Small Craft Advisory 734, NWS Anchorage, AK

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 302344
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011300-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will persist over most of the Gulf of Alaska through 
Sun afternoon. A storm force front moves into the Southern Gulf by 
Sun night and reaches the north Gulf coast by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
Resurrection Bay-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
Prince William Sound-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
Port Valdez-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
Valdez Narrows-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
Valdez Arm-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
Passage Canal-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
Barren Islands East-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 10 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. N of Dangerous Cape, 
seas 4 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
Chiniak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
Marmot Bay-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
Shelikof Strait-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. N of Cape
Kuliak...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
18 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
Kachemak Bay-
344 PM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weakening 1005 mb low sits off the east coast of Kodiak Island
this morning spreading showers across virtually all of
Southcentral Alaska. A distinct line of clouds on satellite
imagery separates the showery conditions over Southcentral from
mostly clear (and cool) conditions over Southwest Alaska. This
line represents the leading edge of the strong shortwave ridging
that is in place over the Bering Sea. Clearing skies will be
moving slowly eastward through the afternoon and evening
hours...ending the showers around Southcentral and ushering in
cooler temperatures for tonight and likely the first near-
freezing temperatures of the season at many places.

West of the Alaska Range...skies are already most clear and gusty
north winds are accompanying the seasonably cool airmass that is
moving into the area. The airmass under the large high pressure
over the Bering is still warm enough to result in stable air and
significant areas of fog and stratus across much of the area. In
the furthest west portions of the Aleutians, a gale-force front is
trying to make slow progress eastward, but has not even made it to
Shemya yet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in pretty decent agreement, with the most
significant area of uncertainty pertaining to the north Pacific
low that moves up into the AKPEN and into Southwest Alaska in the
Sunday/Monday time period. Models are converging on a position,
but intensity is still a bit of a question mark, with the GFS much
stronger/deeper than the NAM/ECMWF solutions. A blended solution
that slowly trends winds up toward 40 knots around Kodiak Island
was the chosen path today. It's worth noting that the Canadian
Global (GEM) solution is still significantly different than the
other models with this feature, and was not considered during
forecast prep today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue to improve throughout the day,
with skies clearing by late this evening through Saturday. North
winds will continue throughout the period, but are not expected to
exceed 15 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A weak front is slowly working its way southeastward across the
Susitna Valley this afternoon. As the front passes this evening, a
brief isolated sprinkle or shower will be possible. Beyond that,
the skies will slowly clear overnight, though clouds may linger,
especially along the Chugach mountains. The weak winds associated
with it will have a very restricted ability to clear any of the
low-level moisture out. As such, patchy fog will be possible
along the coast of Cook Inlet and Knik Arm tonight, especially if
meaningful clearing of the upper levels results in clear skies
and temperatures fall to their dewpoints. The possible cloud
cover banked against the mountains may preclude too many 20s being
seen around the Anchorage Bowl, but widespread 30s, including the
airport's first sub-40 degree night of the fall season is still
expected. Much of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin will
drop into the 20s tonight.

A gorgeous weekend is on tap for all of Southcentral Alaska, as
seasonably cool autumnal high pressure building in from the west
and resultant offshore wind flow dries the area out. Despite some
modest cooling of the mid-levels with the advance of a cooler air
mass, much of Southcentral will easily get into the 50s for highs
on both Saturday and Sunday. Nearly all of Southcentral is
expected to have its coldest night of the fall on Saturday night
under mainly clear skies and light winds. Another beautiful sunny
day is expected on Sunday. However, by Sunday afternoon, a strong
front and associated rainfall will be encroaching on the area,
starting with Kodiak, where increasing rain and winds are expected
to close out the day. Increasing southeasterly winds out ahead of
the front will be quite gusty along the Hillside and Turnagain
Arm from Sunday evening on.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will dominate southwest Alaska into Sunday. Saturday
night as the ridge axis moves over the area and winds calm, there
will be a chance for fog formation over the Kuskokwim Delta. On
Sunday as the ridge pushes off to the east a new system will
approach the area from the south bringing stronger winds and rain
to areas around Bristol Bay by Sunday afternoon. Rain will then
spread across the rest of Southwest Alaska in the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the central Bering will keep tracking east into
Saturday before moving over Southwest Alaska. Behind the ridging
a front is moving through the western Bering that will weaken
Saturday as it moves over the central Bering. Then on Sunday a
North Pacific low will bring rain and winds to the Alaska
Peninsula with its front moving into the eastern Bering Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast period is going to be in the transitory
stages between troughs and ridges to that of zonal flow. By Sunday
evening there will be three individual storm systems that will
impact the domain. The first is an area of low pressure which will
have already moved onshore across Southwest AK, bringing a front
and rainfall to the Southcentral coast. There may be some chances
for light rain across the Anchorage area but downsloping should
reign supreme. The second of storm systems will be south of Adak
and travel towards the Pacific Northwest Coast of CONUS and
shouldn't be any threat. The last system will be from an upper
level disturbance that is dropping out of the Kamchatka region.
This low will weaken but send a weather front towards Western
Alaska by mid week. It is at that time that the upper levels
flatten out and much of the region will be in a weak flow, but wet
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 177 178 185 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...SS