Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

779 
FZAK52 PAFC 220054
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221415-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A 968 MB 
LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 75 NM WEST OF ADAK SUN
AFTERNOON AT 946 MB...THEN MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
AT 963 MB BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 25 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 15
KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221415-
BRISTOL BAY-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221415-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 60 KT. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY FROM
UNALASKA E. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221415-
UNALASKA BAY-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF UNALASKA.
.SUN...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 25 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF UNALASKA.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221415-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 60 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221415-
ADAK TO KISKA-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 65 KT BERING SIDE...S 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 36
FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 36 FT BERING SIDE...29 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221415-
KISKA TO ATTU-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 65 KT. SEAS 36 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 60 KT...EXCEPT N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
SHEMYA. SEAS 36 FT.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221415-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221415-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221415-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-221415-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
354 PM AKST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Fri Jan 20 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough extending across Western Alaska from a
closed low over the North Slope is beginning to slowly lift to the
north and east this afternoon. A front is entering the Cook Inlet
region, bringing snow to portions of the Kenai Peninsula and
setting the stage for another round of snowfall for Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, a very
cold arctic air mass is once again filtering into the southwest
mainland on the backside of the trough as precipitation moves east
of the Alaska Range. Convective snow showers continue in broad
cold air advection across a large swath of the Bering as a weak
North Pacific front approaches the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonably good synoptic agreement through the short
term as the trough lifts to the northeast across the mainland and
the strong front enters the Aleutians later this weekend ahead of
an intensifying North Pacific low. 18z runs have also come into
slightly better agreement regarding some of the smaller scale
details regarding the snowfall set to impact Anchorage and Mat-
Su regions tonight, however there is still some uncertainty with
respect to the strength and duration of main snow band and how
quickly snow will taper off on Saturday, which will have large
implications on snow amounts. Primarily utilized the NAM for the
afternoon package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The snow will drop prevailing conditions to MVFR through
Saturday morning with periods of IFR conditions as the snow
fluctuates in intensity. The main snow band will dissipate by
Saturday morning, but scattered snow showers and MVFR conditions
look to persist through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front that crossed the Aleutian Range is beginning to stall
across the Kenai Peninsula, the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley, extending north into the Susitna Valley. Snowfall will
stream north across this region overnight, with up to one foot
expected along the Seward highway through the Kenai peninsula.
Generally amounts up to 6 inches are expected tonight over
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley and the Susitna Valley east of
the Parks highway. As the front weakens in place on Sat, snow
showers will provide an additional 2 inches of snow over the
region. On Sun the upper trough finally passes over Southcentral
with a last round of snow shower activity.

Areas from Prince William Sound to the north and east will remain
fairly dry through the weekend, with continued cold temperatures
inland. The area with snowfall will experience warmer
temperatures on southerly flow.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
Very cold temperatures will settle over the area again tonight
into Saturday. The trough from the Bering that brought snow and
blowing snow to the region is slowly moving off to the east. Light
snow continues along the Aleutian range and in parts of Bristol
Bay, but even that should end through the evening hours. In the
wake of the trough, another plunge of arctic air is diving down
from the Chukchi Sea. Saturday will be a relatively quiet day
with dry, calm conditions and some patchy fog in the valleys. A
strong system over the Bering will allow an induced ridge to build
over southwest AK on Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and
allow temperatures to modify a little as flow starts to shift to
southeasterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
Cold air advection snow showers will continue across most of the
Bering and from the Central Aleutians eastward through much of
Sat. Some of these showers will bring periods of heavy snow and
gusty winds causing reduced visibility. Over the Western Bering,
an initial warm front will move in tonight with increasing
southeast winds and some light snow, possibly mixed with rain at
times. Then we shift our attention to the next strong low that
will move towards the Central Aleutians from the North Pacific.

The first impact from this will be strong east to southeast winds
from Adak to Dutch Harbor late Sat night into mid-day Sunday.
Right now it looks like winds will top out in the 65-70 mph range,
but we will be watching how it develops. A bit more cold air or
upper level support and we might see things get close to warning
level. Beyond that, conditions look to be setting up well for snow
and blowing snow conditions over the Pribilofs later Sun. Cold air
will remain in place and east to northeast flow is a very
favorable set-up for reduced visibilities at the islands. We will
also watch this to make sure the storm track remains consistent on
the next few models.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An upper level closed low is centered over the Central Aleutians
starting out next week. As this feature moves eastward the strong
meridional south to north jet streak tracks into the Southeast
Panhandle by Tuesday. This pattern continues through the the next
weekend as the longwave trough moves farther eastward. Meanwhile,
look for a warming trend with the southerly flow into the Gulf
extending through the Southcentral Alaska region. Therefore, the
temperatures in the aforementioned region rises above freezing due
from the warm air advection. This results in more moisture
streaming into the AOR with a wintry mix along the coastal
communities as the warmer temperature filter into the region.
While the interior sets up with a better scenario for moderate
snowfall in favored mountain regions. Meanwhile, the models are
struggling some with the complex low developing in the North
Pacific Ocean before tracking towards the Central Aleutians by
Monday. This system will bring warmer temperatures along the
Aleutian Chain, and the lower Bering. While the rest of the
Bering is influenced by easterly to northeasterly flow through
majority of next week. Since the jet stream remains south of the
Aleutian Chain the storm systems will continue to track along the
Chain before entering the Gulf of Alaska. The forecast confidence
remains average through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150 170 172.
Storm 173-178.
Heavy Freezing Spray 127 130 138 160 165 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD