Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2017

Small Craft Advisory 596, NWS Anchorage, AK

August 12, 2017

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Aug 12, 2017, 3:54 PM AKDT. It was in force for 36 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 12, 2017, 3:54 PM AKDT (23:54 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2017, 3:40 AM AKDT
In force: 36 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

938 
FZAK51 PAFC 122354
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131230-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 mb low 60 nm south of Cape Suckling will move inland near 
Cordova late this evening. Low pressure over southwest Alaska 
will slowly weaken through Monday afternoon with high pressure 
over the southern Gulf. A weather front will approach the 
southwest Gulf Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-131230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131230-
Resurrection Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of Caines Head. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131230-
Prince William Sound-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. Isolated 
thunderstorms after midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the morning
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131230-
Port Valdez-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131230-
Valdez Narrows-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131230-
Valdez Arm-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131230-
Passage Canal-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131230-
Barren Islands East-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131230-
Chiniak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131230-
Marmot Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 30 kt in the evening. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131230-
Shelikof Strait-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 13
ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131230-
Kachemak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 
ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

3 follow-up statements

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 131145
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140100-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the central Gulf will exit to the eastern Gulf this
evening. A second front will enter the southern Gulf tonight and
move to the central Gulf by Mon night. The associated 1003 mb low
located south of the Alaska Peninsula Mon morning will move to 230
nm southeast of Sitkinak at 1001 mb Mon night. 


$$

PKZ119-140100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
subsiding to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140100-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...Higher S of Caines Head. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140100-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140100-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140100-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140100-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140100-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140100-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140100-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140100-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140100-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140100-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft...highest near the outer bay. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK51 PAFC 132357
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141245-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will enter the southern Gulf tonight and move to the 
central Gulf by Mon night. The associated 1002 mb low located 
south of the Alaska Peninsula Mon morning will move to 220 NM
southeast of Middleton Island by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ119-141245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
Resurrection Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
Prince William Sound-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
Port Valdez-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
Valdez Narrows-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
Valdez Arm-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
Passage Canal-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
Barren Islands East-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt, except variable 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
Chiniak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
Marmot Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
Shelikof Strait-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
Kachemak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

997 
FZAK51 PAFC 141140
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150100-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 mb low 65 nm South of Cordova dissipates Mon night. A front
precedes a 1000 mb low 170 nm South of Chignik Mon afternoon and 
moves to 200 nm Southwest of Yakutat at 1004 mb by Wed morning. 
The trailing front lies across the Gulf through Wed morning. 

$$

PKZ119-150100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150100-
Resurrection Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150100-
Prince William Sound-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150100-
Port Valdez-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150100-
Valdez Narrows-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150100-
Valdez Arm-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150100-
Passage Canal-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150100-
Barren Islands East-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150100-
Chiniak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150100-
Marmot Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150100-
Shelikof Strait-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding
to 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150100-
Kachemak Bay-
340 AM AKDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 12, 12:34 PM AKDT, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 12:34 PM AKDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1234 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Well the weather "show" is starting to get underway. The
vertically stacked low over the northwest Gulf continues to advect
plenty of moisture into southern AK with broad southerly flow. It
is very slowing tracking off to the northeast this morning and
will continue that track through the day. Widespread showers are
evident on the Middleton and Kenai radars, with the most
consistent precipitation along the north Gulf coast. This low is
also making for some stronger easterly winds along the coast as it
pushes mass up against the terrain.

The second, stronger low is diving south into Western AK with the
help of a 105 kt jet. The associated cold front is just starting
to move onshore near the Kuskokwim Delta. The rain shield
associated with it is rather impressive, stretching from the
Alaska Peninsula up through the Yukon Valley. Behind the low, an
unstable airmass is apparent with all the open cell cumulus
clouds tracking towards the Pribilof Islands from the Bering
Strait. This is bringing some gusting northerly winds to this
region for the first time in several weeks. Light flow over the
Central and Western Aleutians continues to allow widespread marine
stratus and patchy fog to plague these areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in great agreement with the timing of the front as it
sweeps across the AOR today. Minor differences exist in the exact
placement of the heaviest QPF over the weekend due to small
differences in the handling of weak waves aloft. Overall though,
confidence is high that the front and its associated rain
currently over the west coast will move into Southcentral by
tonight.

Forecast confidence quickly drops off Monday night into Tuesday
as models are having difficulty in the handling of the strength
and position of a low moving into the Gulf. The NAM is the
southern outlier keeping the feature over the southern Gulf while
the EC brings a stronger low and associated rain to the northern
Gulf coast. A more middle ground GFS solution was used in the
handling of this low for the morning forecast package, however
only minor edits were made to Tuesday's forecast due to model
discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The rain will vary in intensity as it moves through in
pulses today. The result will be VFR ceilings which could dip to
MVFR at just about any time, especially in heavier showers. Winds
this evening will be quite tricky. As the front approaches, we
should see an increase in flow from the southeast. Then as the
front starts to move through, the winds will become a bit more
gusty and start to bend to a more south to southwest direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Unsettled weather continues across Southcentral Alaska. A large
cold upper low and associated trough over Bristol Bay this
morning moves over the Kenai Peninsula tonight. The upper low
weakens as it moves into the southeast Copper River Basin Sunday
evening. Cooling temperatures aloft with this feature will
increase the instability across much of Southcentral with isolated
thunderstorms expected over the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin today/evening and the Copper River on Sunday. Thunderstorms
are also possible over the warmer waters of the northern Gulf this
afternoon into Sunday morning. Widespread showers/rain moderate
to heavy at times across Southcentral today/tonight will slowly
diminish from the West overnight and into Sunday. Westerly to
southwesterly gales/gale- force gusts are expected with cold
advection over the Western Gulf this afternoon through Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread precipitation is already on the radar at Bethel. The
surface low is just north of Bethel. As time elapses...anticipate
further deepening and the upper level shortwave will become
negatively tilted. Expect widespread showers with high elevation
snow. The nose of the jet will dive into the AK Peninsula with
the core going directly over Katmai National Park tonight. This
will prove to be a fast moving system although the tight pressure
gradient and associated gusty winds will remain over the AKPEN
for the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The latest ASCAT pass depicts a clear wind shift over the Bering
with the cold front near the Pribilof Islands. Expect the rapidly
moving front to continue to surge south and then the supporting
upper low will curve inland later today. The tail of the front
will bring showers to the Aleutians with the highest storm total
amounts east of Cold Bay. Aloft a vigorous jet core will push
along the eastern Bering and into Bristol Bay resulting in gusty
winds. All the while...a secondary disturbance south of the
Aleutian Chain will propagate eastward with the northern edge of
the precipitation shield taking a glancing blow at the
archipelago.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
One important change in the models early next week has been a
trend towards a more progressive upper level trough over the
mainland late Sunday. As a result there is now general consensus
that weak high pressure will develop over the south mainland Mon-
Tue between the departing low and the next low diving southward
into the Eastern Bering. This high pressure should bring a brief
break in the active weather pattern to much of Southcentral early
next week, however there is very good agreement that a series of
arctic troughs will move through the Mainland and Eastern Bering
into late next week. There are some timing/intensity issues in
the models from these trough, so forecast confidence is low on the
exact details of the long term forecast. Forecast confidence is
however good with the overall trend of continued cool, wet, and
fall-like conditions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 180 181 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO/RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...MC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 12, 3:59 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFC	36 hr
Aug 12, 3:59 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	36 hr
Aug 12, 4:00 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	3 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2017 Every small craft advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.