Gale Warning 454, NWS Anchorage, AK

310 
FZAK51 PAFC 231937 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Updated zone 129

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240315-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 mb low 50 nm west of Chirikof Island moves to 50 nm east of
the Barren Islands at 990 mb late Sat night...then moves into the
Kenai Peninsula Sun. An associated front over the central Gulf 
moves to the northern Gulf by Sat evening...then dissipates as 
it moves inland.

$$

PKZ119-240315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
10 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming Variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240315-
Resurrection Bay-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.  Rain
showers. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240315-
Prince William Sound-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft  after
midnight. Rain showers. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240315-
Port Valdez-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.  Patchy fog.
Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240315-
Valdez Narrows-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240315-
Valdez Arm-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240315-
Passage Canal-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
2 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240315-
Barren Islands East-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240315-
Chiniak Bay-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240315-
Marmot Bay-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.  Seas
4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240315-
Shelikof Strait-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming Variable 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 25 kt. At the N end of the 
strait...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt toward morning. Seas
5 ft.  Rain. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 9 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240315-
Kachemak Bay-
1137 AM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable  less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

109 
FZAK51 PAFC 232250
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241200-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 mb low at Sitkinak moves to Prince William Sound at 1006 mb  
early Mon morning, then dissipates by Mon afternoon. A weather 
front will approach the Gulf from the south by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-241200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Near the 
coast, E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Near the coast, S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt, except SE near the coast. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt diminishing 
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming Variable 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241200-
Resurrection Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming Variable less than 10 kt in the
evening. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241200-
Prince William Sound-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to
35 kt near the Hinchinbrook Entrance in the evening. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241200-
Port Valdez-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241200-
Valdez Narrows-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241200-
Valdez Arm-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241200-
Passage Canal-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 30 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 3 ft subsiding after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt by late morning. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241200-
Barren Islands East-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming Variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt by late morning. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. S of
Dangerous Cape, Variable wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt by late evening.
Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241200-
Chiniak Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 
ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241200-
Marmot Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241200-
Shelikof Strait-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable after midnight. Near S end
of Strait, W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft, except building to 8 ft near S end of Strait. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241200-
Kachemak Bay-
250 PM AKDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low is centered over Norton Sound with a sharp
trough digging south over the Alaska Peninsula. The jet stream is
running well south of the Aleutian Islands but then turns
northeast over the Gulf of Alaska then into Southeast Alaska. At
the surface there is an elongated low stretching from south of the
Alaska Peninsula northeast through the Bristol Bay region and
into the Interior. Along and Southeast of this low is where there
is good lifting and southwest flow producing the widespread rain
in south central Alaska and parts of the southwest mainland of
Alaska. High pressure in the western Bering Sea is producing some
gusty northerly winds over much of the Bering Sea with embedded
showers from the colder air aloft in this flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement overall. There is some
discrepancy in the way the complex low over the state this
weekend will act on its southern end. The GFS is a bit of an
outlier with a center just north of the tip of the Alaska
Peninsula while the NAM, GEM, and ECWMF all keep it near the far
eastern end of Bristol Bay by Monday morning. Forecasts reflect
the solution with the low in eastern Bristol Bay that the three
models are showing.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The lower ceilings should improve this evening as winds
switch from a northerly direction to the southeast. The southeast
winds are expected to become gusty for awhile through the evening
but then become light again sometime after midnight. This brings
in the potential for some lower ceilings again but at this time it
looks like the winds a little bit above the surface will be
enough to keep the air mixed enough to diminish the potential of fog
or stratus. However, this also will increase the chances of there
being some low level wind shear with light surface winds and
stronger southeast winds by the 2000 ft level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level shortwave continues to track from the south to
north through the south central Alaska region before exiting to
the north by this evening. This feature continues to bring
widespread rain throughout our AOR with the heaviest precipitation
along the northern coastal communities tonight. While, upstream
the next shortwave rotates around the base of the longwave trough
before tracking just south of Kodiak Island by late Saturday
afternoon. This synoptic feature is reflected at the surface as a
weak 991 mb low pressure system tracking near the east side of
Kodiak Island. As this low tracks north a barrier jet develops
along the North Gulf Coast by Saturday evening resulting in
easterly gale force winds. This brings another round of moderate
to heavy precipitation to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern
coastal communities through the weekend. Therefore, the Flood
Warning will remain in effect through Monday with continued high
water levels on Kenai Lake and the Kenai River aided by the
release of water from the Snow glacier dammed lake. Meanwhile, as
the southeasterly to easterly winds strengthen during Saturday,
look for downsloping conditions to begin for the Anchorage Bowl and
the upper Western Kenai Peninsula area. This produces drier
conditions for the aforementioned region due to the cross barrier
flow. By Sunday the low pressure system moves over the eastern
Kenai Peninsula with the associated frontal boundary falling
apart as it moves inland. Overall the south central Alaska region
will have wet conditions with normal fall temperatures through
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Remnants of an old front stretch across an area from Bristol Bay
to the Alaska Range. This is bringing rain to the area that will
be reinforced by a low heading towards the Alaska Peninsula
tonight. This low will also cause rain to spread across the rest
of southwest Alaska that will additionally be aided by an upper
level low near the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A new surface low will
then develop Saturday night near the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
track towards Bristol Bay on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will dominate the western Bering Sea through the
weekend bringing northerly winds with minimal rain to the majority
of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. The exception will be the
eastern Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula with the weakening front
over the Peninsula this evening and the low that will track
through the eastern Bering Sea Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Sunday evening, with an
upper level low tracking into the eastern Bering Sea and Bristol
Bay area, then crossing the Alaska Peninsula and heading back into
the north Pacific Tuesday. Model guidance struggles with this
feature as it progresses into the later part of next week. Some
solutions bring the upper low into the Panhandle by the end of
next week, where others curve it into the western Gulf of Alaska as
early as Thursday afternoon. As can be expected, the surface
features are also showing a decent spread in their solutions,
keeping lower confidence in the forecast for this time frame. What
can be said with some certainty is that there could be a window
of slightly drier conditions during the early part of next week.
Rain will then put an end to these briefly drier conditions by
mid-week, as the north Pacific system pushes a front into
south central Alaska and parts of the southwest mainland through
the end of the week.

The potential for gusty winds developing along the Gulf of Alaska coast
and Cook Inlet region will also largely depend on which model
solution pans out. Depending on the track of the surface low from
the north Pacific and into the Gulf mid-week, there is some
potential that we can see an increase of gusty northeasterly winds
over the Cook Inlet and Shelikof strait areas, and/or gusty
easterly winds along the North Gulf Coast.

Further west, High pressure will try to build into the Western
Bering Sea and Aleutians through the end of next week when it
starts getting shoved east by a trough tracking in from the west.
Models are loosely showing the track of this next front pushing
into the western Aleutians by the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 121 125.
MARINE...Gale 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP