Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS Anchorage, AK

934 
FZAK51 PAFC 211254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220145-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD MOVES OVER MONTAGUE ISLAND
AT 1000 MB BY SUN MORNING DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH MON MORNING. A 995
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AND
CONTINUES TO 70 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT AT 993 MB BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-220145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220145-
PORT VALDEZ-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220145-
VALDEZ ARM-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220145-
CHINIAK BAY-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220145-
MARMOT BAY-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-220145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
354 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Fri Jan 20 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough extending across Western Alaska from a
closed low over the North Slope is beginning to slowly lift to the
north and east this afternoon. A front is entering the Cook Inlet
region, bringing snow to portions of the Kenai Peninsula and
setting the stage for another round of snowfall for Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, a very
cold arctic air mass is once again filtering into the southwest
mainland on the backside of the trough as precipitation moves east
of the Alaska Range. Convective snow showers continue in broad
cold air advection across a large swath of the Bering as a weak
North Pacific front approaches the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonably good synoptic agreement through the short
term as the trough lifts to the northeast across the mainland and
the strong front enters the Aleutians later this weekend ahead of
an intensifying North Pacific low. 18z runs have also come into
slightly better agreement regarding some of the smaller scale
details regarding the snowfall set to impact Anchorage and Mat-
Su regions tonight, however there is still some uncertainty with
respect to the strength and duration of main snow band and how
quickly snow will taper off on Saturday, which will have large
implications on snow amounts. Primarily utilized the NAM for the
afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The snow will drop prevailing conditions to MVFR through
Saturday morning with periods of IFR conditions as the snow
fluctuates in intensity. The main snow band will dissipate by
Saturday morning, but scattered snow showers and MVFR conditions
look to persist through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front that crossed the Aleutian Range is beginning to stall
across the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley, extending north into the Susitna Valley. Snowfall will
stream north across this region overnight, with up to one foot
expected along the Seward highway through the Kenai peninsula.
Generally amounts up to 6 inches are expected tonight over
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley and the Susitna Valley east of
the Parks highway. As the front weakens in place on Sat, snow
showers will provide an additional 2 inches of snow over the
region. On Sun the upper trough finally passes over Southcentral
with a last round of snow shower activity.

Areas from Prince William Sound to the north and east will remain
fairly dry through the weekend, with continued cold temperatures
inland. The area with snowfall will experience warmer
temperatures on southerly flow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
Very cold temperatures will settle over the area again tonight
into Saturday. The trough from the Bering that brought snow and
blowing snow to the region is slowly moving off to the east. Light
snow continues along the Aleutian range and in parts of Bristol
Bay, but even that should end through the evening hours. In the
wake of the trough, another plunge of arctic air is diving down
from the Chukchi Sea. Saturday will be a relatively quiet day
with dry, calm conditions and some patchy fog in the valleys. A
strong system over the Bering will allow an induced ridge to build
over southwest AK on Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and
allow temperatures to modify a little as flow starts to shift to
southeasterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
Cold air advection snow showers will continue across most of the
Bering and from the Central Aleutians eastward through much of
Sat. Some of these showers will bring periods of heavy snow and
gusty winds causing reduced visibility. Over the Western Bering,
an initial warm front will move in tonight with increasing
southeast winds and some light snow, possibly mixed with rain at
times. Then we shift our attention to the next strong low that
will move towards the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific.

The first impact from this will be strong east to southeast winds
from Adak to Dutch Harbor late Sat night into mid-day Sunday.
Right now it looks like winds will top out in the 65-70 mph range,
but we will be watching how it develops. A bit more cold air or
upper level support and we might see things get close to warning
level. Beyond that, conditions look to be setting up well for snow
and blowing snow conditions over the Pribilofs later Sun. Cold air
will remain in place and east to northeast flow is a very
favorable set-up for reduced visibilities at the islands. We will
also watch this to make sure the storm track remains consistent on
the next few models.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An upper level closed low is centered over the Central Aleutians
starting out next week. As this feature moves eastward the strong
meridional south to north jet streak tracks into the Southeast
Panhandle by Tuesday. This pattern continues through the the next
weekend as the longwave trough moves farther eastward. Meanwhile,
look for a warming trend with the southerly flow into the Gulf
extending through the Southcentral Alaska region. Therefore, the
temperatures in the aforementioned region rises above freezing due
from the warm air advection. This results in more moisture
streaming into the AOR with a wintry mix along the coastal
communities as the warmer temperature filter into the region.
While the interior sets up with a better scenario for moderate
snowfall in favored mountain regions. Meanwhile, the models are
struggling some with the complex low developing in the North
Pacific Ocean before tracking towards the Central Aleutians by
Monday. This system will bring warmer temperatures along the
Aleutian Chain, and the lower Bering. While the rest of the
Bering is influenced by easterly to northeasterly flow through
majority of next week. Since the jet stream remains south of the
Aleutian Chain the storm systems will continue to track along the
Chain before entering the Gulf of Alaska. The forecast confidence
remains average through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150 170 172.
Storm 173-178.
Heavy Freezing Spray 127 130 138 160 165 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
905 PM AKST FRI JAN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     SNOW             COOPER LANDING          60.49N 149.79W
01/20/2017  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW WITH LOW VISIBILITIES STRETCHES FROM TURNAGAIN PASS
            TO COOPER LANDING. VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE-EIGHTH OF A
            MILE IN HEAVY SNOW.

&&

DKOCHEVA