Gale Warning 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

715 
FZAK61 PAFC 011154
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-020145-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 mb low at 50N 155W will strengthen to a 988 mb low near 57N
159W Mon night. The associated storm-force front moves into the 
Southern Gulf by Sun night and reaches the north Gulf coast by Mon
morning.

$$

PKZ351-020145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft building to 14 to
20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 to 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-020145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
354 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft building to 8 to 16 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

755 
FZAK61 PAFC 012342
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-021300-
342 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front pushes from the western Gulf tonight to the northern 
Gulf by Mon morning, then remains stationary through Tuesday while 
slowly dissipating. A 1009 mb low forms at 53N 144W Tue morning and 
moves to 57N 143W at 1008 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-021300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft building to 
14 to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-021300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

972 
FZAK61 PAFC 021157
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030145-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A strong front pushes from the western gulf this morning to the 
northern gulf by Mon night, then remains stationary through 
Tue while slowly dissipating. A 998 mb low at 48N 157W Mon night 
moves to 58N 149W at 1005 mb by Tue night.

$$

PKZ351-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt by late morning.
Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

325 
FZAK61 PAFC 022309
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031315-
309 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1003 mb low will form at 56N 144W Tue and move onshore near 61N 
146W at 1004 mb Wed afternoon. A 1004 mb low at 54N 153W moves to 
59N 149W at 1008 mb Wed afternoon. The associated front will move to
the North Gulf Coast Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-031315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
309 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
309 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
to 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Sat Sep 30 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern shift is underway this morning. The last vestiges of
the trough that pushed through from the Interior on Friday has all
but cleared the area riding on 110 kt upper-level jet. As we are
in the "transition period," the ridge/high pressure is starting to
build in, but the offshore flow has yet to really get going yet.
The end result is some patchy fog or low stratus in places from
Wasilla down to Kenai and over to Cordova. This lingering moisture
will have little chance to last this morning though as the
offshore gradient continues to increase and ushers in drier air.
The other weather maker across the state this morning is a gale-
force front moving into the Western Aleutians. Winds have already
gusted to 40 kts way out at Shemya. The system is also packing
enough instability (aided by a 170 kt jet) for some isolated
lightning strikes overnight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into somewhat better agreement with the pattern
for the weekend and early next week. They all concur on the
general idea of a storm-force front moving towards southern AK as
a North Pacific low tracks towards Kodiak and the Alaska
Peninsula late Sun into Mon. The NAM went from being on the slower
end of solutions Fri morning to now being on the faster end.
Thus, the GFS was relied upon a bit more for timing. As the
surface low attempts to traverse the Alaska Peninsula, some
disagreement starts to develop on exactly where the center will
go, but the general idea of wet and windy will still hold. Models
are also now keying on another intensifying low paralleling the
Aleutian Chain Sun into Mon. For now, this system looks to stay
far enough south to have little impact on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level high over southwest Alaska will slowly slide
southeast, and into the Gulf tonight. Skies will be clearing today
across Southcentral and dry conditions are expected through the
weekend for much of the mainland. A strong low pressure system
will push northward from the north Pacific on Sunday. The leading
front with this system will reach Kodiak Island Sunday afternoon,
with widespread gale force winds spreading northward through
Monday afternoon, and even some small areas of storm force winds.
An SPS has been issued for Kodiak Island to address this.
Precipitation with this front will reach the Kenai peninsula late
Sunday afternoon, and push inland Sunday night and Monday. Strong
winds will impact the marine areas, as well as Turnagain Arm and
the surrounding higher elevations. Conditions will also get quite
breezy on Monday through the Knik valley and the Copper River
valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of high pressure will continue to build east into
Southwest Alaska today bringing mostly sunny skies and above
average daytime temperatures. The ridge axis moves over the area
tonight leading to calm winds, clear skies, and quickly falling
temperatures, with most inland locations seeing below freezing
temperatures on Sunday morning. The pattern will quickly shift as
a stout low pressure system rapidly moves in from the south
bringing increased clouds, moisture, and winds to the area by
Sunday afternoon. Rain will spread from south to north across the
AKPEN and into SW Alaska through Sunday night. A low level jet
out ahead of the system will move through Sunday and Sunday night
bringing strong winds to the AKPEN with gusts upwards of 60 mph
through channeled terrain and gaps, including the Kamishak Gap and
down across Lake Iliamna.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the Central Bering will quickly be replaced today by
a front currently moving east across the Western Bering and
Aleutians. This will bring gale force winds and a line of heavy
rain. The front will weaken through the day today as it moves east
into the Central Bering. It will then stall out just west of the
Pribilofs on Sunday as it runs into the strong low pressure system
moving up from the south over SW AK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long range forecast period is going to be in the transitory
stages between troughs and ridges to that of zonal flow. By Sunday
evening there will be three individual storm systems that will
impact the domain. The first is an area of low pressure which will
have already moved onshore across Southwest AK, bringing a front
and rainfall to the Southcentral coast. There may be some chances
for light rain across the Anchorage area but downsloping should
reign supreme. The second of storm systems will be south of Adak
and travel towards the Pacific Northwest Coast of CONUS and
shouldn't be any threat. The last system will be from an upper
level disturbance that is dropping out of the Kamchatka region.
This low will weaken but send a weather front towards Western
Alaska by mid week. It is at that time that the upper levels
flatten out and much of the region will be in a weak flow, but wet
pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 177 178 185 411-413 132 138.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...SS