Small Craft Advisory 729, NWS Anchorage, AK

497 
FZAK51 PAFC 290616 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

Updated Zone 129 and Extended Forecast

Coastal Waters Forecast for 
the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak 
Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291930-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 997 mb low 100 nm northeast of Kodiak City will
stay nearly stationary and weaken to 1006 mb by Fri morning. It will
then move to 200 NM southeast of Kodiak City at 1015 mb Fri night 
before dissipating Sat.

$$

PKZ119-291930-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 15 kt out of the Copper
River Delta after midnight. Seas 4 ft..SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291930-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 15 kt out of Resurrection
Bay after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291930-
Resurrection Bay-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291930-
Prince William Sound-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291930-
Port Valdez-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291930-
Valdez Narrows-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291930-
Valdez Arm-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291930-
Passage Canal-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt towards morning. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Near Whittier...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming W in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Near Whittier...W wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2  ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291930-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291930-
Barren Islands East-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291930-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 15 kt
N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt except NW wind 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Wind N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291930-
Chiniak Bay-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291930-
Marmot Bay-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291930-
Shelikof Strait-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt...highest out of bays and passes. Seas 3 
ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt...highest out of bays and passes. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight...highest
out of bays and passes. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291930-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291930-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft 
building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft..SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-291930-
Kachemak Bay-
1016 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

137 
FZAK51 PAFC 291151
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300045-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A broad 1003 mb low 55 nm northeast of Kodiak City will move to 
230 nm southeast of Kodiak City and will weaken to 1022 mb by Sat
afternoon. High pressure will build over the Gulf through Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-300045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300045-
Resurrection Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300045-
Prince William Sound-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300045-
Port Valdez-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300045-
Valdez Narrows-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300045-
Valdez Arm-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300045-
Passage Canal-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300045-
Barren Islands East-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300045-
Chiniak Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300045-
Marmot Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300045-
Shelikof Strait-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt...strongest out of bays and passes. Seas 4 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-300045-
Kachemak Bay-
351 AM AKDT Fri Sep 29 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low near Kodiak continues to dominate the pattern.
Its associated warm occlusion that was formerly over the Gulf of
AK is now aligned along the AK Range into the Aleutian Range. It
continues to push some showers across the Susitna Valley and parts
of the Cook Inlet, but the bulk of the steady precipitation has
been relegated to the North Gulf Coast. A modest push of pressure
rises behind the front has allowed for some gusty southeast winds
through the typical gaps (Portage/Whittier, Turnagain Arm, etc.)
overnight. Meanwhile, a colder trough is dropping in from the
Arctic over the northern half of the state. This is working in
tandem with a ridge over the western Bering to reinforce northerly
flow across much of the Bering and just about all of SW AK. This
is leading to some gusty winds through the Alaska Peninsula and
also dragging down some low stratus from the Bering Strait into
the YK-Delta. The jet activity is really only working to support
the Arctic trough to our north and the Bering ridge way out west.
Otherwise, the subtropical jet continues to bring steady rain to
Southeast AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fair agreement this morning. The most notable
difference is how far south they dig the energy and associated
cold air from the Arctic Trough into the weekend. The EC (and to
some extent the GEM) were the most bullish with this feature on
Wed. However, the 00z run overnight trended more towards the
American models which advertise not much more than a glancing blow
along the AK Range and the Copper River Basin. The American models
were preferred with this package. The NAM Nest and abundant hand
edits were used in trying to depict the various local effect winds
across South Central for today. Forecast confidence is moderate to
high heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Winds are going to be very tricky today. The brief push of
southeasterly flow overnight should be over as the "down-Inlet"
gradient takes over at the surface. However, low-level wind shear
will remain probable as southeast flow continues just off the
surface. Another piece of energy should bring southeast winds back
into the airport off the Turnagain Arm for a period this afternoon
and evening. So whether it is gusty at the surface or just above,
expect some bumpy conditions at and around the terminal today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The very slowly weakening Gulf low located just east of Kodiak
Island will be the primary driver of gusty gap winds throughout
the Gulf Coast this morning. Overnight this low produced a barrier
jet that brought gale-force gusts from the North Gulf into Prince
William Sound and Passage Canal, all of which will be diminishing
as the morning progresses. Strong gap winds will also continue to
blow through Portage Valley and the Turnagain for much of the
morning. Forecast confidence further west over the Anchorage Bowl
is however much less, especially this morning as a weak down-
inlet should cause the Turnagain wind the fade in and out into
south and west Anchorage. By this afternoon the models are in
reasonable agreement that the down-inlet flow will weaken enough
to bring these winds into the Anchorage Bowl, along with gusty
winds out of the Knik River and Copper River Valleys. By this
evening the Gulf low should weaken enough to allow most of the gap
winds diminish into Friday.

The second impact from this low will be with rain showers, which
should mainly occur along the North Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound as strong cross barrier flow will limit any showers on the
lee side of the Chugach Mountains. A better chance of rain for
Southcentral will come Friday evening, after the cross barrier
flow has weakened and a trough begins to approach the area from
the Interior. The good news is that there is very good agreement
that this trough will quickly move though the area, and allow for
high pressure to move into most of Southcentral for the Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain continues to move along and just west of the Alaska/Aleutian
Ranges this morning in association with an upper level deformation
zone connected to a low over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature will
remain in place through Thursday night before weakening and
falling apart. Otherwise, the remainder of the region will remain
under the influence of dominate and dry northerly flow. Some low
clouds off the Bering Strait will drift over the Kuskokwim Delta,
otherwise expect quiescent and fair conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the western Bering will slowly track east into the
central Bering on Friday, extending over southwest Alaska as
well. This will keep northerly flow for most locations in the
Bering and Aleutians before a stronger gale force front moves over
the Western Bering Sea and Aleutians Friday and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It looks like a sunny weekend is on tap for much of the Alaska
mainland this weekend as high pressure builds across southern
Alaska from the eastern Bering Sea. In the meantime, a pattern
change will begin to take hold across the western Bering Sea as
the arctic jet begins to strengthen as cold air builds over
eastern Russia. A the jet strengthens, the upper level pattern
will become more "zonal" and allow for multiple disturbances to
track off the coast of Russia and into the Bering Sea and
ultimately into Southwest Alaska. This pattern change should also
keep the subtropical jet well south of Alaska and Alaskan waters
which means that the warm and moist air that brought rainfall much
of the summer/fall will now be cut off from Alaska. Models are
struggling with timing, placement and intensity of features moving
off the coast of Russia but a very active pattern looks likely by
Monday of next week. Looking back at the nice weekend,
temperatures will likely be near or below freezing across most
inland locations while high temperatures climb into the upper 40s
to upper 50s.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MC