Small Craft Advisory 651, NWS Anchorage, AK

369 
FZAK52 PAFC 032340
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041300-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 mb low 275 nm Southeast of Sand Point remains nearly 
stationary and weakens to 994 mb by Tue afternoon. The associated
front wraps across the Alaska Peninsula and Southern Mainland 
into the Gulf of Alaska. A 965 mb Southern Kamchatka low moves to 
25 nm West of Buldir Island at 975 mb with its associated front 
through the Western Aleutians for Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
Bristol Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
Unalaska Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt Gusts to 45 kt in the evening. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except 15 kt W of Atka. Seas 9 ft. Patchy 
fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Patchy 
fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except 15 kt W of Atka. Seas 10 ft. Patchy 
fog.
.MON...N wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt W of Atka. Seas 8 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
Adak to Kiska-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
Kiska to Attu-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft building to 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt except S 20 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. 
Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...N wind 15 kt except S 15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5
ft. Areas of fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island except S 
25 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT Sat Sep 2 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A powerful storm system is spinning south of the western Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon with ASCAT observing 40 kt winds around
the eastern core of the low. The surface occlusion extends along
the eastern Aleutians to south of the Alaska Peninsula with rain
along the boundary. A pre-frontal band which pushed out ahead of
this system this morning is now pushing north across the Kenai
Peninsula and western gulf waters. Inland, a few showers are
occurring across the southern mainland with gusty flow along a
tightening pressure between the approaching surface low and weak
ridging inland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Monday and therefore only minor changes were made to the inherited
forecast. Most of the edits were made using the NAM solutions for
winds edit areas and then used a broad brush approach for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the next TAF package.
Southerly flow is expected to gust through late evening then taper
off overnight. Winds increase again Sunday afternoon, with
possibly stronger gusts early Sunday evening as a front moves to
the northern gulf coast. There is uncertainty in the wind pattern
late Sunday as a coastal ridge develops ahead of the ridge, winds
may shift direction to down inlet depending on where the ridge
axis sets up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The storm force North Pacific low continues to track just south of
the Eastern Aleutians with the frontal boundary swinging through
the Kodiak Island area this evening. This synoptic feature moves
to the northern Gulf by Sunday afternoon accompanied by widespread
wetting rains with potential for moderate to heavy rainfall
through the northern coastal communities. Look for storm force
gusty northeasterly to easterly winds as this front tracks from
the southern to northern Gulf through the weekend. By Monday the
pressure gradients will weaken as the frontal boundary falls apart
as it moves inland over the Southcentral region. Meanwhile, the
Flood Watch remains in effect for the Southeast Prince William
Sound area including the city of Cordova. This coincides with the
frontal boundary as it tracks to the northern Gulf through the
weekend. Look for an upper level 150 knot southerly jet streak to
track through the Southcentral region by Sunday through Tuesday.
This will put the left exit entrance region of the jet through the
Prince William Sound to Cordova area providing excellent lift to
aid increased rainfall amounts as a 500 mb trough swings through
the aforementioned region. The Anchorage Bowl will be under the
influence of downsloping resulting in drier conditions, but there
will be a chance for some showers to spill over the mountains this
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland looks to remain in a showery regime
through Sunday night beneath broad cyclonic flow as one upper low
over Norton Sound is slowly sheared apart and another low south of
the Alaska Peninsula continues to intensify. Showers will be most
widespread from the Dillingham area westward into the Kuskokwim
Delta, with the typical southeasterly downslope areas in the lee
of the Alaska and Aleutian range remaining on the drier side. The
other main forecast concern will be strong winds through the
Kamishak Gap into the Iliamna and Lake Clark NP areas on Sunday as
a strong front associated with the Akpen low moves into the Gulf
of Alaska. Winds should max out around 30-45 mph with gusts
approaching 65 mph Sunday afternoon, then gradually diminish
through Sunday night as the front moves to the north and weakens.
Shower activity will diminish in coverage by Monday as the low
begins to fill in and weaken significantly.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The primary focus will be on the Akpen and surrounding waters
through Sunday night as a powerful low remains just south of the
area. This will bring storm force winds to the Pacific Side of
the peninsula through Sunday, with gale force winds extending
northward into Bristol Bay and westward towards Dutch Harbor.
Steady rain will also impact these areas through the remainder of
the weekend as the low slowly moves northward and weakens.
Elsewhere, the rest of the Bering will remain in a very quiet
pattern beneath building high pressure before attention turns to
the next strong low associated with the remnants of what is
currently Typhoon Sanvu entering the Western Bering on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The low south of the Alaska Peninsula will continue to weaken,
while a secondary low tracks northward through the central Gulf
and into the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound area
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models continue to agree on another
round of precipitation and gusty winds tracking into the northern
Gulf area on Tuesday. However, the models are still struggling
with some timing and strength differences between the GFS & ECMWF
solutions. The GFS, remaining the preferred solution for this
system and very similar to the WPC solution, brings the gusty
winds and rain to the Gulf Coast slightly faster on Tuesday. The
GFS and WPC solutions are also tracking the system further west,
which can result in bringing more rainfall to the interior
portions of Southcentral and the Cook Inlet region. The key
concern remains where the atmospheric river will setup Tuesday
into Wednesday, and which areas will be on the receiving end of a
fair amount of Pacific moisture. Our focus remains over the
southeast Prince William Sound and Cordova areas, where guidance
continues to show moisture streaming northward from the Pacific
and resulting in heavy rainfall over Cordova during the early
part of next week. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for
the Southeast Prince William Sound area from Monday morning
through late Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Typhoon Sanvu will quickly track
through the central Aleutians Wednesday, then cross into the
northern Pacific and track along the Pacific side of the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Thursday. This will bring
widespread gusty winds accompanied by stratus/rain, with the
Bering/Aleutians to be under the influence of strong gusty
northeasterly to northerly winds as it tracks eastward through the
midweek. High pressure will then build in over the western Bering
Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch 135.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 130 131 132 138 150
Gale...125 136 137 139 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174 178
180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PEPE