaska Peninsula Saturday evening continuing its track towards the
north Gulf. It looks to bring rain and winds to much of southern
Alaska through Sunday. Out west, a front will track across the
Bering Sunday and Monday, eventually bringing more rain to
southwest Alaska.

On Tuesday, the models really start to struggle with a low
heading towards the western Bering. Between the different
deterministic solutions and ensembles there is a wide range of
outputs for both placement and intensity of this low.
Additionally they are struggling with how strong to build in the
ridge ahead of this system. Because of the inconsistent guidance,
the ensembles were preferred for much of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 130-132 136-138 150 155 160 165 172 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 6, 3:50 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC11 hr
Oct 6, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC35 hr
Oct 6, 3:03 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC61 hr
Oct 6, 3:03 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC49 hr
Oct 6, 3:38 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC4 days
Oct 6, 3:38 PM AKDTStorm WarningAFC36 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2017Every gale warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.