Small Craft Advisory 680, NWS Anchorage, AK

079 
FZAK52 PAFC 141211
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 mb North Pacific low deepens to 985 mb as it crosses over
Amchitka this afternoon then strengthens to 971 mb as it moves
over Saint Paul Friday afternoon. This low quickly moves 
southeast to 90 nm northwest of Cold Bay at 975 mb late Friday 
night.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building
to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Gusts to 50 kt out
of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in 
the afternoon. From Port Moller E, seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon from
Nikolski W. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65
kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming W wind 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt becoming W 55 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65
kt from Saint George S. Seas 13 ft building to 24 ft in the 
afternoon. Seas building to 30 ft S of Saint George. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt except NW wind W of Kuskokwim Bay. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
411 AM AKDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt except N 20 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except N wind W of Saint Matthew Island. 
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern features a ridge over the Yukon Territory
and SE Alaska. Upstream there is a vortex over the NE Russia and
the Bering Sea and widespread southwest flow from Kodiak to the
Brooks Range. The latest infrared satellite image depicts a
frontal boundary with a cloud shield spanning from the north slope
to the Alaska Peninsula and the tail end of the cold front
spanning into the North Pacific. A tight pressure gradient has set
up from southcentral to the AK Peninsula. The radar at King Salmon
and Kenai are both pinging into precipitation activity.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the major features of the long
wave pattern through 48 hrs. The run to run consistency in the
short term continues this model cycle. This forecast package
hedged towards the higher resolution models which depict more more
realistic local terrain gap winds. Past 48 hrs, the NCEP Relative
Measure Of Predictability for the Ensemble Mean radically
transitions to low confidence territory in association with the
longwave trough moving towards the mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. With a tight pressure gradient
in place, gusty winds expected to continue today.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Radar this morning indicates some light rain showers scattered
across southern portions of the Southcentral mainland. However,
further to the southwest near the front, radar indicates a much
more solid swath of rain. As this front slowly pushes eastward
today, the ridge to the east will remain well in place across the
eastern Gulf of Alaska. As a result, pressure gradients will
tighten and continue to support cross-barrier and southeasterly
flow. As the front slowly approaches, rain will increase today
into tonight across the upslope regions of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound and Susitna Valley. In contrast,
downsloping will maintain its hold across the Anchorage Bowl,
western Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska Valley. This pattern will
remain locked in place into Wednesday as the ridge maintains its
position. However, by Thursday the front will finally push
eastward into the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Steady rain will continue for the Bristol Bay area, and to a
lesser extent, the Kuskokwim Valley. For the Kuskokwim Delta area,
rain will stay scattered in nature. The disturbance responsible
for the rain today will move northward out of the area late this
afternoon, but areas of rain will continue through Thursday as the
longwave trough remains over the Mainland. Thursday evening the
pattern begins to change as a very fall-like system takes shape in
the Bering Sea. The strong low pressure system will bring a front
to the mainland on Friday morning and begin to increase winds out
of the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A couple of weak lingering troughs will keep showers and areas of
rain across the Bering, but the real story is a developing fall
system for Thursday. A rapidly developing cyclone will bring
gale-force winds on the front side of the system to the central
Bering Sea. As the system reaches peak intensity on Friday
morning, winds on the backside of the system will ramp up with
potentially hurricane-force gusts. The exact track of the system
will determine where the highest swath of winds tracks, but the
Pribilof Islands will be close. Stay tuned to the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term pattern will continue to be active with several
systems moving through the region by the middle of next week. On
Friday, a departing weak surface trough will lead to lingering
rain along the North Gulf Coast. This system will be kicked out of
the area as a strong cyclone forms in the Central Bering Sea,
which will be the main focus of the period. Models are in decent
agreement regarding the early track of the storm, with the low
center deepening to about 970 mb as it moves NE towards the
Pribilofs. Models begin to diverge by Friday night, with the
EC/NAM being more progressive taking the center directly over the
Pribilofs then SE across the AKPEN into the Gulf. The GFS takes
the low just north of the Pribilofs then becomes quasi-stationary
just offshore of the Seward Peninsula, which seems to be the
outlier among the models. Regardless of the exact position, a
very tight pressure gradient combined with cold air advection on
the backside of the low will lead to storm force winds across the
Central and Southern Bering, including the Pribilof Islands, on
Friday and Saturday. The low looks to move into the Gulf by Sunday
bringing good chances of strong winds and heavy rain to coastal
communities over the weekend. A some what quieter pattern looks to
develop early next week as a weaker storm brushes the Aleutians
and high pressure tries to build into the Western Bering by
Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...KVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
114 PM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

AKZ195-141430-
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
114 PM AKDT Wed Sep 13 2017

...Developing fall storm could bring first big wind of the season
to the Pribilof Islands...

We are monitoring the development of a seasonably strong low
pressure system that will begin to impact the Bering Sea on
Thursday. Currently the system looks to reach peak intensity
around or just east of the Pribilof Islands on Friday afternoon
which could bring northwest wind gusts as high as 65 MPH. The
swath of the strongest winds will be highly sensitive to the exact
storm track and is still subject to change. Stay tuned to the
forecast for further information.