Gale Warning 458, NWS Anchorage, AK

408 
FZAK52 PAFC 282230
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291100-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A ridge of high pressure in the western Aleutians will move to 
the eastern Bering by Fri night. A front associated with a 
Kamchatka low will move into the western Bering Fri afternoon 
through Sat.

$$

PKZ150-291100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291100-
Bristol Bay-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291100-
Unalaska Bay-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291100-
Adak to Kiska-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291100-
Kiska to Attu-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-291100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
230 PM AKDT Thu Sep 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT Wed Sep 27 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low south of Kodiak is cut off from the trough in
the Arctic which has allowed some upper level ridging over the
interior of the state. Zonal flow is over the Bering Sea with an
amplifying ridge near Kamchatka. The jet stream remains running
well south of the Aleutians from west to east and then rotating
around the southern periphery of the low into Southeast Alaska.
The main surface low is moving northward toward Kodiak Island and
will remain just east of the Island into Friday.
A surface ridge in the western Bering Sea and over the western
Aleutians will edge eastward the next few days keeping the
northerly flow over most of the Bering Sea for a few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
On the synoptic scale, the models are in good agreement into the
weekend and then some significant differences begin to emerge.
One short term detail that will have an effect of the western part
of the Gulf, including Kodiak Island, is the structure of the low
moving into the area. The GFS is consolidating the energy into
one distinct center with the ECMWF showing a more elongated
center. The ECMWF solution is supported by the NAM which shows a
two distinct centers for the low that match the overall shape the
ECMWF is showing. It is likely that the NAM is the most correct
solution with the resolution difference being the reason the EC is
elongated and not with two distinct centers. Where this may have
an impact on the Kodiak area is with the winds around the low and
whether or not there will be a short break in the rain overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist even with a little rain moving
into the area by this evening. Winds should turn southeast
Thursday afternoon and may get a bit gusty at that time as well.
It looks like the airport will be right on the edge of the higher
gust area as they come out of Turnagain Arm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With an occluded front in the Gulf of Alaska, a wet pattern is on
tap for this evening over Southcentral Alaska. Both the Kenai and
Middleton Island radars are pinging into precipitation, with the
best and most uniform bands materializing over Prince William
Sound. An inverted trough will barrel through the Kenai Peninsula
tonight increasing the pressure gradient forces over the region,
resulting in gusty winds through Turnagain Arm, the Knik River
Valley, and Copper River areas through Thursday. From this event
the lion's share of the QPF is expect east and southeast of
Anchorage where the moisture will get wrung out by the Chugach
Range. As time elapses, the surface low will slowly weaken and
drift southeastward which will give way to a drying trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry northerly flow will dominate much of southwest Alaska through
Friday. The exception will be a deformation zone forming over the
Aleutian and Alaska Ranges that will bring rain into Friday.
Ridging looks to build in over southwest Alaska also on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the western Bering will slowly track east into the
central Bering on Friday, extending over southwest Alaska as
well. This will keep northerly flow for most locations in the
Bering and Aleutians until the ridge axis moves overhead resulting
in light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It looks like a sunny weekend is on tap for much of the Alaska
mainland this weekend as high pressure builds across southern
Alaska from the eastern Bering Sea. In the meantime, a pattern
change will begin to take hold across the western Bering Sea as
the arctic jet begins to strengthen as cold air builds over
eastern Russia. A the jet strengthens, the upper level pattern
will become more "zonal" and allow for multiple disturbances to
track off the coast of Russia and into the Bering Sea and
ultimately into Southwest Alaska. This pattern change should also
keep the subtropical jet well south of Alaska and Alaskan waters
which means that the warm and moist air that brought rainfall much
of the summer/fall will now be cut off from Alaska. Models are
struggling with timing, placement and intensity of features moving
off the coast of Russia but a very active pattern looks likely by
Monday of next week. Looking back at the nice weekend,
temperatures will likely be near or below freezing across most
inland locations while high temperatures climb into the upper 40s
to upper 50s.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MC