Small Craft Advisory 709, NWS Anchorage, AK

059 
FZAK52 PAFC 232250
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-241130-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low near King Salmon will move to 50 nm east of Kipnuk 
late tonight then to 60 nm south of Cape Newenham Sun afternoon 
at 994 mb. This low will then move to 50 nm north of Cold Bay Mon
afternoon at 1001 mb.

$$

PKZ150-241130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-241130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-241130-
Bristol Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-241130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-241130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-241130-
Unalaska Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-241130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-241130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-241130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-241130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-241130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ177-241130-
Adak to Kiska-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-241130-
Kiska to Attu-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-241130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-241130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-241130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-241130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low is centered over Norton Sound with a sharp
trough digging south over the Alaska Peninsula. The jet stream is
running well south of the Aleutian Islands but then turns
northeast over the Gulf of Alaska then into Southeast Alaska. At
the surface there is an elongated low stretching from south of the
Alaska Peninsula northeast through the Bristol Bay region and
into the Interior. Along and Southeast of this low is where there
is good lifting and southwest flow producing the widespread rain
in south central Alaska and parts of the southwest mainland of
Alaska. High pressure in the western Bering Sea is producing some
gusty northerly winds over much of the Bering Sea with embedded
showers from the colder air aloft in this flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement overall. There is some
discrepancy in the way the complex low over the state this
weekend will act on its southern end. The GFS is a bit of an
outlier with a center just north of the tip of the Alaska
Peninsula while the NAM, GEM, and ECWMF all keep it near the far
eastern end of Bristol Bay by Monday morning. Forecasts reflect
the solution with the low in eastern Bristol Bay that the three
models are showing.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The lower ceilings should improve this evening as winds
switch from a northerly direction to the southeast. The southeast
winds are expected to become gusty for awhile through the evening
but then become light again sometime after midnight. This brings
in the potential for some lower ceilings again but at this time it
looks like the winds a little bit above the surface will be
enough to keep the air mixed enough to diminish the potential of fog
or stratus. However, this also will increase the chances of there
being some low level wind shear with light surface winds and
stronger southeast winds by the 2000 ft level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level shortwave continues to track from the south to
north through the south central Alaska region before exiting to
the north by this evening. This feature continues to bring
widespread rain throughout our AOR with the heaviest precipitation
along the northern coastal communities tonight. While, upstream
the next shortwave rotates around the base of the longwave trough
before tracking just south of Kodiak Island by late Saturday
afternoon. This synoptic feature is reflected at the surface as a
weak 991 mb low pressure system tracking near the east side of
Kodiak Island. As this low tracks north a barrier jet develops
along the North Gulf Coast by Saturday evening resulting in
easterly gale force winds. This brings another round of moderate
to heavy precipitation to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern
coastal communities through the weekend. Therefore, the Flood
Warning will remain in effect through Monday with continued high
water levels on Kenai Lake and the Kenai River aided by the
release of water from the Snow glacier dammed lake. Meanwhile, as
the southeasterly to easterly winds strengthen during Saturday,
look for downsloping conditions to begin for the Anchorage Bowl and
the upper Western Kenai Peninsula area. This produces drier
conditions for the aforementioned region due to the cross barrier
flow. By Sunday the low pressure system moves over the eastern
Kenai Peninsula with the associated frontal boundary falling
apart as it moves inland. Overall the south central Alaska region
will have wet conditions with normal fall temperatures through
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Remnants of an old front stretch across an area from Bristol Bay
to the Alaska Range. This is bringing rain to the area that will
be reinforced by a low heading towards the Alaska Peninsula
tonight. This low will also cause rain to spread across the rest
of southwest Alaska that will additionally be aided by an upper
level low near the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A new surface low will
then develop Saturday night near the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
track towards Bristol Bay on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will dominate the western Bering Sea through the
weekend bringing northerly winds with minimal rain to the majority
of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. The exception will be the
eastern Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula with the weakening front
over the Peninsula this evening and the low that will track
through the eastern Bering Sea Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Sunday evening, with an
upper level low tracking into the eastern Bering Sea and Bristol
Bay area, then crossing the Alaska Peninsula and heading back into
the north Pacific Tuesday. Model guidance struggles with this
feature as it progresses into the later part of next week. Some
solutions bring the upper low into the Panhandle by the end of
next week, where others curve it into the western Gulf of Alaska as
early as Thursday afternoon. As can be expected, the surface
features are also showing a decent spread in their solutions,
keeping lower confidence in the forecast for this time frame. What
can be said with some certainty is that there could be a window
of slightly drier conditions during the early part of next week.
Rain will then put an end to these briefly drier conditions by
mid-week, as the north Pacific system pushes a front into
south central Alaska and parts of the southwest mainland through
the end of the week.

The potential for gusty winds developing along the Gulf of Alaska coast
and Cook Inlet region will also largely depend on which model
solution pans out. Depending on the track of the surface low from
the north Pacific and into the Gulf mid-week, there is some
potential that we can see an increase of gusty northeasterly winds
over the Cook Inlet and Shelikof strait areas, and/or gusty
easterly winds along the North Gulf Coast.

Further west, High pressure will try to build into the Western
Bering Sea and Aleutians through the end of next week when it
starts getting shoved east by a trough tracking in from the west.
Models are loosely showing the track of this next front pushing
into the western Aleutians by the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121 125.
MARINE...Gale 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP