Gale Warning 381, NWS Anchorage, AK

938 
FZAK51 PAFC 122354
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131230-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 mb low 60 nm south of Cape Suckling will move inland near 
Cordova late this evening. Low pressure over southwest Alaska 
will slowly weaken through Monday afternoon with high pressure 
over the southern Gulf. A weather front will approach the 
southwest Gulf Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-131230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131230-
Resurrection Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher S of Caines Head. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131230-
Prince William Sound-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. Isolated 
thunderstorms after midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the morning
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131230-
Port Valdez-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131230-
Valdez Narrows-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131230-
Valdez Arm-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131230-
Passage Canal-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131230-
Barren Islands East-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131230-
Chiniak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131230-
Marmot Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 30 kt in the evening. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131230-
Shelikof Strait-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 13
ft after midnight.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131230-
Kachemak Bay-
354 PM AKDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 
ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 131145
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140100-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the central Gulf will exit to the eastern Gulf this
evening. A second front will enter the southern Gulf tonight and
move to the central Gulf by Mon night. The associated 1003 mb low
located south of the Alaska Peninsula Mon morning will move to 230
nm southeast of Sitkinak at 1001 mb Mon night. 


$$

PKZ119-140100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
subsiding to 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140100-
Resurrection Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...Higher S of Caines Head. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140100-
Prince William Sound-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140100-
Port Valdez-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140100-
Valdez Narrows-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140100-
Valdez Arm-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140100-
Passage Canal-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140100-
Barren Islands East-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140100-
Chiniak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140100-
Marmot Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140100-
Shelikof Strait-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140100-
Kachemak Bay-
345 AM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft...highest near the outer bay. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the late evening. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK51 PAFC 132357
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141245-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will enter the southern Gulf tonight and move to the 
central Gulf by Mon night. The associated 1002 mb low located 
south of the Alaska Peninsula Mon morning will move to 220 NM
southeast of Middleton Island by Tue evening.

$$

PKZ119-141245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
Resurrection Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
Prince William Sound-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
Port Valdez-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
Valdez Narrows-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
Valdez Arm-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
Passage Canal-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
Barren Islands East-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt, except variable 10 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
Chiniak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
Marmot Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
Shelikof Strait-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
Kachemak Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large closed upper level low near Kodiak Island is tracking
slowly to the east. Short-waves rounding the east side are headed
northward across the Gulf of Alaska and into Southcentral. At
the surface, a series of surface lows are strung out from the
northeast Pacific to the northern Gulf. All of this is bringing
widespread rain to coastal areas, with some rain crossing the
mountains into inland areas.

All eyes are on a potent "autumn-like" high amplitude upper level
trough digging out of the arctic southward across the northern
Bering Sea and along the west coast of Alaska. This trough is
supported by a 100kt+ upper level jet streak on the back side.
Baroclinicity is strong with 850 temps ahead of the trough around
+10 degrees Celsius and temperatures as cold as -10 degrees
Celsius behind the trough. An elongated surface low has formed
on the front edge of the trough, with an area of moderate to
heavy rain pushing onshore along the west coast. Northerly winds
are rapidly strengthening behind the trough across the northern
Bering Sea. Conditions are quite benign out ahead of this trough
across much of Southwest Alaska and westward across the southern
Bering Sea and Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance is in excellent agreement with handling of
large scale features through the weekend and overall forecast
confidence is high. The models are struggling a bit with details
of where precipitation is falling across Southcentral today,
especially inland. With weak cross barrier flow across the coastal
mountains tend to prefer the wetter solutions. There are also
some differences in rainfall amounts over Southcentral this
weekend due to small differences in exact placement of smaller
scale features moving through the trough (or around the upper
level low that forms). However, the storm total QPF fields look
pretty similar as far as average area-wide precipitation totals.
With such a dynamic and progressive system expect there will be
embedded areas of higher precipitation, but it will be a challenge
to hone in on them at this point in time. The other forecast
challenge is falling snow levels as cooler air sweeps into
Southcentral Saturday night and Sunday. The air mass will modify
as it moves eastward, but heavy precipitation will help locally
drop snow levels lower than forecast temperatures may suggest.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Continuous rain this afternoon and evening will allow the
low levels to slowly become more and more saturated. Thus, expect
ceilings below 5000 ft. With low level flow out of the east
ceilings should remain mostly VFR, though there will likely be
some shorter periods of MVFR ceilings in the area. It looks like
there will be a pretty good break in rain overnight tomorrow
through Sat morning which will allow ceilings to lift a bit.

Heavier rain will then move back in around mid-day Saturday and
continue into Sunday. Expect both ceilings and vis to drop to MVFR
for periods of this rain event. With a convective aspect to the
precipitation would expect quiet a bit of variability (with ups
and downs in ceiling and vis).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper low over the western Gulf will elongate southeastward
through tonight, with the southern portion breaking off and
ejecting into the panhandle on Saturday. A plume of moisture on
the northern side of this low will push through Southcentral
Alaska this evening, bringing rain to much of the area. There will
be a brief "break" (showers instead of steady rain) later tonight
through Saturday morning before the next system arrives Saturday
afternoon. This system will push in from the west and is
associated with an upper low that is riding the polar jet. Thus
there is a fairly strong cold front with this system, that will
push to Anchorage Saturday night. Some snow is possible on the
higher peaks late Saturday night into Sunday as the snow levels
could drop to around 4000 feet. The upper low itself will cross
the Kenai peninsula early Sunday afternoon, after which
precipitation chances will quickly diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A potent low pressure system in the northern Bering will drive
much of the weather across the Southwest Mainland over the next
several days. This low is associated with a potent low level jet
that will bring gale force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta coast
especially Saturday. This low is associated with a strong PV
anomaly and downward vertical motion, which will allow much of
these strong winds to reach coastal areas at the surface as the
low pushes inland. In addition, this low is associated with a
plentiful moisture supply. This will result in a soggy weekend
across much of the Southwest mainland as the low slowly pushes
inland and southward.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will remain in place across much of the central and
western Bering in the short term. As a result, widespread fog and
relatively light winds will dominate weather conditions. A front
will bring slightly stronger winds in the small craft category
Sunday to the Central Aleutians. Meanwhile, winds will remain
gusty along the eastern Bering as a low drifts inland to the
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
One important change in the models early next week has been a
trend towards a more progressive upper level trough over the
mainland late Sunday. As a result there is now general consensus
that weak high pressure will develop over the South Mainland Mon-
Tue between the departing low and the next low diving southward
into the Eastern Bering. This high pressure should bring a brief
break in the active weather pattern to much of Southcentral early
next week, however there is very good agreement that a series of
arctic troughs will move through the Mainland and Eastern Bering
into late next week. There are some timing/intensity issues in
the models from these trough, so forecast confidence is low on the
exact details of the long term forecast. Forecast confidence is
however good with the overall trend of continued cool, wet, and
fall-like conditions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ELN
LONG TERM...DEK