Small Craft Advisory 688, NWS Anchorage, AK

902 
FZAK51 PAFC 162331
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171215-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front will dissipate along the northern Gulf coast this 
evening. A 985 mb low 40 nm northwest of Port Heiden will move to 
335 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 995 mb Sun afternoon...then it 
will weaken as it moves to the eastern Gulf through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-171215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Along the
coast...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt by midnight, gusts to 50 
kt in the evening. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E by late evening. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the evening. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171215-
Resurrection Bay-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt by midnight. Seas 3 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft by midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171215-
Prince William Sound-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 50 kt near the Hinchinbrook Entrance in the evening. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171215-
Port Valdez-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171215-
Valdez Narrows-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171215-
Valdez Arm-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171215-
Passage Canal-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171215-
Barren Islands East-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming Variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming NW after midnight. N of Dangerous 
Cape...SW wind 20 kt becoming Variable 15 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft...except 11 ft N of Dangerous Cape.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft, except 10 ft N of 
Dangerous Cape.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape...NW wind 15 kt
becoming SW after midnight. Seas 10 ft, except 6 ft N of Dangerous 
Cape.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171215-
Chiniak Bay-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas building to 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas building to 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171215-
Marmot Bay-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas building to 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171215-
Shelikof Strait-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt by midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171215-
Kachemak Bay-
331 PM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming Variable less than 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The powerful storm system that developed across the Bering is
currently centered just north of the Alaska Peninsula early this
morning. The strongest winds are along the south and west side of
the low center. Light rain activity is developing throughout the
broad trough that encompasses the southern mainland and
surrounding waters as disturbances rotate around the low center.
Gusty winds across east to west terrain of Southcentral tapered
down overnight as the pressure gradient relaxed along the
northern gulf coast, however gusty flow continues across the gulf
waters as a weak triple point low develops south of Kodiak Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with handling the overall synoptic
pattern through the weekend, therefore only minimal changes were
needed for the morning package using the NAM for adjustments
across Southcentral and the Gulf and the GFS along the Southwest
and Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the next TAF package with
showers in the vicinity through this afternoon. Winds are expected
to prevail out of the north today then diminish becoming light and
variable tonight as the pressure gradient slackens with the storm
system in the Bering diving to the southeast Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Models are still somewhat in disagreement in the short term on
the manifestation of the triple point low as it moves into the
Gulf of Alaska, but are coming into much closer agreement than
yesterday. As a result, gusty winds are expected to develop along
the north Gulf of Alaska coast by mid-morning and approach storm
level by this afternoon. However, the front is expected to push
through quickly, and strong gusts are expected to diminish by
midnight. The associated low pressure system follows quickly and
pushes across the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska by
Saturday night. By Sunday the low will continue to push to the
southeast, well to the south of Southcentral mainland. As a
result, much drier and less windy conditions are expected across
the majority of Southcentral on Sunday.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Bering Sea low has started to push inland ushering rain and
gusty winds to much of the southwest Mainland. The front will
decay and the low will migrate eastward. Cyclonic flow will
continue with shards of vorticity creating waves of unsettled
weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The focus remains on the Bering Sea storm pushing past the
Pribilof Islands this morning and tracking eastward into Bristol
Bay this afternoon. The swath of strongest winds still looks to
clip the Islands, with all eyes on Saint George as the system
pulls to the east. Post frontal precipitation is anticipated today
and slowly diminishing for Sunday. Then a second impulse will
descend into the region bringing the next shot of cold air
advection late Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Mon through Fri)...
The week of September 15th will start out relatively quietly. One
area of low pressure will be pulling away from the North Gulf
Coast and another area will be moving into Bristol Bay. This will
allow for a brief period of drying for most of South Central on
Monday. For Southwest AK, things will once again be wet and a
little breezy. The low over SW pivots and develops a triple point
surface low in the Gulf of AK late Mon into Tue. It will quickly
exit towards SE AK on Tue, once again leaving much of the southern
half of AK in drying offshore flow. Then yet another low follows a
very similar path from the Bering Strait towards western AK,
possibly bringing some gale-force winds to the northern Bering.

After this point, model discrepancies start to increase. The
pattern will essentially be driven by how far the energy south the
energy from the Arctic can make it and what sort of interaction
it will have with a 100-150 kt zonal jet positioned over the North
Pacific. Right now, models do not show signs of any strong
phasing that would result in big storms. The quasi- stationary
"warm front" sits south of the Aleutian chain while various
troughs dropping in to SW AK from the Arctic only bring glancing
blows of cold air to the mainland. However, it is worth noting
that much of the warm air and moisture south of the jet is
tropical in nature and global models generally do not handle those
features well.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181 195.
MARINE...Storms...155 165 170 179 Gales 119 132 150 171 172 173
174 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...MSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
628 AM AKDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ST. GEORGE              56.61N 169.60W
09/15/2017  M78 MPH                             AK   ASOS

1148 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSW UNALASKA          53.88N 166.53W
09/15/2017  M77 MPH                             AK   C-MAN STATION

&&

RANDERSON