Small Craft Advisory 527, NWS Anchorage, AK

008 
FZAK52 PAFC 132332
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141300-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bogoslof Volcano 53 nm west of Dutch Harbor remains active.

A 1011 mb low 375 nm west of St Paul moves 90 nm southwest of 
Gamble Fri afternoon at 1009 mb before weakening into a trough 
over the Bering Strait Sat afternoon. A 1002 mb low moves 300 nm 
west of Shemya Fri afternoon and replaced by a 996 mb low Sat 
afternoon. An associated front moves from the Western Aleutians
Fri afternoon to the Central Aleutians/Bering Sea Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-141300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt...except Variable less than 10 kt N of Chirikof 
Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141300-
Bristol Bay-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141300-
Unalaska Bay-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141300-
Adak to Kiska-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141300-
Kiska to Attu-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt...except W 10 kt S of Cape Newenham. 
Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.FRI and FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 PM AKDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

600 
FZAK52 PAFC 141155
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150030-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the eastern Bering will push inland over Southwest
Alaska this afternoon. Another front over the western Aleutians 
will move to the central Bering tonight and enter the eastern 
Bering Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-150030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150030-
Bristol Bay-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150030-
Unalaska Bay-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150030-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150030-
Adak to Kiska-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150030-
Kiska to Attu-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 AM AKDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
923 PM AKDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Updated Long Term Forecast...

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Little has changed to the omega block that has been present in
the upper levels. A weak wiggle in the flow dropped south along
the Gulf of Alaska and provided enough lift for showers that
worked their way along the Kenai Peninsula and towards Homer. At
the surface, high pressure continues across much of Southcentral
and skies are continuing to clear. Warm air aloft was present on
the morning sounding. Overnight h85 temps were around 11C -
supporting temperatures above 70 degrees this afternoon. Out West
and across the Bering Sea, the stratus under the sprawling high
pressure continues. An interesting note from satellite along the
AKPEN this afternoon is seeing the thermal heating along the
mountains. This diabatic heating is helping erode stratus in the
low levels. This is apparent West of Port Heiden to Cold Bay.
This is not expected to persist as the daytime heating wanes and a
weather front approaches from the West.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
On the synoptic scale, models are in good agreement through the
weekend and then begin to diverge into the medium/long term. In
the short term, all guidance is consistent with moving a shortwave
ridge south, and across Southcentral tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Beyond that time models begin to disagree in different ways.
First, the higher resolution guidance appears to have some
convective feedback and show a bit of energy hanging around the
Susitna Valley. This leads to differences with timing and location
of weekend showers. Guidance is locked on to h85 temps warming
from anywhere from 12 to 16C. Guidance also agrees that these warm
temperatures aloft will wane come this weekend, making our warm
spell short lived.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Some
convection is expected over the Chugach mountains Thursday
afternoon. There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm over
town (Anchorage) but not enough of a chance to introduce it into
the TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge in the short term forecast is the convection
that will be developing tomorrow. While there is confidence in the
upper level wave diving south, each model indicates a slightly
different development of the associated afternoon and evening
convection. Currently scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the Talkeetna mountains, where the upper level wave
is expected to force convection just after peak afternoon
heating. There is more uncertainty as to whether convection will
impact the lower elevations of Anchorage. A local convergence zone
may form by the evening as the Turnagain Arm wind develops which
would support the formation and sustaining of lower elevation
convection. The uncertainty of the intensity and extent of the
Turnagain Arm winds is highly correlated to the westward
propagation of the offshore thermal trough Thursday afternoon, and
the depth of the marine boundary layer. On Friday a weak upper
level wave will help to maintain instability across the region,
but forcing will be much weaker. As a result, convection should be
widespread Friday due to adequate available low level moisture,
but will remain fairly weak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
With ridging overhead, clear skies will prevail tonight.
Additionally, this ridging will bring a possibility of fog near
coastal areas tonight. On Thursday the ridging will be breaking
down allowing for the front moving across the Bering to make it to
coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta. There also looks to be
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Alaska Range in the
afternoon on Thursday. The front will then stall and diminish
along the coast, but with more instability showers will develop
across the rest of southwest Alaska on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The front over the central Bering will slowly track east making
it to the west coast Thursday night where it will stall and
diminish. The parent low for this system will move from near the
Western Aleutians into the northern Bering Thursday night. Behind
the system, another front will approach the Western Aleutians
Thursday night and then push into the Central Aleutians on Friday.
This new front is bringing a strong push of warm air that will
bring more fog to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...
The extended portion of the forecast does not feature any major
changes from the thinking of the past few days. Weak ridging will
try to hold on over much of the mainland, but it will not be
strong. Thus, expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be a
possibility each day, especially along the mountains. Valleys look
to remain dry for the most part at least through Sun. By Monday,
the energy over the Bering will be getting its act together and
making solid eastward progress courtesy of a 100kt sub-tropical
jet aloft. It will arrive as a warm front late Mon night into SW
AK and will bring widespread rainfall to the area. We have upped
PoPs to reflect this.

There is still a hefty amount of uncertainty in how this energy
and the ridge over the southern mainland interact. All models
point to the energy pushing further east by mid-week and shoving
the ridge axis east of the Prince William Sound. This would bring
the rain from SW AK into the Cook Inlet region by late Tue into
Wed. However, some models have also showed the energy diving
southward toward the North Pacific and keeping areas east of the
AK Range dry. The ensemble means have shown much better
consistency with this pattern shift, so the forecast was trended
that direction. The end result is a better chance for rain and
clouds for the mainland by the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MSO